Posted on 07/24/2015 11:46:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.
Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade. Since the first Gallup poll in 1936, there have been five independent or third-party campaigns in which a candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote in early polls. All but George Wallace in 1968 ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than they initially garnered, according to Gallup surveys.
In fact, both Ross Perot in 1992 and George Wallace in 1968 faded more down the stretch than these numbers suggest. Perot polled at an amazingly high 39 percent in summer 1992 (that was before he dropped out and then re-entered the race). Wallace reached the low 20s in late September 1968 and then dropped steadily as Election Day approached.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Not if he wins.
Hillary had a front pew seat at Trump’s latest wedding. I have to wonder if he is doing this a a favor to her.
...and who says he’s going to lose?....
The GOPe or the DNC or the ‘spineless sissies’ in the House or Senate???
Ben no debates yet and Bush may be gone by round two.
I am so sick of this. No one is factoring in how Trump will do in debates.
As a third party candidate? He won't.
Trump Would Lose Badly In A Third-Party Bid, But He Could Take The Republican Down, Too
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Duh. And Duh.
Has any one running in a third party bid NOT lost badly?
And has the Republican Party also not been taken down too?
It’s silly to talk about a third party bid when Donald is winning.
Exactly.
Trump is in bed with the Clintons.
Loves them. Gives them money. Both to their foundation as well as their political campaigns.
Trump cannot be trusted.
That’s one conspiracy theory. A retarded one, but there it is.
agree ...
If Ted is not the nominee, then this would be fantastic! Anything to destroy the GOPe.
And we’d be better off with a Hillary v Jeb race?
If he goes 3rd party I will vote for him, unless the republicrats run a real conservative.
Let the GOPe run third party RINO, for instance
Hiliary also attended Kasich or whatever his name is - she attended his wedding.
Silly? Why?
Trump himself has as much as threatened a third party bid.
Ohhh, “Trump himself...” Now I see where the silly comes in.
Let’s say it’s Clinton / Bush / Trump.
I’d vote Trump.
The other two are politically identical: Big Government spenders.
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