Skip to comments.Outbreak of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone [CDC Update]
Posted on 08/03/2014 5:48:32 AM PDT by Covenantor
The World Health Organization, in partnership with the Ministries of Health in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Nigeria announced a cumulative total of 1323 suspect and confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and 729 deaths, as of July 27, 2014. Of the 1323 clinical cases, 909 cases have been laboratory confirmed for Ebola virus infection.
In Guinea, 460 cases, including 339 fatal cases and 336 laboratory confirmations of EVD, were reported by the Ministry of Health of Guinea and WHO as of July 27, 2014. Active surveillance continues in Conakry, Guéckédou, Boffa, Fria, Siguiri, and Kourourssa Districts.
In Sierra Leone, WHO and the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone reported a cumulative total of 533 suspect and confirmed cases of EHF as of July 27, 2014. Of these 533, 473 cases have been laboratory confirmed and 233 were fatal. Districts reporting clinical EVD patients include Kailahun, Kenema, Kambia, Port Loko, Bo and Western Area, which includes the capital, Freetown. More recently, Tonkolili, Bambali, Moyamba, and Bonthe Districts have also reported confirmed cases of EVD. Reports, investigations, and testing of suspect cases continue across the country.
As of July 27, 2014, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia and WHO reported 329 clinical cases of EVD, including 100 laboratory confirmations and 156 fatal cases. Suspect and confirmed cases since May have been reported from Lofa, Montserado, Margibi, and more recently, Bomi, Bong, Nimba and Grand Gedeh Counties. Laboratory testing is being conducted in Monrovia.
In Nigeria, WHO and the Nigerian Ministry of Health reported one probable case as of July 27, 2014. This case has not yet been laboratory confirmed. CDC is in regular communication with all of the Ministries of Health (MOH), WHO, MSF, and other partners regarding the outbreak. Currently CDC has personnel in all three countries assisting the respective MOHs and the WHO-led international response to this Ebola outbreak. Based on reports from the Ministry of Heath of Guinea, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia, the Ministry of Health of Nigeria and WHO 29 July 2014.
...more info and links to previous updates at CDC site.
The CDC contagion model is exponential. The more infected the greater the acceleration of the contagion.
Note that this data is dated July 27, 2014, 8 days ago. We can expect updates sometime this week on the status of the 909 laboratory confirmed cases. Unless, as was the previous case in the Congo, there is a news clamp down. Anticipate a large number of deaths.
CDC sidebar note:
Genetic analysis of the virus indicates that it is closely related (97% identical) to variants of Ebola virus (species Zaire ebolavirus) identified earlier in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon.
IIRC that 3% variance is about the same between humans and primates.
Could DDT have helped against this ? Just asking.
on 29 July 2014, the National IHR Focal Point for Nigeria confirmed that the probable EVD case notified to WHO on 27 July 2014 was symptomatic at the time of arrival in Nigeria and that 59 contacts (15 from among the airport staff and 44 from the hospital) have been identified so far. The report also confirms that the patient travelled by air and arrived in Lagos, Nigeria, on 20 July via Lomé, Togo, and Accra, Ghana.
The sample from this case is yet to be sent to the WHO Collaborating Centre at the Institute Pasteur in Dakar, Senegal, due to refusal by courier companies to transport this sample.
Though only one probable case has been detected so far in Nigeria, Ebola virus infection in this country represents a significant development in the course of this outbreak.
Aids, H1N1, Hantavirus, MERS, West Nile, Ebola, Chikungunya, Avian, Coronavirus, Small Pox, TB.
War on Terror, War on Drugs, Suitcase nukes, Bio-terror, EMP attack, Attack on Power grid.
Natural disaster scare:
Melting polar Ice, Solar flare, Asteroid impact, Increased cyclone activity, Drought, Global warming, Hole in the Ozone, Global Climate change, Acid Rain.
Think about it for a moment. None of these have ever amounted to much of anything. All of this is an effort to keep the masses off balance and in a state of fear. Easier to control folks when they are constantly fearful, then the gubbamint can always swoop in and save the day.
