Posted on 08/20/2015 7:54:38 AM PDT by LS
Very strangely reported poll because the very first thing they highlight is BIDEN vs Bush, Rubio, or Trump. The second thing they highlight is a "third party run" by Trump in which Hillary wins.
When they finally get to the real world as it now stands, Trump beats Hillary by two in FL (43-41), Bush wins by 11, Rubio by 12. But neither Bush nor Rubio can beat Trump for the GOP nod there.
In OH, Kasich leads Trump 27-21, but in the general, Clinton ahead of Bush by 2, ahead of Trump by 6, Rubio beats Clinton by 2 (42-40)
In the PA GOP it's Trump at 24, Carson 13, 10 for Rubio and Bush doesn't even rank worth mentioning. In the general in PA it's 43/40 Bush over Clinton, 47/40 Rubio over Clinton, and Clinton over Trump 45/40.
Moreover, in almost all of these general matchups, Hillary can't get more than 45, and usually is at 40.
BTW, they show Biden beating Trump in all three states. Biden wins OH vs. any Republican, but loses PA and FL to Rubio and Bush. Sanders loses to Bush and Rubio across the board, loses to Trump in FL, beats him in OH and PA (supposedly).
Rubio wins PA by 7? No chance. This is a junk poll.
So really I discount the Bush v. Clinton and Rubio v. Clinton numbers because I don't think either of them will even get out of the primary.
Check the methodology first, Larry:
This RDD telephone survey was conducted from August 7 – 18, 2015 throughout the state of Florida.
Responses are reported for 1,093 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 477 Registered Republicans with a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.5 percentage points and 345 Registered Democrats with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.3 percentage points. Margins of sampling error for additional subgroups are listed in tables below.
Surveys are conducted in English or Spanish dependent on respondent preference with live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones.
The only reasonable polling sample is Likely Voters who have voted in two or more consecutive primaries.
There’s a good chance Trump would win 49 out of 50 states if he keeps this momentum going and I don’t see it slowing down. Even if Trump is not the nominee if the GOP can’t win next year they are done as a party. Ann Coulter will prove to be correct, we have turned into a Third World hell-hole and there’s no coming back.
Source: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl08202015_demos_Sdeg82k.pdf
I didn’t bother to check PA or OH once I saw how ridiculous the FL polling was.
Push poll at best, plus with Time cheerleading Trump you know the jig is up.
In terms of Trump in the primary, there is now 99% continuity with Trump leading every single state except OH. I do question even that. I think he probably would win here, but my track record on those guesses is not good.
I strongly doubt that either Bush or Rubio would win either OH or PA and certainly Trump would not do any worse in any of them.
The Twitterologists who are GOPe types (Freddoso, Jay Cost) are pointing to Trump's supposdly high "unfavorables" (though it's amazing in most other races how those have disappeared as the polling rolled on). I just don't buy that someone has those high "unfavorables" and dominates everywhere, especially when guys who can't even place in double digits among Republicans can "beat" Hillary.
Once again, you can complain about the polling methods of any poll. When you average them all out, Trump is crushing his opponents across the board. Carson pinging upward a little, but that will fade. Cruz steady at about 8% in almost any poll. The great news here is that Bush continues to crash, that Rubio is getting no traction, and Walker seems entirely out of the conversation.
All I know is, if my candidate (whoever that ends up being) doesn’t win, then I’m going to sit out the election. Or vote third party. Or vote for the Democrat. Or something. Whatever it takes to show you people how badly you messed up in not nominating my candidate.
PA is interesting right now.
Pat Toomey (R) leads for re-election.
Unpopular Democrat governor
Democrat Attorney General in legal hot water
I can't say these trends hold up but things look interesting.
It will be the biggest selling issue they’ve had in a decade.
The media for DECADES has portrayed Republicans as buffoons, ignoramuses, angry and intolerant.
At the same time they put Democrats forward as tolerant and smart, loving and smart....this mag cover is a prime example.
The Gingrich who Stole Christmas cover was another.
Media bias stinks.
THAT makes me happy.
I told hubby last night that if it’s Bush vs Clinton, I might have to vote for Hillary.
I doubt if I could do it, but voting for RINO pro-amnesty Yeb would be equally repugnant.
It’s not about ‘my’ candidate, it’s about being coerced into voting for a liberal with an R.
Never again.
Everyone favors the unknown to the known. For the Dems, Hillary was great as a theory and now the bloom comes off the rose. Biden is great for them in theory too but wait til he opens his mouth and speaks. The man is a gaffe timebomb
PA had a Republican governor and they threw him out for the D. Serves them right.
Trump has not even started yet. He will blitz the media so bad Biden won’t even be able to buy time.
If Biden beats anyone in OH that just leads me to believe that OH is full of dumb-asses. Sorry to Ohio FReepers.
I agree. I could hold my nose and vote for a couple. I would gladly vote for Ted or Carson, but Trump is my fave due to what I think he can actually accomplish.
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