Posted on 01/10/2016 6:18:17 AM PST by jimbo123
Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State.
What's more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New Hampshire, while Trump has built a 16-point lead in the same state.
Those are the results of two brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls - the first NBC/WSJ/Marist early-state surveys of 2016, which for the first time measure likely voters.
In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump by four points among likely caucus-goers, 28 percent to 24 percent - within the poll's margin of error of plus-minus 4.6 percentage points.
They're followed by Marco Rubio at 13 percent and Ben Carson at 11 percent. No other Republican candidate gets more than 5 percent of the vote.
Yet among the larger universe of potential Iowa caucus-goers, Trump actually leads Cruz by two points, 26 percent to 24 percent, suggesting that a larger turnout could benefit Trump in the state.
-snip-
In New Hampshire, which holds its presidential primaries on Feb. 9, Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters. He's followed by Marco Rubio at 14 percent, Chris Christie at 12 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent, and John Kasich and Jeb Bush tied at 9 percent each.
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
Yes, Trump has been holding brief rallies, while the Cruz style is much more traditional face to face with voters. That’s one of Trump’s Iowa handicaps. But enthusiasm can make up for a lot of missteps.
Whereas for the caucus, you are attending the meeting at your local precinct and will be indoors the entire time. Seems to me that if people are willing to endure what is involved to go to a rally, they should have no issue going to the caucus.
Cruz has hit his ceiling.
If Trump comes in second in Iowa he still runs the rest of the table. Nobody else is even close.
Cruz has hit his ceiling
which is what? about 4’8”?
I’m in MN, but I do know some people in IA, and they’ll supporting Trump, and say that he has more support than people think.
No need to worry about that. Trump has stepped in it with his birther attack on Cruz.
Cruz will clinch it in the next debate.
Trump needs to worry about NH.
“If Trump wins Iowa...”
If Trump loses Iowa by 10+ points?
If finishes 3rd in Iowa?
The 2nd are more likely.
Yep Cruz has stalled.
I don’t know what to make of Iowa. Cruz may win there. If he does, that’s okay. He put in the effort.
Trump is putting in effort as well. He just doesn’t get his folks to post on the forum every yard sign erected in his name. (Okay, a little over the top, but not by much) The tactics do hold to this model...
If Trump wins, it’s going to be a very hard defeat for folks who were convinced without a doubt their guy had it all sewed up. That’s the risk you take when you talk yourself up to the point that you raise everyone’s expectations to unrealistic heights.
It could cause a lot of folks to simply melt away. It’s going to be crushing, if he doesn’t win, and I would say “win big”.
We’ll see how it goes.
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