NH is not a swing state Presidentially. It was a reliably GOP state from 1948 to 1988, with the lone exception of 1964. From 1992 to date it has been a reliably Democrat state, with the lone exception of 2000 (and that was accidental, since Nader took a key 4% from Gore, otherwise the state would’ve gone 51-48% for him instead of 48-47% for Dubya, as Kerry took it 50-49% in 2004). If it were to vote Republican in 2016, that would likely mean the GOP candidate wins nationally.
Dole would have narrowly won it with all of the Perot (in 96 I think he took more from Dole by a very wide margin) and Browne vote.
It’s been close and in play in 3 of the last 4 elections (and will be again in 2016 unless it’s a sizeable rat win along the lines of 2008), to me that’s what “swing state” means, It’s Obama margin was only 5.58%, only slightly larger than Colorado. If it ain’t a “swing state” then it’s surely the closest state you would exclude from that moniker.
I would rate the rat the slight favorite in 2016, so yes if we win it, we’re very likely winning the election.
Florida (which was stolen, Romney won), Ohio, Virginia, gets you 266, and then we need 1 more.