Feel the Math

The New York Times ^ | May 30, 2016 | Paul Krugman

[Trump20162020]

Now, I’m not a political scientist or polling expert, nor do I even try to play one on TV. But I am fairly numerate, and I assiduously follow real experts like The Times’s Nate Cohn. And they’ve taught me some basic rules that I keep seeing violated.

First, at a certain point you have to stop reporting about the race for a party’s nomination as if it’s mainly about narrative and “momentum.” That may be true at an early stage, when candidates are competing for credibility and dollars. Eventually, however, it all becomes a simple, concrete matter of delegate counts.

That’s why Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee; she locked it up over a month ago with her big Mid-Atlantic wins, leaving Bernie Sanders no way to overtake her without gigantic, implausible landslides — winning two-thirds of the vote! — in states with large nonwhite populations, which have supported Mrs. Clinton by huge margins throughout the campaign.

[Trump20162020]

Why can't Sanders' fanboys accept reality, that their favorite socialist lost badly?

[UCANSEE2]

[Fhios]

Sanders has no reason to get out before the convention. He’s waiting on the FBI reports or Clinton goes into a coughing fit and croaks on stage.

Ordinarily nobody would care, but the media keeps pumping the news.

[rockrr]

“Now I’m not an idiot but I do play one on TV” - Paul Krugman

[Fungi]

So the NY Slime has a handle on the truth concerning the race? HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa.......

[Trump20162020]

Has nothing to do with the New York Times. Clinton is going to hit the delegate mark on June 7. Anyone with a brain can see that. Berniebots are delusional if they think establishment superdelegates, who have already said over and over again that they're backing Clinton, are going to abandon her in mass numbers for someone who's received millions less votes.

[Williams]

Except if she’s indicted they obviously will have a disaster on their hands and will have to make a switch. I said if.

[CurlyDave]

I keep hoping the indictment will come after the convention.

RAT chaos would be so fun to watch.

Just being indicted is not enough disqualify her from the ticket. Presumption of innocence and all that.

Donald might even be able to argue that even if she were to plead guilty that would not disqualify her from being president and the RATs have to run her.

[Dilbert San Diego]

WE still have to go through the process.

Sports fans can identify with a team being far ahead in a baseball pennant race, for example. A team can be so far ahead late in the season that they are the “presumptive” winner of a division title. But, they still have to go out and win a certain number of remaining games to clinch it.

That’s the position Hillary has been in. She’s been far ahead in the delegate count, but has not quite clinched it yet.

I think the media have reported the situation accurately. She’s been ahead, but has not mathematically clinched it yet.

[jonrick46]

Clinton: 12,989,134 votes
Sanders: 9,957,889 votes.

Yes, the Berniebots are delusional. The only possibility for a Sanders nomination is if the Beast is indicted and Biden is drafted before the convention.

[jonrick46]

Clinton: 12,989,134 votes
Sanders: 9,957,889 votes.

Yes, the Berniebots are delusional. The only possibility for a Sanders nomination is if the Beast is indicted and Biden is NOT drafted before the convention.

[cpdiii]

Has nothing to do with the New York Times. Clinton is going to hit the delegate mark on June 7. Anyone with a brain can see that. Berniebots are delusional if they think establishment superdelegates, who have already said over and over again that they're backing Clinton, are going to abandon her in mass numbers for someone who's received millions less votes.

One phone call from Obama to Hillary goes as follows:

"I fear you are unelectable and thus my legacy will not be continued! I think it would be a good idea for you to drop out of the race. I have the attorney general, Loretta Lynch, meeting with me today to discuss your precarious legal position due to your obvious criminal actions as Secretary of State."

"James Comey over at the FBI informs me that the Clinton Foundation is nothing but a money laundering slush fund. Oh he also mentioned that he is sending recommendations to the attorney general that she seek indictments and prosecution under RICO act, Fraud, Bribery, Extortion and Tax Evasion."

"I am your friend Hillary and have the power of the pardon. Have a good day and expect to hear from you by tomorrow afternoon. Do not be late"

[Neoliberalnot]

Is the NYtimes considered a credible source? Posting articles from this site should be banned by Jim, IMHO.

[trebb]

Why can't Sanders' fanboys accept reality, that their favorite socialist lost badly?

Be glad they, and he, can't - the longer he stays in the more it hurts Hillary.

[BobL]

“Sanders has no reason to get out before the convention. He’s waiting on the FBI reports or Clinton goes into a coughing fit and croaks on stage.”

That’s a GREAT POINT...once Sanders quits, he can make no greater claim to the ticket than Biden or Warren. But if he’s still running, and Hillary ‘has issues’ then there will be hell to pay if the party doesn’t select him as the nominee.

Lots of fun to watch.

[Chuckster]

For the timing to be advantageous to Zero, the indictment would have to come after the nomination and Bernie has been shoved aside. Otherwise, with Hillary removed, Bernie will be the default nominee. Biden can’t just step in and claim all of Hillary’s delegates, but he can be appointed to replace the nominee after the convention has declared Hillary the candidate and the delegates have gone home.

IF it is going to come, look for the indictment shortly after the convention adjourns.