Posted on 07/17/2014 2:02:35 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Noah Rothman wrote up Quinnipiac’s gubernatorial poll yesterday, prompting me to wonder over at Townhall whether the polling outfit was holding back its Senate numbers for separate release. We now have our answer. A virtual deadlock, and advantage Gardner:
The closely-watched U.S. Senate race is tied with 44 percent for U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican challenger, and 42 percent for Sen. Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 10 percent are undecided. This compares to the results of an April 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University showing Sen. Udall at 45 percent to 44 percent for Rep. Gardner. Today, Udall leads 86 – 5 percent among Democrats, while Republicans go to Gardner 85 – 5 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for Udall and 40 percent for Gardner. Colorado voters give Udall a negative 42 – 46 percent job approval rating, his lowest net approval ever and down from a 42 – 42 percent split in April. Voters say 49 – 40 percent that Udall does not deserve to be reelected, tying his lowest score on that measure.
Gardner and Udall have each consolidated their respective bases, with independents cutting ever so slightly in favor of the Democratic incumbent. In most national polling, independents are leaning heavily toward the GOP this cycle, so Colorado appears to be anomalous. Notable is the fact that this poll is among registered, not likely, voters — so if nationwide trends hold up, November’s electorate could tilt further in Gardner’s favor. On the other hand, the Colorado Left’s operation has been ruthlessly effective at turning out voters in recent cycles. In 2012, RealClearPolitics‘ final polling average showed Barack Obama very narrowly leading Mitt Romney in the state; the president ended up carrying Colorado by a comfortable five-and-a-half points. The GOP hasn’t won a major statewide race there since 2004. All of which is to say that while this survey is no doubt welcome news to the Gardner campaign, there is much work to be done. From Udall’s perspective, there are a number of worrisome nuggets in the Q-poll data, beyond his all-time low scores on job approval and “deserve to be re-elected” trackers:
- Gardner leads by five points on helping the middle class, with the Republican challenger outpacing the incumbent on the measure of who “cares about [voters'] needs and problems.” Udall’s struggling badly on bread-and-butter Democratic advantages.
- The two candidates are tied on handling the minimum wage and immigration, issues Democrats typically try to exploit.
- Udall is getting clobbered on government spending and gun control; Gardner has clear a advantage (eight and 13 points, respectively) on each.
- President Obama’s approval rating in Colorado remains deep underwater, at 39/58.
Udall has a slight edge on “energy and environment” issues, but Gardner has been pounding away on the Keystone XL, which Udall (and one of Udall’s wealthiest benefactors) opposes. The Democrat has recently been forced to backpedal away from an anti-fracking initiative, as Democrats worry that Republicans are gaining the upper hand on energy. Perhaps the most concerning data point for Gardner — aside from his nine-point deficit with women, for which he compensates with a double-digit lead among men — is that voters split exactly evenly (41/41) on which candidate is preferable on Obamacare. Polling from earlier this year shows that Colorado voters strongly disapprove of the law, yet Gardner is thus far failing to capitalize on what should be a winning issue for him. He’ll have an opportunity to prosecute that case in debates and over the air, and he’ll have plenty of resources on the latter front. The Republican hauled in a substantial $2.7 million in Q2 fundraising, though he still trails the money race overall. The Democratic incumbent’s coffers were topped off earlier this month when President Obama held a high-dollar fundraiser for Mark Udall, a glitzy event that wasn’t attended by, er, Mark Udall:
President Barack Obama on Wednesday will headline his first fundraiser for a Senate Democrat in danger of losing this fall — but the candidate, Colorado Sen. Mark Udall, won’t be by his side. In a last minute switch, Udall’s campaign says the senator plans to stay in Washington to vote on Obama’s nominee to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The decision is likely to spark new questions about the political risks for vulnerable Democrats in being linked with an increasingly unpopular president.
It’s also worth pointing out. Polling in this race is all over the map. A new Marist/NBC poll gives Udall a seven-point lead over Gardner, while Gravis shows Gardner ahead by four. I’ll leave you with a pair of web ads from the Gardner campaign, shackling Udall to the aforementioned “increasingly unpopular president:”
Udall touting Obama’s commitment to veterans (in the process of dodging question about whether he’ll campaign alongside the president) is especially painful in light of the VA scandal that has since exploded. By the way, Mark Udall votes with the president with whom he doesn’t want to be seen 99 percent of the time. The Gardner camp would be wise to drive that message home relentlessly. Independents may not care for Udall’s rigid partisanship and slavish devotion to a president of whom they disapprove by a whopping (35/61) margin, according to Quinnipiac.
