Two ways.
First, polling in early voting states will ask whether someone voted, who they voted for and their party affiliation. This info can be used to come up with a good idea of how voting is going.
Second, early vote ballots can be cross referenced against the voter’s Party registration (where such exists) This is imperfect because it assumes that people don’t cross party lines in a general election, but applying algorithms based on past election results can produce a weighting that results in a decent guess as to how voting is going.
I figured a lot of the numbers we get are interpretive. But the talking heads and the party operatives seem so sure about how black women under 35 or single white mothers voted it makes me wonder.
Correct. They also check results to the list of those that voted in the primary. If they voted in the Republican primary it’s a safe bet their early/absentee ballot will match.
In the AMERICA I grew up in, there was a sanctity to voting in that YOUR vote was private. You didn't ask, you didn't tell. You didn't discuss it at work, and if you were smart, you didn't discuss it with your wife.
It seemed to be a much more SANE way.