Posted on 06/22/2014 7:51:33 PM PDT by doug from upland
How can the U.S. advance? We walk through the scenarios … All of them
The United States was seconds away from reaching the six-point plateau for the first time in the team’s group stage history, but thanks to Silvestre Valera’s 95th minute equalizer, a place in the knockout round is still slightly out of reach. Though the 2-2 draw leaves them tied atop Group G with Germany at the 2014 World Cup, the team may still need a result on Thursday to the second round.
Then again, they may not. If things break in the U.S.’s favor in the group’s finales, the team may already have enough points to make the final 16. Ahead of Thursday’s match against the Germans in Recife, here are the scenarios that will lead the U.S. out of Group G:
(Group standings, in points and goal difference: Germany, 4 pts., +4; United States, 4 pts. +1; Ghana, 1 pt., -1; Portugal, 1 pt., -4.)
If the United States beats Germany …
… they win Group G and face the second place team from Group H (currently Algeria).
If the United States draws with Germany …
… they finish second in Group G, behind the Germans. They’ll then face the winner of Group H (currently Belgium).
[ MORE: Valera equalizer stuns U.S. | Man of the Match rankings | Talking points ] [ MORE: Soccerly covers the World Cup ]
If the United States loses to Germany, the team still advance in second place if …
Warning: This is where it gets confusing.
1. Ghana and Portugal draw; or 2. Ghana beats Portugal (a) by only one goal, and (b) the U.S. loses by only one goal, and (c) Ghana doesn’t outscore the U.S. by two or more goals on the day; or 3. Portugal beats Ghana and fails to make up the five-goal gap in difference (see more, below).
Thanks to Portugal’s lopsided loss to Germany, the U.S. has a huge edge in that first, goal difference tiebreaker. Portugal would either have to blow out Ghana or benefit from the Germans routing the U.S.
Here are the scenarios — all of them — some of which involve the word “lots”:
If Germany beats the U.S. by five or more, Portugal only needs to beat Ghana to advance. If Germany wins by four, Portugal advances if they beat Ghana at least two. If they win by one, Portugal can still advance if they end up with more total goals than the U.S. The Americans currently have four. Portugal has two. If the teams end up with the same number of goals, they’ll draw lots, leaving Group G’s second knockout round spot up to chance. If Germany wins by three, Portugal advances if they win by three or more. Win by two: Total goals, then lots. Win by only one? They’re out. If Germany wins by two, Portugal advanced if they win by four of more. Win by three: Goals and lots. Two or less: They’re done. If Germany wins by one, Portugal advances with a five-goal win. Four? Goals, lots. Three of fewer? Adeus. Confused yet? This might make it easier. Here are the FIFA tiebreakers:
1. Goal difference in all group stage matches 2. Goals scored in all group stage matches 3. Points in matches between the tied teams 4. Goal difference in matches between the tied teams 5. Goals scored in matches between the tied teams 6. Draw lots
I gotta tell ya. That was a GREAT game. My entire neighborhood here in Pasadena was crazy. People on decks watching and screaming. It was a blast.
The thing i like about soccer is that it’s not played on camels......YET!
We are in big trouble.
Both Ghana and Germany are playing with an extra day’s rest.
We saw what playing in Manaus took out of Italy and England.
Assuming Ghana and Germany win, the only way we make it out is if both teams win by 1 goal. If either wins by more than that, we’re out.
And even then it comes down to goals scored.
One thing for sure is that games such as this one build a lot of tension if you have a rooting interest. The US go-ahead goal brought a YESSS!!! out of me as I leaped from my chair.
But they are all jet-lagged. And that always makes a difference.
The bar I was in exploded.
That may help.
Who won?
I think it is more complicated than that.
There was a substitution right as stoppage time began and the referee added time for it onto the original four minutes.
As for advancing, not allowing a free header when you're playing with THREE center backs in the last half minute of added time is a great way to start. Don't really care if they drew the fourth-ranked team in the world. This one feels like a loss.
They also had the ball in the corner, and cheaply gave it back. You should ALWAYS get a corner kick out of that, and had they gotten it, most likely they run out the clock.
1. Get some real soccer players, instead of the current weekend warriors. :)
Besides often not having enough points scored, the really screwed up thing about soccer is the timekeeping. In this age of technology, why can’t they have the official time for all to see? When there is delayed action on the field, the ref stops his watch and it is there up on the board for all to see. Then they actually play 90 minutes and everyone is going to know exactly when it ends.
The Bears.
Agreed. Between that and Bradley giving away possession against Ghana late, it’s ridiculous. Chances to advance in a World Cup don’t grow on trees but certain players on this team sure seem to think they do.
dfwgator wrote:
We are in big trouble.
Both Ghana and Germany are playing with an extra day’s rest.
No kidding! Ghana will beat Portugal. That’s a given. We will be lucky if it is only one goal difference. Then, if Germany beats us by only a goal we will be OK, most likely.
But Bradley’s idiotic lackadaisical lapse at the end of the match means we have to play to win. There’s no guarantees! Had he played hard and kept game awareness 15 more seconds and simply booted the ball into row 23-F he could have rested completely this Thursday, not even mentioning that Jones and Beckerman and Dempsey could all have done with some rest,too. Now they all have to climb back out there and play a game that matters with Germany!
Bradley is the worst thing to happen to the Men’s National Team since Claudio Reyna.
Oldplayer
Ever since Ghana got that tie with Germany, I’ve had a bad feeling.
My best case scenario did have the US going 1-1-1, but that assumed that Germany won out. Ghana getting a tie against them threw a monkey wrench into the whole thing.
Even in rural Oklahoma, we have enough soccer knowledge to know that the German-Ghana tie was a bad thing. Ghana is a good side and they are tough and motivated. They might kill Portugal by more than two or three goals if they score early. Portugal has nothing to play for at that point. Despite Portugal's late heroics tonight, I don't think they are all that mentally tough. There has been team dissension all along.
Just my opinion.
Olplayer
It’s soccer...
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