Indeed. That’s what makes the 900+ laboratory confirmed cases worrisome. I don’t think they have any where near the number of personnel necessary to effectively trace and track the 900 contacts. Easy when Ebola was in small villages, but now released in Africa’s urban hells...
Very doubtful as DDT is a pesticide that kills mosquito larvae. We're dealing with a virus currently believed to reside in animal hosts.
Nope. This is not spread by an insect vector.
It’s spread from reservoirs in animal populations, with the main reservoir probably being fruit bats. From them it intermittently spreads out into the wider animal population.
Humans can get it either from preparing or possibly eating meat from these animals, or from contact with body fluids of infected people. Given the symptoms of the disease, body fluids tend to be spread far and wide, particularly in the last stages.
So DDT is just irrelevant to the issue. Possibly something that would wipe out fruit bats would be effective. :)
From what I can tell from what I’ve read, once it overwhelms the system which doesn’t seem to take much because the number of care givers is small, all bets are off and there is no stopping it unless everyone quarantines themselves from contact with other people.
Even in developed countries that would be hard, not going to happen in undeveloped countries.
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the Bring Out Your Dead ping list (formerly the Ebola ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the Bring Out Your Dead threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Okay, so why is the Gubmint downplaying this one?
Importantly, the growth rate of ebola is *not* exponential, nor is it a Natural logarithm (’e’), or logarithmic.
Population growth is exponential, but only in an ideal environment. Ebola is handicapped in several ways, the first of which it is reliant on contamination.
“The potential for widespread Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infections is considered low as the disease is only spread by direct contact with the secretions **from someone who has symptomatic disease** or contaminated objects. The quick onset of symptoms makes it easier to identify sick individuals and limits a person’s ability to spread the disease by traveling.”
There are many parallels with the pandemic of 1918 with influenza and most recently, the Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis outbreak of 1971. One was highly contagious and the other was vector driven. Zaire Ebola has shown it can be airborne irrespective of what the general publicity that is being offered.
An Ebola break-out in a large city will turn residential sky scrappers into death traps...
Ebola’s virus can live outside the body for days - - haunting elevator buttons, grocery cart handles and air conditioning duck work...
High density inner city neighborhoods will be epicenters of the slaughter. The CDC needs to STOP importing the Ebola virus in the bodies of it’s victims. It’s the wrong choice.
The only problem is they have been saying that the initial symptoms mimic a double handful of other maladies - it might be easy enough to have a number slip through unless all of those with any symptoms for a variety of maladies are treated as Ebola cases until proven different. One or two people slipping through the cracks can easily start a number of new hot spots.
This runs into a different problem for Ebola. From onset of symptoms and ability to infect others, to death is typically only 10 days.
“Signs and symptoms of Ebola usually begin abruptly with an influenza-like stage characterized by feeling tired, fever, headaches, and joint, muscle, and abdominal pain. Vomiting, diarrhea and loss of appetite are also common. Less common symptoms include: sore throat, chest pain, hiccups, shortness of breath and trouble swallowing.
“Skin manifestations may include a maculopapular rash (in about 50% of cases). Early symptoms of EVD may be similar to those of malaria, dengue fever, or other tropical fevers, before the disease progresses to the bleeding (hemorrhagic) phase.”
Importantly, from the 10 day symptoms to mortality, you need to subtract the bleeding and incapacitation days, as unless people congregate around them, and they do not receive any medical attention, they are far less likely to transmit the disease.
Then consider active medical pursuit and effort to isolate anyone who is infected, and there is a fairly small window for others to be infected, and yet escape medical quarantine.
Not shaking in my boots at this time, but it has the potential to continue into new ground.
Where have you read that this Ebola outbreak has become airborne?
Thanks, well maybe just maybe instead of these countries fighting each other and living in squalor they could clean up their countries
Don’t know what GOPJ has run across, but I’ve seen several reports that it’s been transmitted by large droplets between lab animals. They were in close proximity but not in direct contact. As I understand it, this doesn’t mean the virus was floating around in the air for days, it means being in close proximity to the equivalent of sneezing.
