The Real Clear Politics poll average peak for Trump was about 31% a few weeks back. Trump is currently at 24% in that same poll average.
Am I lying if I report that Trump is slipping in the polls?
Real Clear Politics do not show all polls.
makes no sense that he would be averaging 24 percent if 24 percent was the lowest result he has had in any recent poll.
I do see a Bloomberg poll that has him at 21— I do think he is slipping a bit.
Well 24 is indeed a lower number than 31. :-) Trump brings it on himself because he has made a big deal of how great his poll numbers are while ridiculing other candidates with lower numbers. So he is an easy target on this one. He should stop wasting time on these little cat fights and stick to the issues. 24% is still a great polling number.
An outlier poll was just included in the average at Real Clear Politics that has distorted the pull back for Trump. Every poll but Bloomberg had Trump still in the mid to high 20’s. The Bloomberg one has him at 21% and that exagerated the small drop Trump had after the 2nd debate.
The last poll taken before the 2nd debate was CBS/NYT
it had Trump at 27%
in the 4 polls taken since then Trump has had:
24%, 25%, 21%, and 26%.
The 21% is the outlier Bloomberg poll. The others are all withing the margin of error.
So yes, Trumps numbers did dip a little from the high 20’s to the mid 20’s, but he is still about 3 times higher than the media dubbed presumtive nominee “Bush”
Meanwhile Carley who did get a small bounce from the debate is already seeing it fade and is back into single digits.
However, state-wise, he's pretty much where he's always been. A lot of shuffling at #2. I don't see him "slipping" at all.
RCP does NOT use all polls. They use their own criteria on which polls to use for averaging.