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One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
fivethirtyeight.com ^ | March 29,2016 | Micah Cohen

Posted on 03/29/2016 5:11:53 PM PDT by John W

In this week’s politics Slack chat, we talk Donald Trump, sexism and the general election.

micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Greetings, all! With no debate or election this week, let’s consider a longer-term problem: Trump and women. The Internet spent the past week picking over a startling fact: Women (and I’m talking Republican, Democratic, unaffiliated, etc.) disproportionately don’t like Trump. We’ll get to why in a moment, along with what it means electorally, but first question: The data has shown for a while that Trump has less support among women than among men — why all of a sudden the media interest?

harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): I think it’s a few things. First, because there are no elections or debates this week, the media is looking for new ground to cover. And with Trump ahead in the delegate count, the pivot to the general election is obvious. Second, I think the whole Heidi Cruz picture thing really put the issue at the forefront. Even Newt Gingrich and Ann Coulter are having a tough time defending Trump on this.

natesilver (Nate Silver, editor in chief): One answer is that the media is mostly dudes. But this is part of a broader issue also, which is that the media has only just now started to write how terrible a general election candidate Trump might be. Trump’s favorables among the general electorate might have gotten a bit worse, but they’ve been epically terrible since he launched his bid (actually, since before he launched it). Women are a big part of that, of course.

I mean, it literally took nine months for the conventional wisdom to recognize that someone could be astoundingly popular with a plurality of the electorate and extremely unpopular with a majority of it.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; globalistcruz; noteligiblecruz; openboarderscruz
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1 posted on 03/29/2016 5:11:53 PM PDT by John W
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To: John W

Nate Silver: consistently wrong about Trump. Another election year casualty.


2 posted on 03/29/2016 5:15:06 PM PDT by proust (Texans for Trump!)
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To: John W

This time Trump has REALLY crossed the line, and I mean it this time!

It’s all over for him now!


3 posted on 03/29/2016 5:15:55 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it." --Samuel Clemens)
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To: John W

4 posted on 03/29/2016 5:16:39 PM PDT by paintriot
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To: John W; wardaddy

I’m calling B.S.

I am a woman and I don’t know any women against Trump and I live I the deep South where women are still ladies.


5 posted on 03/29/2016 5:16:45 PM PDT by onyx (You're here posting, so sign-up to DONATE MONTHLY!)
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To: John W
But this is part of a broader issue

But this is part of the broad issue.

Yes. Yes it is.

6 posted on 03/29/2016 5:16:53 PM PDT by disndat
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To: John W

Another reporter trying to push an agenda. Wishful thinking substitutes for reporting facts.


7 posted on 03/29/2016 5:17:09 PM PDT by The_Media_never_lie (Ted Cruz was the man!)
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To: John W

Throwing underwear at the wall, seeing if it sticks . . .


8 posted on 03/29/2016 5:18:22 PM PDT by BraveMan
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To: proust

What is Nate Silver’s track record on election politics?


9 posted on 03/29/2016 5:19:27 PM PDT by John W (Under One Year And Counting!)
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To: onyx

The women in my family are all for Trump.

They really do find Cruz odious.


10 posted on 03/29/2016 5:19:52 PM PDT by dforest (Ted took your money and is laughing all the way to Goldman Sachs)
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To: John W
This race was always going to be about the gender card... for the same reason Obama's races were run (successfully) on the race card.

This is all the MSM/establishment's doing... and they would be doing this no matter who the GOP's frontrunner happens to be.

11 posted on 03/29/2016 5:20:11 PM PDT by Cementjungle
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To: onyx

The only state where Trump got a majority was Massachusetts.


12 posted on 03/29/2016 5:22:01 PM PDT by Theophilus (Always vote. Always vote your conscience. God wins every election.)
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To: John W

He aggregates polls from a bunch of various sources which all conveniently give the same outcomes (nope, no election fraud going on here!), and is consequently hailed as a political genius by the establishment.

His website is a pretty useful barometer for determining who the establishment wants to promote and who they want to tear down, though.


13 posted on 03/29/2016 5:22:02 PM PDT by Objective Scrutator (All liberals are criminals, and all criminals are liberals)
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To: John W

This is it! Trump’s poll numbers will tank now, I tell ya!


14 posted on 03/29/2016 5:22:30 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist (Rafael Cruz: Canadian-born, Cuban ancestry, ineligible for POTUS)
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To: John W

Nothing more than media echo chamber.


15 posted on 03/29/2016 5:23:22 PM PDT by ironman
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To: Objective Scrutator

Is he typically right or wrong about winners and losers?


16 posted on 03/29/2016 5:23:38 PM PDT by John W (Under One Year And Counting!)
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To: dforest

Well, there ya go.

My adult children are only interested in Trump.

My voting age grandchildren are all in for Trump!


17 posted on 03/29/2016 5:25:21 PM PDT by onyx (You're here posting, so sign-up to DONATE MONTHLY!)
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To: John W

He used math models 4 years ago to some success. It all fell apart when trying to analyze the Trump phenonemeon.


18 posted on 03/29/2016 5:25:49 PM PDT by proust (Texans for Trump!)
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To: John W

I call bull shit.

I’m in California and know a good number of democrat women, who support Trump....for....some....weird....reason...

Anyway...


19 posted on 03/29/2016 5:25:54 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway - "Enjoy Yourself" ala Louis Prima)
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To: John W

I call bull shit.

I’m in California and know a good number of democrat women, who support Trump....for....some....weird....reason...

Anyway...


20 posted on 03/29/2016 5:26:06 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway - "Enjoy Yourself" ala Louis Prima)
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