I strongly suspect the infectious animals were in the severe symptoms stage, which in this country means they’d be in an intensive care ward of a hospital.
I am pretty sure every HCP out there is on the lookout for flu-type symptoms in anybody just returned from Africa, and that they’ll take immediate precautions.
"We moved our base camp last night and were now positioned literally
within feet of the river. Have been sitting here watching the border
patrol patrolling in their riverboats all night and all morning..."
Sneezing in an elevator would qualify...
Water droplets from sneezing... not quite the same as airbourn. I’ll see if I can find the link.
It lives on surfaces for days.
One sneeze in an elevator would contaminate the elevator buttons for days.
The animals used in the study to infect were pigs. In pigs ebola is a respiratory illness they usually recover from. The pigs were doing what people with respiratory illnesses usually do. Sneezing, coughing.
This specific form of Ebola virus, no recent reports that it has become airborne; first reports on this Ebola outbreak suggested possible airborne
No recent report seen , as this would cause a more severe panic in the already infected areas.
(titled) " Growing concerns over 'in the air' transmission of Ebola" (dated:11/15/12)
< / http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423 >
"Canadian scientists have shown that the deadliest form of the ebola virus could be transmitted by air between species.
In experiments, they demonstrated that the virus was transmitted from pigs to monkeys without any direct contact between them.
The researchers say they believe that limited airborne transmission might be contributing to the spread of the disease in some parts of Africa...
Now, researchers from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the country's Public Health Agency have shown that pigs infected with this form of Ebola
can pass the disease on to macaques without any direct contact between the species.
In their experiments, the pigs carrying the virus were housed in pens with the monkeys in close proximity but separated by a wire barrier.
After eight days, some of the macaques were showing clinical signs typical of ebola and were euthanised.
One possibility is that the monkeys became infected by inhaling large aerosol droplets produced from the respiratory tracts of the pigs.
One of the scientists involved is Dr Gary Kobinger from the National Microbiology Laboratory at the Public Health Agency of Canada.
He told BBC News this was the most likely route of the infection
"But they can be absorbed in the airway and this is how the infection starts, and this is what we think,
because we saw a lot of evidence in the lungs of the non-human primates that the virus got in that way."
It's insane. You'd think they'd be ramping containment efforts. Instead they make statements like "We can't prevent people without symptoms from traveling" and "Travel restrictions won't stop it from spreading.". Well no, not if you are only going to restrict those with obvious symptoms.
Thanks for the info.
A Freep article on 4/16/14 discusses coughing and the size of droplets remaining suspended in the air, depending on size :
< / http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3142204/posts >
and the artilcle further describes how long these droplets remain suspended in the air, and how droplets travel further than we think.
Perhaps the best way to describe my concerns is that while ebola is a spark, there is very little kindling here that could burst into fire. So many things go against there being a significant epidemic here that the odds are severely stacked against it.
Africa, on the other hand, has endless reasons for it to be a problem there. But even in Africa, its potential is limited. Were it a serious threat *there*, by now, millions of people would be sick and dying, not just a thousand and a third.
I like the thought problem that, if you had a billion people, and one million of them died every day, how long would it be before they all died? The easy answer is one thousand days. Or 2 years and about 9 months.
And there are about 7 billion people on Earth. To kill them all at 1 million a year, it would take 19 years and 3 months. Assuming nobody had any more children during that time.
I presume you meant "1 million a day".
“Never amounted to much of anything really . . .”
Some think otherwise:
If I read it correctly it's akin to cigarette or cigar smoke in relatively small space where the smoke swirls in the inital turbulence and resolves into a cloud. A cloud which is sustained for rather long periods of time as in a bar with several smokers.
Following that train of thought it may well be that in the open air there is quicker and higher dispersion of smaller contaminated droplets.
Search for the Ebola photos and you will see that many if not most of the field hospitals are very light gauge tents with plenty of air getting through.
If this is the case than it may well have been overlooked and underestimated as a mode of transmisability of this flavor of Ebola, and maybe previous ones, Reston standing out. An enclosed space may be the very worst place to be absent strict isolation protocols.
