Posted on 01/10/2016 6:18:17 AM PST by jimbo123
Three weeks until the first presidential nominating contest, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running neck and neck in Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are also locked in a tight race in the Hawkeye State.
What's more, Clinton and Sanders are within the margin of error in New Hampshire, while Trump has built a 16-point lead in the same state.
Those are the results of two brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls - the first NBC/WSJ/Marist early-state surveys of 2016, which for the first time measure likely voters.
In Iowa, which holds its caucuses on Feb. 1, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump by four points among likely caucus-goers, 28 percent to 24 percent - within the poll's margin of error of plus-minus 4.6 percentage points.
They're followed by Marco Rubio at 13 percent and Ben Carson at 11 percent. No other Republican candidate gets more than 5 percent of the vote.
Yet among the larger universe of potential Iowa caucus-goers, Trump actually leads Cruz by two points, 26 percent to 24 percent, suggesting that a larger turnout could benefit Trump in the state.
-snip-
In New Hampshire, which holds its presidential primaries on Feb. 9, Trump gets support from 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters. He's followed by Marco Rubio at 14 percent, Chris Christie at 12 percent, Ted Cruz at 10 percent, and John Kasich and Jeb Bush tied at 9 percent each.
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
So much for Hillary’s invincibility. She’s struggling in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowa is neck an neck, but Trump is ahead by a mile in New Hampshire.
It’s more fun to let John Ellis Bush go after Rubio. He’ll do it if his advisers tell him to.
Bill Clinton’s WINO is going to get her oversized butt kicked in New Hampshire for sure. Now it looks like she is going to get licked in Iowa too. And I don’t mean by Huma.
Jeb has been savaging Rubio. He cannot afford to finish dead last in New Hampshire.
Its Do Or Die Time.
If Trump wins Iowa...
You can imagine the writers pain as he typed out these words. OMG-but-but-but-how can this be?
I think it’s clear that Cruz has a small but persistent lead over Trump in Iowa, but it seems Ted has stalled there and Trump is inching back up. It will be as it always was predicted...turnout. If Trump can bring even a portion of his rally attendance to the caucus, we may be in for a big surprise on election night. Trump needs to turn back to immigration and jobs this week. News reports out how Obama Syrian refugees were arrested for terrorism and the stock market and Chinese market messes are tailor made for him. Nobody on the playing field except for Trump can speak with authority on thise issues now.
“......the larger universe of potential Iowa caucus-goers.........”
Who picks them?
My previous question.......”Who Picks Them?”......
“......state laws determine how electors are chosen, they are generally selected by the political party committees within the states.”.........
So, What is the criteria in Iowa?
Trump has had tens of thousands of people at his Iowa rallies and Cruz has also drawn some crowds. Compare that to four years ago when the candidates basically hung out at hardware stores and coffee shops in their flannel shirts.
So I think we are going to see a huge turnout this time around. Both Trump and Cruz will do very well. I do think Trump wins by a substantial margin. The really positive thing to come out of this is that GOPe candidates are going to get destroyed. Also, I'd like to see Bernie Sanders whip Bill Clinton's WINO.
Remember what Trump repeatedly says about not having his generals project their actions
This is the most detailed on His ground game in Iowa. Only things found recently and hypotheses and conjecture
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/trumps-ground-game-iowa-soaring-aides-say
It may be wishful thinking, but I predict Trump will win Iowa with 38 percent of the vote.
Are you in Iowa? The whole thing seems so strange to us not there. I’m wondering if Trump will pull it off with some unbelievable ground game on caucus day.
I think your analysis is quite correct and very logical. The question arises whether the Trump campaign can bring out all the supporters on a very cold evening of Feb 1, spend a few hours, register? and vote for Trump. Tough task ahead, maybe give them some incentives, lots of pizzas and free catering? If the turnout is low, Alas!!; something is not right and DT may lose?
There’s no ‘unbelievable ground game’ in Iowa. Cruz and Trump both have the best grass roots turnout operations in the business.
A big Trump win would indicate Trump’s appeal isn’t just celebrity. A Cruz win would be a more conventional turnout.
Modest numbers for Trump or Cruz, even if they ‘win’, could open the door for Rubio or Christie should one or both outperform expectations.
Bad weather discourages newbies, which could sink Trump.
That’s why there’s a real process and projections and opinion polls don’t really matter.
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html#polls
If that happens, America will be Great Again and be free from planted Muslim journalists in rallies, proxy and fraud evangelicals, candidates who are puppets in the hands of their donors and lack strength, leadership, the courage to speak the truth and vision. Only the morally strong and God-blessed people will have the courage of conviction to openly say and do what they believe is the truth and God’s commands.
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