So, as of now, even with a magnificent Cruz “victory” in IA, Trump would win about 30% of IA’s delegates and a larger share of NH’s and a larger share of SC’s and a 30% share of NVs.
Yeah, keep telling yourself that every single poll that comes out today is going to be exactly same same a month from now after 3 more debates and the first votes are actually cast.
You’re assuming that earlier victories won’t affect the race in later states. If the past is anything to go by they probably will, but then we don’t know by how much. Too many factors at this time to say that this or that WILL happen based on the present.