The "rallies" the last few days will, unfortunately, cause many of those who have got out to get back in, or convince those who were getting out to rather stay in the markets until it is too late. That may have been the intension of those who are manipulating the markets and currencies.
~snip~
“...China can lose all of its gains for 2015 in the span of a few weeks despite institutionalized stimulus measures lasting years,”
I thought I heard China didn’t, or has not, choose(n) to implement a “stimulus measure”???
From everything gathered, no one I know, who even sparingly follows any of this global economic interplay gives a rats ass...
Until it bites you of course, but by then, some of us will already be out of the kill zone, making tortillas, popping popcorn and watching what is left of this phase in our global circus...
Markets are supposed to go up and down. We all can find someone holding a “The end is near” sign if we look hard enough.
It has turned into a large confidence game now. The game does have the superficially helpful effect that everybody keeps believing in all this fiat money and any inflation is far smaller than the dilution of the overall money supply. But the game has the bad effect that people are standing agape at the government and saying “Yes, Master” to just about anything that comes down the road. You’d think that surely something like Obamacare or “gay marriage” would be enough to get people walking out on the confidence game, but people are scared to do it.
Did you write this sitting on a window ledge twelve stories up? Our current economy in spread and depth bears no resemblance to 1929
If the US adopts a protective policy of less taxation less regulation and some intelligent tariffs our economy will stabilize and gradually grow. And we will repatriate industries from other countries
He doesn't mention the fact that there is more than $12 TRILLION in private UA capital sitting on the sidelines waiting to invest. It can't go anywhere but the stock market ...unless things turn in which it goes into direct investment.
Many experts---and they on all sides of this---say we should have had a 20,000 Dow years ago.
All ANY market is is confidence, faith. Capitalism demands a "faith sacrifice" before you get rewarded. Yes, you apply reason, but Frederick Tudor had NO evidence Americans would take to iced drinks. Sam Colt THOUGHT a revolver would be useful but had no proof til, years later (after a bankruptcy), Texas Rangers used his pistols successfully vs. Indians. On and on.
What is lacking today everywhere confidence--confidence in American power, will, direction. You don't need to turn the Titanic back to England , just steer clear of the iceberg. It would not take, for example, the election of a Trump to start a massive shift---only the strong likelihood of his election. And not because of any particular POLICY but because of confidence.
The referring site should change its name to “The Sky Is Falling. ...Again”
Here are some more statements:
Sept. 1929
“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.” Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
Oct. 14, 1929
“Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board”. New York Times
Dec 5, 1929
“The Governments business is in sound condition.” Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
Exactly what we are hearing today....
Here are some more statements:
Sept. 1929
“There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.” Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
Oct. 14, 1929
“Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board”. New York Times
Dec 5, 1929
“The Governments business is in sound condition.” Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury
Exactly what we are hearing today....
The truth is, as America and the West try to raise the standard of living in 3rd world countries, the standard of living in the west will decline. There is more competition. It was great when the Soviet Union and Communist China were closed and did not compete. Technology has also had a hand in it.
If the West wants to to maintain the high living standards, they have to stop helping the 3rd world...and stop the 3rd world from migrating to the West.
Looking at the chart over the last weeks I get the impression that the Fed is blowing in cash at the appropriate points to the banks to buy stock and prop up the market. That can seem to work for a while but will decline in effectiveness per unit of cash with each priming of the failing pump as the gaskets disintegrate.
How many years have we been hearing this? Makes me think “Glenn Beck”
How many times and for how many years did Beck keep coming out telling us he had a big big big story that was going to shake the foundation of everything we knew? I can tell you how long, long enough to get filthy rich and be able to actually mock those who made him that way.
This is not 1929 and the percentage of the change in the markets is what needs to be followed. So many factors effect the economy to state you have one symptom or two and from this you know exactly what will happen proves how little you understand the economy.
Call goldline and buy some gold that should ensure you can watch your neighbors starve to death while you sit and watch Bruce Jenner transform on TV eating your non-gmo food that is going to pop up out of the ground if you use your credit card.
Never mind reality.
Man is no more or less depraved today than he has been for his entire existence. Many conservatives claim to be Christians yet apparently can’t afford a Bible to read.
A market correction has been expected for a year or more. It will be volatile for a while, but it will eventually settle down.
Fear-monger much?
Whenever someone claims “its undeniable” - whether its about global warming or the stock market - your BS detector should be off the scale.
True - with all the wild yo-yoing, it might as well be renamed the Duncan market.
We now have more QEs followed by Roman numerals than the Brits ever laid ownership to and it's really odd how one factor can cause a 300-500 point drop and the next day they will use the same factor to "explain" a 600 point gain.
Here are a couple of wry observations. I have been reading or listening to this kind of doomsayer for nearly 50 years. The only economic analysis in that time that made sense to me was the danger ill-considered mortgage loans packaged as AAA securities represented. I read those warnings for the better part of a decade before they were borne out in the real world. The truth is no one can make precise predictions. There are general principles which apply over a very long term, assuming (ah, there’s that economist’s favorite word!) the variables stay in predictable ranges. The end will come when it is damned well ready to do so. Here is the hardest lesson: There is no safety. Anywhere.
(”Penetrating so many secrets, we cease to believe in the unknowable. But there it sits nevertheless, calmly licking its chops.” H.L. Mencken)
After spending about 1,700 words in an essay about monitary policy since the revolution, I finish with these two paragraphs.
“This may seem fairly insane, until you realize that every member of the G-20 behaves in much the same way, and do understand their precarious situation. With the recent debt ceiling deal the accumulated obligations of this country exceed our GDP, allowing us to share the dilemma Greece presently faces. By 2037 the CBO reports national debt will become 200% of GDP. Since all currencies have about this same connection to reality, finding one or several of sufficient magnitude and viability to replace the dollar as a worldwide medium of exchange and store of value becomes perplexing.
An individual country might think they have a solution, but they know they must also survive during the resulting chaos as all countries seek similar solutions. They see the daunting specter of disaffected holders sending 10’s of billions of dollar denominated bonds to the marketplace when there are no buyers unless prices are severely discounted. They are also frightened by the image of a devastated U.S. economy, because feeding the insatiable desires of U.S. consumers has been a mainstay of their prosperity. I imagine something like the final scene in “The Good The Bad and The Ugly”. The members of the G-20 are standing in a circle with open graves behind them. They are all contemplating how they are going to successfully outdraw the other nineteen members and survive the resulting mayhem, which Lee Van Cleef’s character did not. The only thing needed now is a typical expression of human frailty to commence the cascade to catastrophe.”