Now multiply the 36" by the factor 200 mentioned in your article we faced with an outer limit of an astonishing 600 feet, or two foot ball fields. How the hell do you test for that in labs?
My quick seat of the pants summary thought is that the lingering and dispersed cloud effect may explain the high casualty rate among the health workers.
Again I refer to the photos on the web. We see health workers being sprayed down with 10% bleach solutions (low velocity hand sprayers) before removing their PPE kit. How far removed are they from the infected patients? Do they remain within range of the "ebola mist cloud"? Seems like it from the photos doesn't it?
That's close enough for me to call it air borne.
I felt about the same about it. Airborne for minutes may not be the same as for hours in the case of influenza, but it still means that I can cough or sneeze it into the air, and someone who doesn’t touch me can still get it.
Yes. Though unlike Dr. Pianka, I do not think this would be a good thing.
This stuff can live for days, maybe 10 or more, on surfaces at room temperature.
It takes one (1) viron to infect.
Again I refer to the photos on the web. We see health workers being sprayed down with 10% bleach solutions (low velocity hand sprayers)
before removing their PPE kit.
How far removed are they from the infected patients?
Do they remain within range of the "ebola mist cloud"?
Seems like it from the photos doesn't it?
That's close enough for me to call it air borne.(Emphasis mine )
EXACTLY my thought as well !
These treatment areas are generally hastily set up temporary emergency bivwac centers of convass, tyvek, or other collapseable fabric.
Little thought is given to positive airflow pressure in the staff medical unit, and rarely is the bottom of the bivwac secured to the ground.
Given the hot climatic tempertures, then add the heat and humidity (human activity) of the PPE suit and eagerness to get out of the PPE ,
I am sure that they are in close proximity to treated patients , and therefore more probably exposed to suspended droplets in the air.
Let's at least hope that the CDC has bio-suits that use the airhose 'tail' for climate control and positive pressure air flow
Thanks Black Agnes, Sherman Logan, and Tilted Irish Kilt...
And wow, people screamed about the swine flu when that was going around? Somebody’s brain has been scrambled here...
DDT has absolutely zero to do with Ebola. Bodily fluids from monkeys and other animals can be left behind with ebola residue. Somebody touches that residue, often unknowingly, days later, they are infected. Mosquitoes aren’t the main issue, it’s most likely contact with monkeys, bats, and pigs’ bodily fluids, or with bodily fluids from infected people.
>>Okay, so why is the Gubmint downplaying this one?<<
I don’t know that they are. Not making a judgment as to whether this could be “The Pandemic” or not, I’m simply pointing to past scares that fizzled.
Could there be another worldwide pandemic? I suppose there could be, but till now, there hasn’t been.
Aids has killed 36 million since 1981, and 1.6 million in 2012.
Here is an article on how they dealt with in one African city in 1995.
Excerpt: “By the time Robert Colebunders arrived in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo (known as Zaire at the time), on June 15 of 1995, the Ebola virus had ravaged the city of 250,000 and the neighboring area for nearly 6 months. The hospitals in the riverport town were empty; patients and healthcare workers had fled to other parts of the country for fear of contracting the deadly disease, which would ultimately affect 317 people and kill 245.
Eventually, the Kikwit Ebola outbreak was traced back to January 1995, but it wasnt until the start of May of that year that local public health officials recognized the many sick patients in the area as victims of the infectious disease. On May 8th, the Zairian government officially declared the epidemic, asking the World Health Organization to mobilize international assistance. Soon after, infectious disease experts arrived from the WHO, the CDC, Doctors Without Borders, the South African Medical Institute, the Red Cross, and Belgiums Institute of Tropical Medicinewhich sent Colebunders.
Immediately, the team went to work to contain the disease.”
Awful. My heart hurts for every single person and their families. I pray God’s peace on them all.
It is a preventable disease though, would you not agree? Pandemic? No.
Still, my point is the gubbamints use these to scare the hell out of the population and keep’em off quilter.
Sure, look at post 48 and how easily they stopped a major break out (easy when compared to the end of the world claims).
Even in Africa, they are able to stop Ebola from being catastrophic.