Posted on 08/30/2014 10:46:13 AM PDT by Kaslin
Mainstream media headlines in the last two days offer an amusing look at GDP forecasts.
GDP Stronger Than Expected
Yesterday, the Financial Times reported US Rebound Stronger than First Thought.
The US economy’s second quarter bounce was stronger than previously thought, with the official annualised growth estimate increased from 4 per cent to 4.2 per cent."Economic Pilot in Reverse"
The revision is more evidence of robust underlying growth in the world’s biggest economy as it swung back from a weather affected 2.1 per cent fall in the first quarter.
Consumer spending fell in July and income growth was weak, signs that cautious consumers could restrain economic growth in the second half of the year.Diving Into the Numbers
Personal spending, which measures what Americans pay for everything from sneakers to doctor visits, declined a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in July from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Friday. It was the first time spending fell in a month since January.
Personal income, reflecting income from wages, investment, and government aid, rose 0.2% in July—the smallest monthly increase of the year.
"Looks like the pilot threw the economy's engines into reverse at the start of the third quarter," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. Forecasts that the economy would grow at a strong 3% clip in the third quarter "look increasingly unrealistic if consumers don't return to the shops and malls."
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted personal spending would increase 0.1% and incomes would rise 0.3% in July.
Barclays lowered its forecast for third-quarter growth by a half-percentage point to a 2.2% pace. Goldman Sachs economists lowered their estimate to a 3.1% annual rate from a 3.3% pace.
Personal income increased $28.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $17.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $13.6 billion, or 0.1 percent. In June, personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $62.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, and PCE increased $50.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.Real PCE Highlights
its always “unexpected”
Like the person who smilingly lies to your face, fully aware you know he’s lying but also aware you are unable to actually catch him in his lie without his admission, the media has now dropped all attempts to maintain credibility and is just flat bold-faced lying while holding up their middle finger.
I wonder why they exclude food and energy?
Hmmm. Was this info “unexpectedly” released on a.....Friday afternoon at the start of a long weekend?
You’ll wonder where your money went when you get insurance from the President. (To the tune of the old Pepsodent jingle.)
Consumer spending unexpectedly dips, as was expected.
“Add the word ‘unexpectedly’, read it all together,
Add the word ‘unexpectedly’, then you feel better...”
As Harry Nilsson would say: “You’re such a silly media!”
Because then we would know, "officially" that there is inflation. Now, anyone who buys regular stuff, gas for car, food for table; knows that there is inflation. But, govt. doesn't want you to know about inflation, so they use numbers that don't actually relate to how people live their lives. Voila! No inflation. And, a compliant and corrupt media just reports it as "facts".
That is because entitlements and Social Security are mandated to increase if the C.O.L. increases.
If you don't include things like food and gas in the C.O.L. figures you can get away with not increasing Social Security and Entitlement payouts...
Thank you, a more in depth explanation than mine. Bottom line: the numbers are cooked to reflect whatever the govt. wants them to reflect.
“Butter Prices Reach All-Time High Amid Smaller Stockpiles”
I couldn’t imagine trying to sell anything but essentials in this economy; there simply aren’t enough government workers and 1%ers to buy everything, and the imported foreigners are thrifty (since they haven’t been raised in a consumer economy).
I often use the Meadowlands here in NJ as a great example of what is going on (at least in NJ); a brand-new mall completed a few years ago that hasn’t opened (for which they are now searching for alternative uses), a new football stadium that hardly brought in any money to local economies when it hosted the Super Bowl (and for which commercials are aired endlessly hawking season tickets), and a growing flea market filled with common supermarket items (including seafood - yuck) in which foreigners walk around buying items from destitute Americans (including the tools they used to work with) - all for cash.
When even Wal-Mart is in trouble, it is impossible to pretend everything is hunky-dory...
Those dollar store chains will become the new supermarkets (in areas where supermarkets will be driven out of business by Wal-Mart); they remind me of the nearby bodegas in North Newark. They really aren’t a good alternative, but they have low overhead and minimal staffing.
I’m sorry for your friend; the American Dream is dead for so many...
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