Posted on 06/23/2014 9:13:04 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Overshadowed by Iraq's intensified security crisis, the country certified the results of the 30 April parliamentary elections on 1 June - triggering the start of efforts to ratify the next prime minister and his cabinet with at least 163 seats in the 325-member parliament.
Two-term Prime Minister Nouri Maliki and his State of Law alliance performed well, winning 92 seats directly and being able to count on at least a further 10 to 20 seats held by close allies.
Mr Maliki's Shia opponents could muster about 60 seats, the Kurds a further 53, the numerous Sunni Arab or nationalist lists a total of 60, and independents carrying the balance.
Competing as an MP in Baghdad, Mr Maliki won 721,000 votes - by far the highest personal vote of any Iraqi politician and even more votes than the 622,000 he gathered in 2010.
This performance put Mr Maliki in a commanding position to overcome opposition to a third term in office.
Indeed, when I met him and members of his inner circle in March they were confidently predicting their victory and making detailed plans for the third term.
The loss of government control across northern Iraq has arguably changed the picture.
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
Might as well, because they’ve tried everything else. ISIS advances unhindered
Didn’t the Peshmerga hinder them?
A couple of skirmishes, but ISIS have not really advanced against the Kurds in their controlled region. Not much reason to either. Malaki is the target.
Yes, but the territory the Pesh are fighting over doesn’t do much to cut the Mosul-Baghdad route. The Peshmerga are holding in Kirkuk, and from what I read recently, mounted an offensive on Jalula. Kirkuk is southeast of Mosul and Northeast of Tikrit, and can be avoided if your goal is to link Baghdad and Mosul.
Why should Maliki trust Obama?
I worked on a PSD team for the State Dept in Iraq from ‘07-’12. Protected State Dept election monitors in ‘09. Maliki lost to Alawi, who everybody could get along with. Alawi is kind of secular, doesn’t play the radical islam thing, ain’t no fan of the Iranians and just wants to get his country back to some level of normalcy.
Maliki refused to vacate the office and vowed a fight if they tried to force him out. They settled on giving Alawi some type of position, but he no one could touch Maliki. When he was in exile, from Sadam, he lived in Iran. He is their bitch. They’ve been propping him up since day one and they aren’t going to let him go anywhere.
Pity the new Iraqi military so far just can’t & not willing to fight ISIS (minus ‘skirmishes’ with the Kurds), even to save Malaki. Perhaps one should take recent events as real vote against Maliki.
This part of the world cannot be democratized. The people are tribal and that’s how they have always run things. We’re foolish to believe otherwise. And the parts of Iraq lost to ISIS are gone forever. No Iraqi army will ever take them back. This civil war is almost over. Can ISIS take Baghdad? Probably not right now. But in time, as America withdraws, they can. And this part of the world has nothing but time on their hands. We want things wrapped up right now. They will wait for as long as it takes.
I do think they can and will take Baghdad.
Maybe manipulating the formation of the next government, now that the election results are in, was the driver to set some of these big pieces in motion.
Before Maliki gets selected as Prime Minister for another term and drives the country even further the way he has been going, other players may have decided to make a big push to change direction. One possibility.
I would suggest that any attempted putsch to get rid of Maliki include enticing golden parachutes for him, like a palace in Dubai and a bank vaults in Switzerland and Tehran.
A question we should perhaps have asked before now, no?
Is Maliki Arabic for Diem?
When the US (i.e. Obama Admin) did not back Allawi after his election victory, is when we (i.e. the Obama Admin) handed Iraq to Iran.
Maliki is the moderate face of Iranian influence/control. They could go with with Mookie Sadr, if they really want to let their freak flag fly, and abandon all semblance of anything but Iranian-style Shi’ite religious dictatorship, or another “moderate” front man. The Iranians always play that game of posing one of the team as “moderate” against another playing the “hardliner” to fool the West into supporting their agenda anyway.
Or maybe they will be squeezed hard enough to concede to something more inclusive (but likley still less than inclusive than Iyad Allawi would have been). It would be a lot more likely that their nuts could be squeezed hard enough, if we had a different administration in the US.
I’ve got my popcorn ready to watch the show.
CC
I have my doubts that ISIS can take Baghdad. They have 5000 fighters tops. It was one thing to beat the Iraqi Army, but it seems like they barely have enough to hold their territory. When they get to Iraq they will be city fighting. The Army may not put up a fight, but the locals probably will. That city fighting takes a lot of lives.
“I have my doubts that ISIS can take Baghdad...That city fighting takes a lot of lives.”
I agree that Baghdad should be a lot harder. It has been purged of a lot of Sunnis, and De-Ba’athification has left fewer potential turncoats there to turn things over to the attackers. The Iranians and the Maliki Government have had some time to muster for a defense or counter-attack. Whoever controls Baghdad has a claim on the whole country, so the stakes are higher.
If the rebels are going to take Baghdad, they better do it quick, because it will probably get harder with time. ISIS alone has no chance, only a large mobilization of Ba’athists and Sunni tribes could pull it off, but even that would be likely to degenerate into a Stalingrad-like bloodbath.
The Sunnis would probably be wiser to consolidate all the easy pickings and prepare to defend them.
If they are Bat-Shit crazy enough to go for it - stock up on popcorn, because we will probably be able to see the smoke from outer space.
If one changes the name to Obama then he should be asked to resign by foreign leaders as he rejects working with Republicans and uses his pen and phone to legislate
The lesson in Iraq is, it’s a lot easier to conquer an area than it is to keep it.
“The lesson in Iraq is, it’s a lot easier to conquer an area than it is to keep it.”
Amen to that.
Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.
In Iraq more than in most other places, loyalties shift quickly and frequently - just add money.
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