Ping.
The poll finds that Colorado independents despise Obama, so the GOP should wrap Obama around Udall’s neck like a pretzel.
Udal has a 99% record voting for out of state billionaires instead of the interest of the actual citizens of Colorado. It is time for Coloradans to take back our self respect and take back our government and
An incumbent cannot be re-elected if he’s at 42% The 10% that are “undecided,” will break at least two to one for Gardner.
“On the other hand, the Colorado Left’s operation has been ruthlessly effective at turning out VOTERS in recent cycles.”
Perhaps replace “voters” with “votes” and you’ll understand why the Democrats hate Voter ID so much.
Colorado’s Left turning out the deceased voters?
Gardner needs to mock these ads and do some of his own - telling women to vote with their brains - and not allow the DEMS to see them as sex objects - which they do.
Just a hunch but this race might be the difference in merely “control” of the senate and REAL control where an idiot like McCain or Grahamnesty can, with selective votes, hand us defeat after defeat. I think this is a very important race.
There’s now 3 GOP-held Senate seats which are in jeopardy for November: McConnell, Cochran in MS (if he is not removed) and Graham in SC (with the entry of Tom Ravenel as an Independent).
Georgia’s open seat is more vulnerable than Cochran or Graham (even with what’s his name the cokehead splitting the vote in SC).
I don’t foresee losing any of them, including KY. These states will reject Obama.
One headline about this poll reads that the candidates are tied, because 2 points is within the margin of error. Something tells me that if Udall was ahead by 2 it would say that in the headline.
Quinnipiac also has Beauprez ahead of Hinclepooper by 44%-43%.
Another recent poll has Gardener up 47%-43% with a meaty 6% for the losertarian.
Remember, the problem isn’t with Zero, the problem is with the deeply flawed RINO incumbents.
That’s a problem for you, I wouldn’t say the average freeper is representative of the general electorate. For them the overriding issue of the campaign is most certainly Obama, period. Freepers are significantly to the right of and (generally) much more politically tuned in than the vast majority of voters.
Hating these men doesn’t make them more vulnerable than they actually are.
Hutto is a fairly weak challenger, he can only win if Ravenel does VERY well, it’s hard to see a convicted cokehead Paulbot doing that well. What pitiful choices SC had/has in this election.
Childers in MS is a stronger nominee but I have a LOT of trouble seeing him win. Cochran is well ahead in the polls. Half the GOP electorate is not gonna stay home because they’re angry at how Cochran won/stole the primary, maybe freepers would but again, that’s not the general electorate.
The open seat in GA is unquestionably more vulnerable than those 2 seats, which I would not categorize as very vulnerable at all.
Like I said I think we’ll hold all our seats including KY. These are Republican states and the communist nominees won’t be winning in a good GOP midterm, that just doesn’t happen. And thank god it won’t happen because I have to disagree strongly with you, adding 3 democrats to the Senate would be like pouring gasoline on a fire in a munitions factory.
If our next President is a Republican he/she would be seriously hampered by a rat controlled Senate.
Colorado Ping ( Let me know if you wish to be added or removed from the list.)
An incumbent cannot be re-elected if he’s at 42% The 10% that are “undecided,” will break at least two to one for Gardner.
Excellent point!
Some encouraging news.
Polling Data
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Udall (D)
Gardner (R)
Spread
RCP Average 6/5 - 7/14 — — 44.5 43.5 Udall +1.0
Quinnipiac 7/10 - 7/14 1147 RV 2.9 42 44 Gardner +2
NBC News/Marist 7/7 - 7/10 914 RV 3.2 48 41 Udall +7
Rasmussen Reports 6/25 - 6/26 750 LV 4.0 43 42 Udall +1
Magellan Strategies (R) 6/5 - 6/8 747 LV 3.5 45 47 Gardner +2
All Colorado Senate - Gardner vs. Udall Polling Data
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.