Posted on 04/14/2016 10:50:48 AM PDT by John W
Donald Trump's path to clinching the Republican nomination ahead of the party's July convention is looking increasingly improbable, according to FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver.
Silver's latest delegate projection for Trump showed him finishing at 1,155 delegates — 82 short of the 1,237 needed to secure the GOP bid heading into the convention. That number came from Silver's "deterministic" model — which looked at the most likely outcome for Trump in each state.
In Silver's prior projection, Trump picked up 1,208 delegates, still short of the needed number but conceivably an easier difference to overcome.
That projection came before Trump suffered a crushing defeat in Wisconsin to Ted Cruz, the Texas senator nipping at his heels. Silver had Trump winning 25 delegates in the state. He ended up with only six.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Déjà vu all over again.
That could easily jump with the arrival here of obozo’s next few thousand UNVETTED, UNDOCUMENTED INVADERS from the MIDDLE EAST!
Little drummer boy Nate Silver still is still at it.
Cleveland, Ohio - a former American rust-belt city that was destroyed in the great Trump Riots of 2016.
Cruz will be mathematically eliminated in 5 days ... Trump will get well over 1237 ... Nate, you're going to have to live with your TDS all the way to November.
I found the article fascinating. Impressions, there is a lot of misinformation out there about winner take all states. Second, I found the narrative for Donald more pessimistic that the numbers which indicate revision down, specially in Penn and CA. Third, I see Trump getting ready to call fraud and shenanigans as he does not have organization in states that have at large delegates in addition to primary.
Did someone not say that Trump could still get it at 1,100 delegates?
Even in Silver’s model it all pretty well comes down to California.
My own projection now has him falling a little bit short.
He can still make up the difference with the unaffiliated delegates of Pennsylvania.
Indiana hasn’t had a poll that I’ve seen, so all I’ve heard is just conjecture.
Those 3 states could make Trump the winner on the first ballot, but it is getting pretty tight.
There is also a possibility that many of Rubio’s votes will not be bound in the first ballot.
And Rubio supports Cruz.
There are roughly 80 unassigned delegates, 15 assigned to candidates who have withdrawn, 34 assigned to Rubio who are definitely free and an additional 139 assigned to Rubio who may be free depending on the convention rules.
Under this projection and out of those 129 to 268 available delegates, Trump needs to recruit 82 for the first ballot. That will be a whole lot easier if Trump gets the rules to make all Rubio delegates (i.e., all delegates bound to candidates who both suspended their campaign and failed to meet the threshold for their name to be put in nomination) unbound on the first ballot, but it’s at least possible even without a rules change. Trump claims to be a master of “The Art of the Deal”. It’s time for him to prove it, court those delegates, find out what matters to them from the president we elect in November, and start making promises and deals that he intends to follow through on.
I haven’t heard much about a Trump effort to court delegates, but it needs to start happening as a high priority, and it needs to happen now. Trump also needs to work for every single bound delegate available in these final weeks of the primaries. Trump knows the rules. No matter what anyone thinks of those rules, Trump needs to follow them and he needs to play to win.
Rubio doesn’t support Cruz, he hates him. Rubio is just ganging up to stop Trump who he hates more. Such a sad bunch.
Yes, very interesting. Debated posting Silver’s actual work but this is more concise and interesting, no matter who you support.
Only if he picks up the other 137 from the uncommitted.
“crushing deafeat in wisconsin” right
and what are they going to call NY and the five primaries on the 26th when Trump crushes them? eh?
Gawd i hate the ENEMEDIA
freegards
LEX
Nate Silver also said Trump wasn’t going to win any states.
“Indiana hasn’t had a poll that I’ve seen”,
Some States don’t have Polls so they can steal the votes...
He does a good job backing up his educated opinion with stats.
But he’s using data collected when Trump’s momentum was low. His conclusions may make sense today, but the momentum’s going to shift soon as Trump starts winning again. Let’s see what Nate says next month.
If Cruz Steals it on the Second ballot, he will then go on to the most Spectacular defeat in Republican history. In your heart you know he’s Nuts.
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