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I think it’s clear that Cruz has a small but persistent lead over Trump in Iowa, but it seems Ted has stalled there and Trump is inching back up. It will be as it always was predicted...turnout. If Trump can bring even a portion of his rally attendance to the caucus, we may be in for a big surprise on election night. Trump needs to turn back to immigration and jobs this week. News reports out how Obama Syrian refugees were arrested for terrorism and the stock market and Chinese market messes are tailor made for him. Nobody on the playing field except for Trump can speak with authority on thise issues now.

The possibility of a much larger turnout is what everybody is missing. Normally the turnout among Republicans at this caucus is very low. This has been a blue state 6 of the last 7 elections. Eighty percent of Republicans in Iowa stayed home in 2012. Only the evangelicals seem to get excited about this and even so, they were only able to deliver the narrowest of victories to Santorum in 2012. Only 38 votes separated Santorum from 2nd place Romney and statewide, Santorum had less than 30,000 votes.

Trump has had tens of thousands of people at his Iowa rallies and Cruz has also drawn some crowds. Compare that to four years ago when the candidates basically hung out at hardware stores and coffee shops in their flannel shirts.

So I think we are going to see a huge turnout this time around. Both Trump and Cruz will do very well. I do think Trump wins by a substantial margin. The really positive thing to come out of this is that GOPe candidates are going to get destroyed. Also, I'd like to see Bernie Sanders whip Bill Clinton's WINO.

Remember what Trump repeatedly says about not having his generals project their actions

This is the most detailed on His ground game in Iowa. Only things found recently and hypotheses and conjecture

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/trumps-ground-game-iowa-soaring-aides-say

I don’t know what to make of Iowa. Cruz may win there. If he does, that’s okay. He put in the effort.

Trump is putting in effort as well. He just doesn’t get his folks to post on the forum every yard sign erected in his name. (Okay, a little over the top, but not by much) The tactics do hold to this model...

If Trump wins, it’s going to be a very hard defeat for folks who were convinced without a doubt their guy had it all sewed up. That’s the risk you take when you talk yourself up to the point that you raise everyone’s expectations to unrealistic heights.

It could cause a lot of folks to simply melt away. It’s going to be crushing, if he doesn’t win, and I would say “win big”.

We’ll see how it goes.