[wiping face] What I'm saying is that politics aside imho we're seeing the world's lemmings race to the sea and our leaders are clueless. Again.
Meanwhile the article may be a long read w/ too many numbers but I found it compelling -after weeding thru the sick lib bias.. At least look at the pictures graphs.
Inflation isn’t missing, it’s just camouflaged.
missing inflation? Not according to my grocery bill under Odumbass
Everything is smaller, and more expensive.
My average bill used to be $150. Now I am lucky to spend less than $300
A happy Tuesday morning everyone! Stocks bounced back up yesterday, we can say it was just a typical 'dead-cat-bounce' like we see all the time in a crash but the fact remains trading volume's up.
Futures are together today on the idea that stock indexes are pointing up, and while metals may seem off they're at least not plunging. Any more. For now.
Huge data flood today and (imho) they'll all be watching this stuff:
8:30 AM Core CPI
8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing
8:30 AM Core CPI
8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing
10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index
4:00 PM Net Long-Term TIC Flows
Lots of news (End of Year Tax Selling Puts a Damper on the Stock Market; Does It Create a Buying Opportunity?) too but I'll be hanging out on the econ threads:
Thanks for posting this. Personally I think there is so much political/government and insider manipulation of the markets such that most of us are only along for the ride. Compounding this, economics is not a hard science, and often the people doing the ‘driving’ (e.g. the Fed) don’t know what the right thing to do is, and can’t accurately predict the consequences of their actions (particularly if they are blinded by their ideological leanings).
Saw through this BS after the, jobs are on track lie.
U6? I’d say 20%
Food is still high though gas is cheap...and gas being cheap adds more unemployment from the oil cracking industry.
USD velocity is putting on the breaks...Baltic dry index sucks.
The lies continue...some are so fooled they buy 300 presents for their 3 kids and pile them up past the Xmas treetops.
Beam me up Scotty!
The Federal Reserve and economists are as honorable as first research study scientists and statisticians. Won’t it be nice when the One who knows the hearts and minds of man rules? Joy to the world, everyone!
Inflation has nothing to do with growth except growth in the money supply which is, of course, shrinkage in the wallet. If the Government wants growth then the government should abolish corporate taxes and 90% of business regulation. Then there will be GROWTH. The downside would be that the increase in available jobs would be so phenomenal that no one would notice the illegals anymore. If the government also abolished all government aid at all levels to illegals then the illegals would cease to be a problem. The lazy ones would go home and the industrious ones would learn English.
——Debts are harder to pay off without inflation shrinking their burden.———
Ha,ha, ha.......Finally an admission
The US Federal debt of $18 trillion is hard to pay off with no inflation
The inflation target must be higher on the order of say 6% to really make the debt easier to pay
The inflation isn’t there because the banks have not put money into the economy. It is all sitting in reserves. If a bank can hit their “net interest margin” targets with zero risk, that is the best thing.
Once rates start to go up in the market, that money is going to come rushing out. Then you will see inflation. And it won’t be camouflaged.
Apparently nobody at the feds eats food.
Economics is not an exact science. In real science, F always equals ma, E always equals IR, and E always equals mc^2, at least for things you can measure on earth. In economics, results are governed by decisions made by financially struggling families over whether to buy extra baby formula, or steak. Rib-eye rarely wins. These real economic decisions are governed by the confidence that one has about what is expected to happen next week, next month, and next year. Reality wins over propaganda most of the time. Reality tells us that it’s not some bogus employment rate number that counts, It’s whether, or not, MY job will be there. When that’s not secure, the baby formula wins.
There is no such thing as “missing inflation” or “inflation is not on track.” If their predictions are wrong, then they should say so.
Also, this shows that their goal is to raise prices generally, thus hurting people who were foolish enough to work honestly and save money so they would not become a burden in their old age.
“Jobs are on track, but inflation isn’t...”
Workforce participation rate numbers provided by BLS along with a trip to the supermarket would suggest otherwise. Blind leading the blind with these BS assumptions will lead to epic failure.
Zero’s administration has used the “no inflation” B.S. at least 3 times to deny s.s. recipients a cost of living increase.
I have felt that demographics of the boomer retirements, low birth numbers of millennials and bad conditions for gen X in their prime years have put us on the track for deflation. The succeeding generations don’t want or can’t afford the homes of the boomers, boomers will spend less and have less to spend in retirement etc.
