Posted on 03/27/2016 7:12:45 AM PDT by Hojczyk
However, a state-wide poll won’t tell you the whole story, because the real battle will be fought in the state’s congressional districts. Candidates are awarded 3 delegates per each district they win; California has 53 districts. Then, the remaining 13 delegates are awarded to whoever wins state-wide.
Trump has, historically, performed well in urban, liberal districts, and unfortunately for Ted Cruz, there are a bounty of those in California, clustered around Los Angeles and San Francisco. Trump would walk away with at least 117 delegates simply by winning each Democrat-controlled district. That would not be a fun night for Ted Cruz, and it looks like Trump has the advantage going in.
That being said, there are two caveats for Trump to keep in mind: California is a closed primary, meaning that only registered Republicans can vote, and those urban districts (especially around Los Angeles) have unusually high concentrations of Hispanic voters. Those factors may not hurt Trump, but they certainly won’t help him.
Either way, its a good deal for Republican voters, who are used to having their votes dismissed.
(Excerpt) Read more at opinion.injo.com ...
Scary thought...a state that has ABSOLUTELY NO EFFECT in November gets to decide our candidate.
But if they choose Trump, all is forgiven.
Irrelevent. It'll be President Trump on January 17th.
What would you propose to fix it?
Oh, and CA will have enormous effect in November as it has more electors than any other state.
Don’t be so sure, California has a significant Mormon population.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3414303/posts?page=96#96
Isn’t it strange that the more liberal districts of California will select Trump and the more conservative districts will go for Cruz?
10% of our nation’s population lives here.
About 8% of all republicans in the country live here.
The fact that CA will have a say in the GOP nomination, and that it is unusual, is a factor of CA choosing to go late in the process.
Dismissing CA, as is often done here in FR, is ridiculous. CA has given us Reagan, Duncan Hunter (x2), and Jim Robinson, among others.
CA has no effect, it’s SOLID BLUE. Same for Texas (my state) in the other direction.
As to fixing it - maybe assign the state delegates not by population, but on how they vote - so the relative handful of Republicans in NY and CA don’t get to control the process as much.
Anecdotally, from what I am seeing, Trump is very well thought of in the hard core GOP areas. I see a good number of Trump signs and stickers in the ‘Jefferson’ districts.
I gotta believe this is good for Trump. California Republicans know all too well how important sealing the border is.
Same here around Sacramento. No one is talking about sCruz, Bernie, or Hillary!
Isn’t it strange that the more liberal districts of California will select Trump and the more conservative districts will go for Cruz?
I’ve been wondering that myself. Does he appeal more to libs? Then the state turns around and votes for the DEM in the general election.
Callifornia Mormons are not Utah Mormons! Although we gave up on Mormonism 40 years ago, our names are still on their records and occasionally someone wiil pay us a visit. On one occasion, I was particularly unhappy about the anti-Mormon activities of Harry Reid and I told the visitors as long as Harry was still a member, that they were not welcome to call. They told me that 90% of those local members were of the same mind and could not understand why he had not been excommunicated. That is probably not the case in either Nevada or Utah.
I honestly was thinking about this same scenario just last week. Very strange indeed! And if so, it'll benefit Trump in the primary and then in the general.
“Does he appeal more to libs?”
No,he appeals to rational people who know that a vote for either of the others is a vote for the status quo continuing. I mean if you are honest, you have to say that irrespective of it’s message, conservatism, hasn’t delivered much of anything, particularly in view of the fact that we’ve been co-opted by people who claim to be conservative to get our vote, then go to DC ad perpetuate the GOPe policies.
I'll be happy if it's a Republican.
As nasty as this primary has gotten, turning off one segment of the electorate after another, I have doubts if any of the frontrunners, ie. Trump and Cruz, has a chance in the General.
Trump is alienating the women with his nasty disposition toward the other candidates and if/when Cruz's infidelity is proven, lotsa luck repubs.
Then we have the crook Hillary. She may be forced to drop out for 'health' reasons. Sanders not compiling enough delegates.
IMO we may not have seen the eventual President.
My prediction, Biden/Warren.
I'm still going with Trump. Trust me, it'll be a landslide against hilary
Nothing in the world this conservative Californian wants
more than to be forgiven by a Texan.
Isn’t it strange that the more liberal districts of California will select Trump and the more conservative districts will go for Cruz?”
I think most of the Congressional districts in Orange County will go for Trump.
Yes, it’s ironic that Trump draws support from liberals, since he will be their undoing.
Conversely, it is ironic and even perverse that the most conservative Republicans will shun Trump during the primary season, even though he will be their eventual salvation. Pathetic.
Go Trump!
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