Posted on 05/17/2016 7:17:53 AM PDT by winoneforthegipper
When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada) that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic “swing state” — it has voted for the Democrat in every election since 1992, and it didn’t even crack the top 10 in 2012 campaign ad spending.
But in 2016, Pennsylvania could be the keystone of the Electoral College and the ultimate arbiter of whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Also look in the next few months for those with “smart phones” to download apps to keep a close eye against any possible voter fraud.
If you use the 2012 election as a starting point, the Democrats have about a 66 electoral vote advantage going into 2016. Trump is going to have to hold North Carolina and flip Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. Pennsylvania is always a tease about a possible flip but always disappoints. The Philly factor you know.
I remember a line - “Now is the winter of our discontent.....”
It will rise to a level these quislings haven’t seen in their lifetimes. It will defy all twisted political logic, party self-assuredness and categorization by the consultant leeches who exist on the sloth that is politics.
As Nikita once pounded on that podium, “We will bury you!”
What about Pittsburgh, that is the other city that could create possible mischief as well?
Got to remember that it is the union leadership, not the rank and file, who pretty much have gone to the Trump camp.
“They’ve fallen very far, VERY fast since then.”
I was shocked when I got a teaching credential 30 years after leaving public school. The expectations are so low now. And many kids can’t even reach those.
California had to institute a high school exit exam because kids couldn’t read or write. That’s 12 years of teachers passing them without teaching them.
Throw the 2012 election results out, whole different ball game NOW.
Wow.
The big question I have and I have been to “steel city”, Pittsburgh, it is my favorite American city. Could there be possible voter fraud issues there?
Gleason has a gigantic ego and knew that while this bill would actually help the GOP nationally, it would also dilute his influence.
I'm a second career educator, too. Every kid that graduates this year will have spent his/her entire K-12 education under No Child Left Behind.
I'm sure GWB had good-hearted intentions in pushing this legislation, but the end-results are horrifying.
Graduation Rate is the key metric by which schools are judged. Much is made of mandated testing, but that is completely secondary to Grad Rate.
In every school I know, principals and guidance counselors will turn themselves inside-out to bump grad rate. If a kid has a pulse, he walks at graduation. If he doesn't, we'll administer CPR and drag him across to get the diploma.
Pittsburgh is also a fraction the size of Philly. And our minority population is miniscule by comparison.
You want to confront the mobbed-up Black Lives Matter machine, go there.
PA is often described as “Pittsburgh at one end, Philadelphia at the other, and Alabama in between.”
Pittsburgh specifically as “Manhattan Meets Appalachia, and it was a helluva crash!”
These were supposed to be the top public school teachers in America and not only were the questions far easier than what they throw at normal rank and file contestants, they also turned in lower scores.
Absolutely true, Buckeye. But we still manage to field better sports teams.
I have been saying the same for years.
That bill should have been implemented!!!!!!
Sheer idiocy of the Pennsylvania Republican party NOT to do so.
I’m still so mad at that horrible move, that I could spit.
First one-termer ever, since governors were allowed to run for a second term!
Eastern PA chap here.
Couple of things not mentioned which will likely help Trump in this part of the state:
1) The attempt to ship feral blacks out to the suburbs for Philly: One state over in New Jersey they did this with the Mount Laurel decision. Resulted in nice suburban schools having the same bad apples as the inner city schools. A lot of white folks will vote liberal as they genuinely wish for good things for the downtrodden, as long as the downtrodden are not close to them. This new ruling threatens their nice neighborhoods and schools that they spent a lot of money to get into, the will not vote for the party that would confirm the recent decision to do this.
of course no one will say anything out loud, but when the go into the voting booth it will be another story.
2) The entire transgendered bathroom thing: It is just too wacky, making the entire adult world bend to the preferences of a few mentally ill folks. Now the women who are out with their kids do not want their kids accosted by men wearing dresses with very odd sexual predilections. Women will vote self interest and their self-interest is to have this imposed rule of tolerance removed...which means voting republican.
Once again no one will admit his has any effect on their decision but once in the voting booth they will think otherwise.
3) Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Fact is the democratic platform offers nothing different than continued industrial decline we have seen for the past 30 years. Trump may not deliver but he at least is headed in the right direction.
Demographics:
Here are the demographics changes in the last 6 years according to the US census:
White alone, percent, July 1, 2014, 82.9%
White alone, percent, April 1, 2010 81.9%
African American alone, percent, July 1, 2014, 11.6%
African American alone, percent, April 1, 2010 10.8%
It would appear there are fewer Hispanics than in 2010, 8 percent rise in blacks and 1 percent rise in whites. Both groups are anti-immigrant and will be more inclined to vote for trump than prior trends would imply.
Source:
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/42
4) Guns: PA is an odd state in the northeast, with by far the best gun laws around. Because of this we have a lot gun enthusiasts who fled New York, New Jersey and as of 2012, Maryland. Now because of Obamas 2012~2013 attempt to go after guns, the resulting bad laws in Maryland and New York, and Hillary’s stated goal of finishing off what Obama attempted with presidential decrees, the dems are not popular with regards to that issue. Unlike prior elections where folks do not see a real threat to gun rights they do now.
This even effects folks who are not gun people. They see that if guns are removed and the feral city folks are pushed out to the suburbs that the nice areas could get very bad indeed. Nice liberal folks may wish for gun control when they think they will be safe in isolated areas, it is quite another thing when you are denied self defense when they live in the low income development recently put up down the street with your tax dollars.
I would not say it is a slam-dunk, but after 8 years of failed economic polices and rather perverse social policies, unless Philly is able to completely stuff ballots (as they did in 2012), all the trend lines favor Trump.
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