It all adds up to a falling market. Deflation.
Consider this please:
A fellow came by the office today. I’ll tell you what he is selling but also tell you some things he believes are headed our way. One of you may know him. In ‘13 he did a pretty fair job of predicting the end of the oil boom based on charting the trends. He is a technical / chart trader in just about anything that is traded. Not a big fan on analysis of fundamentals since the events usually have passed by the time the analysis has been done. He has been trading for about 40 years.
Here are some facts and what he thinks:
Fact, 75 million baby boomers are leaving the consumption market and their spending patterns are not replacing those of Gen X and the Millennials
Fact, Japan is deep in a demographic hole with an aged population and Europe is following in close step to Japan and the U.S.
Fact, not enough workers to support debt promises to retirees
Fact, too many lucrative pensions have been given to public employees who retire far too early for us to afford to pay them. Again, not enough workers to support these pensions.
Fact, we are not creating enough well paying jobs because we are not making enough value added products.
Observation, There are long and short term patterns in everything. E.g. a trend of boom and bust is suggested starting with 1902 when new technologies came on the scene creating a major shift in the economy. They were the car, the airplane, communications etc. The boom lasted until 1928. The bust lasted until 1942 or so with the onset of the World War. The good times lasted until about 1968 when Vietnam became so costly and the markets stalled. That bust lasted until some sea change came along, the computer technology boom in about 1982. The dot com bust came and went, then 9/11 then the Great Recession in 2008. The pattern conveniently suggests 26 years of growth and 14 years of bust.
Observation, per the Fourth Turning, we are in the fourth period of an 80 year cycle. The fourth period, for the last 500 years studied, commences with an economic down turn followed by a global war. The last 20 year period of the 80 year cycle is called the Crisis.
Conditions suggest we are firmly in the grip of the Crisis phase of the 80 year cycle.
He suggests that the market has been propped up by 4 trillion of QE and that it is a house of cards owing to the facts and observations noted and that the trend is for deflation as people consume less. The FED seems hell bent for leather to declare victory and raise interest rates. I’d say this will not go well and QE will resume very quickly in the election year but probably not quickly enough. The economy does not turn that fast but the market does turn very fast to the downside and it probably will.
He suggests that the debt is, as most of us probably concur, unsustainable. A default must take place because it can’t be paid back.
Politicians will do all they can to sustain their power including even more aggressive confiscation to prop up their power as the crisis deepens and grows old.
He forecasts gold to less than 400 as it is not the haven some have suggested since it is a hedge against inflation, not deflation
He forecasts the Euro to go up to about $1.15 to the euro and then collapse to about $0.88 as it becomes apparent that the game of QE there is not working.
He expects the EU to eventually fail within only a “few” years.
He forecasts oil must fall to the previous troughs low before it can begin recovery. The charts suggest low 30s notwithstanding some geopolitical outbreak.
He forecasts an even worse fall in housing than we have seen as there are too few buyers for downsizing and dying boomers homes.
He makes two suggestions: Cash and learning how to make money in a declining market by shorting the market.
If you have a paid for house keep it but if it is not paid for realize it may go upside down again.
Now for the punch line of what he does. A disclaimer. He is an unregistered trader, meaning he is a boutique trader only able to manage the money of a limited number of persons. He trades and markets himself as an investment coach teaching people how to read charts and thereby achieve his fantastic, so he shows, results.
What he does, does not make the facts untrue though he is very motivated for you to buy his service, the observations invalid or the forecasts necessarily tainted. Obviously though one wonders why, if he is such a successful trader would he bother with selling his services as an investment coach at $2,700 for a three month engagement? Certainly not altruism.
Notwithstanding this disclaimer I don’t count this evaluation as wrong nor what appears to me as the risky proposition to deal with it.
“Low inflation-and low prices-sound beneficial but can stall growth in wages and profits. Debts are harder to pay off without inflation shrinking their burden.”
Talk about mumbo-jumbo. Inflation shrinks the value of all assets, across the board, which is much worse economically than having debts NOT shrink. Anyone who racked up a debt should have secured the means to pay it off before incurring it, they should not be counting on inflation to shrink it.
Of course, the real debt they are worried about is the GOVERNMENT debt, not our loans and mortgages. They know the only chance they have of paying that off is by devaluing our currency to some extent.