Posted on 02/13/2016 5:40:05 AM PST by Strategy
The Turks are not Arabs and the Turkish military is no joke. The most serious military in the region aside from Israel. A conventional arms fight between Russia and Turkey on or next to the latter’s home turf would favor Turkey. The Russians have had issues fighting Chechen bandits and Afghan tribesmen and their best success against disorganized Ukrainian forces. The Turks are for real. Which is why this situation is dangerous. It’s hard to predict what Putin will do if his strong man aura is busted.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/02/06/iran-150000-saudi-mercenaries-ready-to-enter-syria/
Oh that’s right, Iran, the truth tellers of the ME. Saudi would be committing half its entire military on that number alone, not counting support. Sounds more like target practice for SU-24s ...
So we have in this corner, The Regime (Baathist) being supported the Al-Quds and the Basij Militia (Shi'ite Islamist) from Iran. Oh yeah, lets not forget Hezbollah (Shi'ite) with their strength of 25,000 fine folks.
And Ladies and Gentlemen, in corner number 2, we have the The Rebels (Sunni) supported by Saudia Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Helping the rebels is Al-Nusra (otherwise known as al-Qaeda) (Sunni). Also in corner number two we have a coalition of 40,000 potential suicde bombers.
Also in corner 2 we have a group of 40,000 to 70,000 fine young folks associated with another group called Islamic Front (not to be confused with Islamic State) These folks (Sunni) want to not only over throw The Regime, they want to create an Islamic State.
Oh yeah, also in corner 2 we have the Free Syrian Army. They are your Secularist who probably just want to live a life we here in the western world might consider normal.
In corner number 3 we have that famous Jayvee team now known as Islamic State. (Sunni of the Wahhabi tribe) Well now we have corner 2 fighting corner 1 and now fighting corner 3. Yeah . . . is this exciting or what. Some say that in fact, corner 1 is actuallu aligned with corner 3 because corner 1 buys the oil and supports corner 3 economically in other areas.
And of course we can not forget corner number 4. The Kurds (secularist and Christian). Well the fine folks are fighting for survival against all the other corner and want independance.
Now the big guns . . . that would be Russia and America, hmmmm lets see. Russia supports corner 1 (The Regime) and is supposedly attacking corner number 2 (The Rebels) and corner number 3 (Islamic State). America is supposedly attacking corner 1(The Regime) and corner number 3 (Islamic State).
So now Turkey (who has already shot down a Russian jet) and Saudi Arabia wants to join the fray from the air. They will attack corner number 4 (Kurds) and corner number 3 (Islamic State).
Of course if a Russian jet paints a Turkey jet over Syria, we will have the start of World War III. Turkey will claim they have been attacked and the NATO alliance requires action . . . World War I redux.
Sorry folks, I had to write this to see if I could make any sense. Of course anybody who will take time to correct or add to will be very much appreciated.
The whole point of Turkey’s Erdogan is to get NATO/US/EU involved with a ground/air war in Syria. He’s been using the masses of refugees as one would a cannon from the get go. Brings them into his nation and cuts them lose at will, they are his attack machine.
Dream on. NATO isn’t doing anything because Turkey “may” launch an offensive in Syria. And if Russia mobilizes 1/5 of her ground forces, that’s still more than the entire military of UK. And our cousins across the pond are probably the only ones with combat experience in Europe
Kurds are (Sunni) Muslim although there's a few Christians among them and as an ethnic group, they're overwhelmingly secular.
Guess John Kerry (who was in Vietnam) doesn’t talk much to the diaper heads and the Turkeys about peace.
Mercenaries are foreign troops. The Saudi’s would not commit their own military in anything but an extremely limited role.
“Of course if a Russian jet paints a Turkey jet over Syria, we will have the start of World War III. Turkey will claim they have been attacked and the NATO alliance requires action”
Turkey cannot claim NATO protection for anything it decides to do inside Syria. The Russians are there at the behest of the Syrian government and are there legally. The Turk plane over Syria is an invader and can expect an S400 to arrive at mach 6. And you cannot invoke a defensive pact when you are the aggressor inside another country.
Turkey gets a jet shot down, I think the world will tell them to go kick rocks. It would balance the whole place out since they shot down a Russian jet.
“and the NATO alliance requires action”
It does not require war. It requires NATO members to take action they “deem necessary”. That can be a anything down to a phone call to Moscow. Especially if the NATO member started the attack it will be very hard for them to invoke NATO.
How is Russia, bombing sunni rebels in Syria, something that compels Turkey to say they are under attack?
NATO used to be a mutual defense pact. Not it is falling apart and is being exposed as an aggressive menace seeking to expand its turf. Libya was a NATO effort that no sane person could call “defensive”. It is falling apart under Turkey flooding the EU with moslem attackers, but then claiming NATO needs to care about them. This two way street will tear them apart.
I realize mercs are foreign. Where the Saudis would find 150,000 mercs is the question - or is this some reference to US troops? Think the story is bogus anyway.
Ouch- another Putin defender? What’s this I hear about him being gay and his boyfriend being killed in Switzerland?
Yes, the PKK are communist oriented. I wonder to what extent they are cooperating with the Russians?
Yep, that’s in part a consequence of having been one of those enemy-of-my-enemy beneficiaries, IOW, because the Russians and Turks are historically enemies, and the Kurds (well, that particular group of Kurds) are fighting the Turks. Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey all developed relationships with one or more Kurdish factions, but in the territory/ies of their neighboring states. The Shah in particular alternatively supported and sold out Kurdish orgs.
PKK is allied with the Russians or is it the other way around?
>>Now everything becomes a sideshow to the main event,
>> a Russo-Turkish war.
Will it be a sideshow to the rest of NATO?
Thank you for the clarification
Considering that EU and U.S. are full of leaders with questionable judgment, we can’t rule out that it won’t.
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