LocalAnalyst: Fall Of Baghdad Would Make Current Gas Prices ‘Look Like A Bargain’

CBS Los Angeles ^ | June 13, 2014

[TigerClaws]

LOS ANGELES (CBSLA.com) — Oil industry analysts are warning a brewing civil war between Islamic militants in Iraq could potentially send gas prices soaring here in the Southland.

KNX 1070′s Pete Demetriou reports the price of crude oil has shot up to $107 per barrel – the highest in 10 months – on reports that soldiers with the al-Qaeda-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and Syria captured two towns in an ethnically mixed province northeast of Baghdad.

[CapnJack]

Sounds like a lot of fatcats hold gas futures and want to cash in big on this hypted up news. Wha a bunch of bull!

[2ndDivisionVet]

WTF? Where is all that shale and fracked oil and gas going? Into storage tanks?

[WilliamofCarmichael]

This posted by another FReeper..

article from 6/5/14:

http://gcaptain.com/kurdish-tanker-hauling-disputed-crude-leaves-moroccan-port-without-unloading/

The Kurds are trying to sell their own oil on the open market.
Baghdad has been trying to hamper those efforts

Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) pipeline goes through Turkey. Baghdad has long been irritated by KRG - Ankara commerce. KRG like will likely remain sovereign also likely with Turkey's help.

It has been well known that..

". . . Ankara has entered into energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), something which has infuriated the central Iraqi government in Baghdad but which has helped the Kurds further build a foundation for their independence [yes true that] Ankara has been so alarmed by the growing Kurdish autonomy [in Syria and tolerated by Syria, I believe] that it reportedly has provided support for [ISIS] in their fight against the Kurdish militia that controls the region [of Syria],which is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)." [my emphasis]

more..

". . . the takeover by ISIS in recent days of Mosul and other cities . . . Ankara will likely not only have to deepen its relationship with the KRG . . . but also alter its approach to the Kurds in Syria [I ask: but demand that the Kurds in Syria reject the PKK?]"

more..

"Explains Lehigh University professor and Turkey expert Henri Barkey in an analysis piece on Al-Monitor website: The crisis may force the Turks to rethink some of their policies in Syria. To date, Ankara’s friendship with the Kurds stopped in Iraq; Erdogan and his government have taken an uncompromising position against Syrian Kurds led by the Democratic Union Party of Kurdistan (PYD), an offshoot of the Turkish Kurdish insurgent group the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PYD has emerged as the strongest Kurdish group in Syria and has put together an impressive fighting force to defend its territory from both ISIS and the regime. The idea of another autonomous Kurdish region on its borders after the KRG has been anathema to Ankara. Paradoxically, the PYD’s armed elements are some of the only ones that have scored blows against the jihadists. In the face of the ISIS sweep, the PYD and the KRG, which have also had antagonistic relations, appear to be cooperating on defensive measures against ISIS. Turkey may have to reconsider its boycott of the Syrian Kurds to enlarge the anti-ISIS coalition." [my emphasis]

I don't think that the KRG wants anything to do with Turkey's enemy the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorists -- our State Dept calls the PKK a terrorist group.

[Gritty]

It's a good thing we have the Keystone Pipeline on stream pumping all that oil down to those new refineries in the Gulf!

Oh, wait...

[Red Steel]

It would be another win win for Obama.

[familyop]

The bad news:

Shale oil plays are rather short in duration due to costs, and we’re still importing natural gas (liquified for shipping, shipped, then deliquified for use).

U.S. Natural Gas Imports by Country
(Volumes in Million Cubic Feet, Prices in Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_a.htm

Much LNG and LPG are also being exported to other countries at times for profits.

The good news:

Sorry I didn’t keep some links, but the information on shale gas (not oil) is easy to find with a search. Domestic shale gas production is increasing and will increase for the foreseeable future. Shale gas plays will last longer and be a little more durable against fluctuating oil prices. The Chinese are building natural gas stations here and there in our country for dispensing vehicle fuel, and much of our trucking will probably be running on natural gas before long.

More good news:

If Iraq really lights up, the skyrocketing fuel prices shouldn’t go on for long, because shale oil production will then be much more profitable.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Yes, that is a factor. Many now unprofitable plays will become doable.

[umgud]

Doesn’t all of this concern presume all Iraqi oil will be taken out of the world market?

[familyop]

"LocalAnalyst: Fall Of Baghdad Would Make Current Gas Prices ‘Look Like A Bargain’"

Here's the reason for that. Imagine the effect of an oil shortage of only 1% with respect to demand. From the buyers' perspective, they need the oil, and they need to have it shipped now (or for many, next month, bought in advance). One percent would be enough of a shortage to cause some intense purchasing competition between buyers.

Given the real international market concerns lurking behind the sponsored opinion articles on oil markets, a very small shortage could easily spark World War III.

"Dry land is not just our destination, it is our destiny!" --"Deacon" character finishing his speech to his people in the movie, "Waterworld"

[Secret Agent Man]

and obama is praying to allah it happens.

[familyop]

I forgot to add some information to that last comment. Envision a nation’s military force involved in a pursuit (as in moving many aircraft and mechanized vehicles from one point to another). Such pursuits use extreme amounts of fuel.

Put yourself in the shoes of politicians and commanders in that nation. The concern is the possibility of being in that 1% who didn’t get the oil shipped, or maybe even only getting a portion of the oil needed to win battles.

Or imagine 1% of the traffic stopping in a country. That’s 1% of economic activity not happening with business deals called off for some companies afterwards.

That’s why so much competition between purchasers and oil consuming nations with only a small chance of a small shortage. Surplus supplies are necessary for preventing much higher prices (no chance of shortages).

[SuziQ]

Oh, so that’s why Obama isn’t interested in Iraq. He WANTS gas prices to skyrocket! All the better for his electric car manufacturer buds.

[terycarl]

I understand the “concept” of the world price of oil....what I don’t understand is if we produce more oil than we consume....and we are certainly capable of doing that, what the hell do we care what happens in the middle east>??????????

[zzwhale]

why........ iraq only produces for EU not USSA
plus we are fracking and exporting oil....
splain me pleze