Posted on 02/01/2016 11:10:42 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
As the first 2016 nominating votes near, Donald Trump's strength as GOP frontrunner seems only to grow - nationally and in Iowa, where he's led in five of the last six state polls. But before the Trump freight train gets too far down the tracks, here's a word to the wise: Don't count out Ted Cruz, especially in the Hawkeye State.
The Texas senator has one big advantage over Trump, he occupies the social conservative lane in the GOP primary field, and that lane tends to over perform in Iowa.
(VIDEO-AT-LINK
Consider the 2008 and 2012 Iowa Republican caucuses. In both years, the social conservative candidate won the state - former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum - and both men got a big bump in the final tally compared to polls.
Going into the 2008 caucuses, Huckabee led Mitt Romney by about 3 points - 29.7 percent to 26.7 percent - but in the final results Huckabee won by more than 9 points, 34.4 percent to 25.2 percent....
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
I am not. I will not count out Trump or Rubio for that matter. GO TRUMP GO
Door is open for a horrific Rubio surprise.
It’s Rubio I wouldn’t count out if enough Cruzers are finally disgusted but don’t want to make it easy for Trump
Not until the votes are actually counted! Going to be an interesting night.
Trump Victory Rally
Monday, February 01, 2016
West Des Moines, IA
The Sheraton West Des Moines
9:00 PM CST
The projected high turnout means a likely Trump win.
I wouldn’t be heartbroken if Cruz pulls out a win though... at least he would have Iowa to remember...politics is a tough blood-sport. He’s young yet and has more chances down the line.
Door is open for a horrific Rubio surprise.
Yes but how sweet would it be to see Cruz have to talk about it. I would pay good money to see that stupid smirk on Cruz’s face after getting his ass kicked down to third or fourth. I am still hoping Carson beats him too.
Trump 2016!
Iowa by itself doesn’t matter. Iowa + NH matters.
One thing I’ve learned is that people that look to past performances for “patterns”, and silly gimmicks like the “Bradley effect” or Rain = fewer voters, and even nonsense like if Team A wins some game on so and such date, then Candidate B wins the election, almost always end up looking desperate and will be disappointed.
Yup
Right now I’m waiting for the Iowa people to rule out who they want.
And, the architect of that Santorum miracle now works for...
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Anyone?
Anyone?
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D J T
He’s young yet and has more chances down the line.
-Yeah but America doesn’t. Hitlary, thank God is going to jail. Donald is a personality like odumbo,But if we get one more lefty thenthis country is done.
I would not count on those voters going to Cruz.
I would not be surprised if Rubio wins, or finishes a strong 2nd, tonight.
According to polling a plurality of Iowa voters are either undecided or soft in their support for any candidate.
Religious voters play a significant role in Iowa politics.They faithfully show up on Caucus night.
Religious voters have demonstrated in the past a distaste for candidate who engage in the bare knuckle politics Cruz/Trump have recently engaged in.
Historically polling in Iowa has been rather inaccurate. Iowa almost always produces a surprise result.
Recent polling in Iowa has been showing strong movement to Rubio. The trends in the latest polls shows movement away from Cruz to Rubio.
Rubio has gone full out of for the religious votes. His ads spend a lot of time with him talking about his religious faith. His stump speech spend a lot of time on his faith. Rubio is a good con-man. Like most people withou any core principals, his is good at selling what ever he is talking about at any one time.
Team Cruz switched from targeting Trump to going after Rubio on Friday.
RCP also predicted that Romney didn’t have much to worry about going into the election against Obama. I really don’t put much weight in them, anecdotal evidence and all, but I remember them being more wrong than right over the past 10 years.
As much as I don’t like their liberal-ish leanings on their editorials, FiveThirtyEight.com seems to have found the magic formula when it comes to crunching the numbers.
Yep
We got the GOPe zombie team down to the 3% level, they are crawling back out again. I don't consider that sweet, I consider that a failure by the leading candidates who spent too much time slugging it out against each other vs pushing their agenda. We HAVE to get rid of that threat so we can start concentrating on ensuring that there's no funny business at the convention.
Ted knows if he loses this, he is on his way out. This is a must win for Cruz. He has put all his chips on Iowa, Tonight, we will find out the trajectory of his campaign,
I agree Rubio will be near the top. Cruz will win but barely. Trump and Rubio darn near a tie for second. My point is that all three will be very close.
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