MU poll has Walker leading Burke [w/ likely voters], with turnout still key

Republican Gov. Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters in the latest survey by the Marquette University Law School.

That represents a change from other Wisconsin surveys in recent weeks — including a Marquette poll two weeks ago — that showed the race essentially tied.

The Marquette results released Wednesday underscore just how much turnout matters to the outcome of the contest for governor. Walker's gains were not among the broader population of registered voters, but among those who said they were certain to vote Tuesday. That's the group defined as "likely voters" in Marquette's polling.

First, Republicans are expressing more certainty than Democrats about voting. In the new poll, 93% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats say they are certain to vote, reflecting a potential turnout gap. As a result, likely voters in Marquette's new poll are a more Republican group than likely voters in its last survey.

Second, there is a sizable shift toward Walker among independents, who have bounced around in the polling. Independents were tied among likely voters two weeks ago but preferred Walker 52% to 37% in the latest poll.

Third, there is some decline in Burke's image. Among registered voters, 38% view Burke favorably while 45% view her unfavorably. Among likely voters, 39% view her favorably while 49% view her unfavorably. Until now, Burke's "positive" and "negative" ratings have roughly paralleled each other as she has become better known..........

Ex-Trek execs with conservative ties say Mary Burke was forced out

"......Mary Burke said she was not forced out of Trek.

"The truth is that after getting five additional offices up and running and managing seven operations, we decided to restructure and there was no need for my position and two of the people reporting to me could directly report to people in the United States," she said. "I was part of that decision to restructure and did that and then decided to leave."

She left the company in June 1993, taking a two-year break to snowboard, travel and work for a bicycle trade group. John Burke said he asked his sister to return to Trek in 1995..............................

".......Mary Burke has previously said that she left the company in 1993 on her own accord because of burnout and that she returned in 1995 to take the strategic planning and forecasting job.

[Tom] Albers said that he spoke with Mary Burke when he visited Europe and could see why the challenges of the job might have left her frustrated or burned out.

"From my standpoint, there was some truth to that," he said, citing the difficulties. "But I think there was more to it."

Trek's European operations were losing money, and there were many people problems there because of Burke's "my way or the highway" approach to managing personnel, Albers said. At the same time, Albers repeatedly emphasized that Burke faced an unusually difficult job in having subordinates in different countries with different backgrounds from her own.

Albers said that in his understanding Burke "was fired," but noted he did not know how the decision was discussed within the Burke family.

Albers said he had resolved to answer questions if asked about Mary Burke but not to volunteer them himself. He said he was concerned that he would face criticism and attempts to discredit him and repeatedly said that he respected Trek as a company and was concerned about appearing to detract from it.

Mary Burke has faced difficulties in her campaign, including criticism over her jobs plan containing passages that had been lifted nearly verbatim from earlier proposals published by three Democratic candidates who ran for governor elsewhere. Following that flap, Burke severed ties with a consultant to her campaign who worked on her jobs plan and those for the other candidates......."

Did Scott Walker oppose a proposal for refinancing student loans?

“....................But none of the above shows opposition by the governor to the refinance proposal.

We found another September 2014 news article, in the Racine Journal Times. That article reported that Walker said he would be willing to look at measures like the refinancing bill, but questioned whether the proposal is “more than just politics” because Democrats had not enacted it when they controlled the Legislature and the governor’s office prior to his election in 2010.

“If it was a good idea, I’m sure they would have passed it four years ago when they controlled the Assembly and the Senate and the governorship,” Walker was quoted as saying in response to questions from reporters. “They not only did not do it then, they presided over a state government that saw 5.5 percent average annual increases in tuition.”

Walker certainly isn’t declaring support for the refinancing authority, but he isn’t stating opposition, either.

Our rating

The Greater Wisconsin Committee says Walker “opposed a plan to help Wisconsin students refinance their student loans.”

The group acknowledged it has no evidence that Walker opposed a 2013 Democratic proposal to create a state student loan refinancing authority. Walker may not support the idea, but he hasn’t fought it, either — as the group claimed.

We rate the statement False.”

http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/

Scott Walker says September job growth is largest September increase in over a decade

“............Our rating

Walker claims that the September report which showed an increase of 8,400 jobs was the best in the past 10 years for that month. That stacks up. And a BLS official says the approach is legitimate, with the caveat the latest year is preliminary.

Thus, we rate the claim Mostly True.”

http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2014/oct/29/scott-walker/scott-walker-says-september-job-growth-largest-sep/

Scott Walker Takes 7-Point Lead in New Poll ".........The bad news for Burke comes amid reports that her family fired her from Trek Bicycle Corp. for incompetence, according to Watchdog.org. The report claims Trek’s former human-resources director and three former employees said the sales team threatened to quit if Burke was not removed from her position as director of European operations following large financial losses overseas. Burke responded to the report this afternoon, telling the Green Bay Press-Gazette that it was a “desperate” attempt by Republicans to undermine her credibility. President Obama campaigned with Burke yesterday, and may have done more to damage support for Burke as he could not keep the crowd from walking out on him. Walker, meanwhile, appears to have gained momentum at just the right time.

Turnout still key

This is akin to saying 'we can go sailing as long as we have water, a boat and some wind.'

Every election relies on turnout, idiots. That's the point.

But we know this phrase means two things to self-regarding lefty media types:

1) They hope the turnout is in their favor. Considering it's not a presidential election year they know better.

2) It's a not-so-cryptic preemptive excuse for a wipeout loss. Policy, ideas and results will be ignored in favor of 'turnout.'

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