BigEdLB's State Survey

BigEdLB ^ | 8/2/016 | BigEdLB

[BigEdLB]

This is my survey based on raw polls, adjusting Trump 2-1 for undecideds. Will work on a separate report for debiasing

[BigEdLB]

								Electoral Vote
	# Polls	Trump	Clinton	other		Margin	:	Trump	Clinton
							:	309	229
AL	2	62.9%	37.1%	0.0%		Trump	:	9
AK	2	62.2%	37.8%	0.0%		Trump	:	3
AZ	8	52.9%	43.6%	3.5%		Trump	:	11
AR	2	55.9%	41.1%	3.0%		Trump	:	6
CA	12	38.6%	57.6%	3.8%		Clinton	:		55
CO	8	43.6%	45.1%	11.2%		Clinton	:		9
CT	3	48.5%	49.0%	2.5%		Clinton	:		7
DE	2	45.7%	48.6%	5.7%		Clinton	:		3
DC	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		Clinton	:		3
FL	21	47.7%	46.8%	5.5%		Trump	:	29
GA	9	49.6%	45.1%	5.3%		Trump	:	16
HI	1	43.7%	56.3%	0.0%		Clinton	:		4
ID	4	56.8%	34.8%	8.5%		Trump	:	4
IL	6	41.7%	53.0%	5.3%		Clinton	:		20
IN	4	57.1%	42.9%	0.0%		Trump	:	11
IA	13	48.3%	45.0%	6.7%		Trump	:	6
KS	2	56.3%	36.0%	7.6%		Trump	:	6
KY	3	58.3%	41.7%	0.0%		Trump	:	8
LA	2	60.5%	38.4%	1.0%		Trump	:	8
ME	3	48.0%	45.6%	6.4%		Trump	:	4
MD	5	39.5%	60.3%	0.1%		Clinton	:		10
MA	3	40.5%	59.5%	0.0%		Clinton	:		11
MI	9	47.0%	46.1%	7.0%		Trump	:	16
MN	3	48.6%	51.4%	0.0%		Clinton	:		10
MS	2	59.9%	40.1%	0.0%		Trump	:	6
MO	8	51.7%	42.2%	6.1%		Trump	:	10
MT	3	57.7%	42.3%	0.0%		Trump	:	3
NE	1	59.3%	40.7%	0.0%		Trump	:	5
NV	8	47.4%	43.2%	9.5%		Trump	:	6
NH	17	49.5%	46.1%	4.4%		Trump	:	4
NJ	9	43.2%	50.2%	6.6%		Clinton	:		14
NM	3	47.6%	49.0%	3.4%		Clinton	:		5
NY	14	40.7%	55.9%	3.4%		Clinton	:		29
NC	15	49.0%	46.8%	4.2%		Trump	:	15
ND	1	57.3%	42.7%	0.0%		Trump	:	3
OH	20	48.1%	45.1%	6.8%		Trump	:	18
OK	4	60.3%	34.1%	5.7%		Trump	:	7
OR	5	47.7%	49.6%	2.6%		Clinton	:		7
PA	17	48.5%	45.5%	6.0%		Trump	:	20
RI	1	47.3%	52.7%	0.0%		Clinton	:		4
SC	3	56.3%	43.7%	0.0%		Trump	:	9
SD	1	61.0%	39.0%	0.0%		Trump	:	3
TN	2	60.2%	39.8%	0.0%		Trump	:	11
TX	2	55.9%	44.1%	0.0%		Trump	:	38
UT	7	53.2%	40.8%	6.0%		Trump	:	6
VT	3	34.8%	47.9%	17.2%		Clinton	:		3
VA	11	46.5%	46.7%	6.8%		Clinton	:		13
WA	3	46.7%	53.3%	0.0%		Clinton	:		12
WV	3	67.1%	32.9%	0.0%		Trump	:	5
WI	12	46.4%	48.9%	4.7%		Clinton	:		10
WY	1	69.7%	30.3%	0.0%		Trump	:	3

[Cletus.D.Yokel]

Not to be snarky, but your “polling” CV is...?

[Angels27]

From your mouth to Gods ears

[Redmen4ever]

It is reasonable to suppose undecideds will break to the challenger, but this kind of depends on the challenger’s performance in the debates. Trump has a ton of experience in debates. He has handled himself well in spite of making some mistakes. This was shown in the scientific polls following the debates, in addition to registering in the unscientific or straw polls on various internet sites.

Bigger picture: Support for the Green Party an the Libertarian Party will dwindle, with most of the Greenies going to the Democrat and most of the Libertarians going to Trump. Considering that Gary Johnson has twice the support that Jill Stein has, this is another potential gain for Trump. There are more votes registering for these minor party candidates right now than undecideds. It’s hard to say the polls are anything more than a snap shot at this time, laying out the challenges and opportunities each candidate has. As of right now, taking the polls at face value, Clinton is ahead, but the prospects are good for Trump.

[usafa92]

Thanks Big Ed. Great work as always. I was working up a 303-235 Trump victory yesterday. The convention bounces will now factor into the state polls in a few weeks. Also, this Khan business will run its course in a week or so. Still feeling very bullish on Trump.

[Sir Napsalot]

In a ‘normal’ election.

I think events, not in anybody’s control, will take over the carefully crafted song-and-dance of a ‘normal’ election we’ve had before.

What the outcome will be is anybody’s guess.

[edie1960]

Great to see this on FR today!!!
Been worried about the Killary bounce and all the Khan BS!!
Hopefully, Trump’s massive turn away crowds translate into votes!!
Thanks for sharing!!
Trump HAS TO WIN!!!

[Redmen4ever]

Events:

POSITIVES FOR HILLARY (at this time):
The President is doing well in job approval. Consumer confidence is moderately optimistic.

NEGATIVES FOR HILLARY (at this time):
War weariness. Lethargic economy. Low labor force participation (even after adjusted for age). Real median household income down. Poverty, welfare dependency, drug abuse and suicide are up. Crime is up in major cities while trending down nationally. The country has turned long-term pessimistic, with deepening political, racial and life-style divisions.

POSSIBLE OCTOBER SURPRISES (more like semi-surprises):
More revelations of corruption. More terrorist attacks.

[upchuck]

56 to 43? C'mon SC FReepers. We can do better than that. Let's shoot for 65/35 at least!

South Carolina Ping   
Send FReepmail to join or leave this list.

[upchuck]

Take a look at the <pre> HTML tag. Might be easier than using a table.

Here's the first few lines of your table done with the <pre> tag:

                                          Electoral Vote								                                                                                                 
    # Polls Trump Clinton other  Margin : Trump  Clinton
                                        :   309      229
AL  2       62.9% 37.1%    0.0%  Trump  :     9	
AK  2       62.2% 37.8%    0.0%  Trump  :     3	
AZ  8       52.9% 43.6%    3.5%  Trump  :    11	
AR  2       55.9% 41.1%    3.0%  Trump  :     6	
CA 12       38.6% 57.6%    3.8%  Clinton:             55
CO  8       43.6% 45.1%   11.2%  Clinton:              9

Notice the pre tag makes lining up numbers in a column easier.