Election Update: As The Race Tightens, Don’t Assume The Electoral College Will Save Clinton

Five Thirty Eight .com ^ | 9/1/2016 | Nate Silver

[Jack Black]

The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has tightened. Clinton, whose lead over Trump exceeded 8 percentage points at her peak following the Democratic convention, is ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points today, according to our polls-only forecast.

***

Overall, Clinton’s leads in the tipping-point states — the ones most likely to determine the Electoral College winner in a close election — average about 4 percentage points, close to her numbers in national polls.

[Jack Black]

I know many here don't like Nate Silver, but I still think he's a pretty amazing talent in terms of modeling elections.

This article contains a lot of good news for Trump - the race is tightening and the swing states are tightening too. And as the title points out there is no "magic bullet" in the electoral college to save The Beast.

[Buckeye McFrog]

The “magic bullet” will be turncoat RINOS if they can get the decision into the House of Representatives.

[goldstategop]

Silver is preparing liberals for a Hillary loss.

He knows the polls are shifting towards Trump and if he takes a good lead, the election would become his to lose.

And he needs to remain credible.

[laplata]

I think you hit the nail on the head.

[Gaffer]

To me, prior prognostication success for what’s coming has no foundation on which to base predictions, I believe.

We’re close now. Very close, and anything ‘predicted’ right now by traditional seers is just wishful thinking and hype in my opinion. I can see 1980 from here. I stood there in line to vote then, and I can see it. I believe it, and that is what I stand on now.

[Gay State Conservative]

The debates will be key.Of course the moderators of these debates (along with The Former Twelfth Lady of course) will try to sandbag Donald at every turn so he’ll have to keep a cool head.

[Revelation 911]

If inrecall...Reagan was neck and neck with carter in the polls...none showed the landslide it was....polls are bs

[ConservativeDude]

oh, man! When Nate starts saying bad news, liberals wet and soil themselves! This is going to cause a PANIC!

And as we have seen, when hilary starts to panic...she makes even more mistakes!!!!! And the media starts to LOOK panicked! OHHH YESS!

[Gaffer]

I knew standing in line that day they were all bullsh!t

[JTHomes]

If that happens, it’s open war then, right?

[Voluntaryist]

Yes! That’s exactly what Nate Plastic is doing :)

[apillar]

I've said it all along, just like Reagan/Carter 1980 the debates will decide this race. In 1980 the liberal media had spent the entire primary convincing voters that Reagan was a far-right Cowboy who was going to start World War III his first day in office, Carter remained a slight favorite right up until the debates. Yet when the debates rolled around the country saw a likeable, reasonable candidate with command of the issues in Reagan. They never looked back and Reagan won in a landslide.

[ground_fog]

that’s why he can never really say the truth even if Trump is winning..He’s a shill above all and,proved he no longer has it many times including the primaries. His rep is far above his ability..a one hit wonder

[Williams]

It’s kind of obvious her numbers are falling, negatives are way up. And of course the swing state polls will tighten accordingly. Media keeps saying she’s ahead by margins that don’t exist anymore. Plus she doesn’t have Trump’s charisma to come back with.

[BlueStateRightist]

“The debates will be key.”

Trump needs to avoid a Rick Lazio moment. If he does he wins.

[avenir]

“And he needs to remain credible.”

After Mexico and the immigration address, you have doubts? He appears to have found his groove with the cursed teleprompter, I listened to the speech on the radio and thought it was freestyle.

[Jack Black]

Except: he publishes his models way ahead of time and deoesn't modify them. he ranks the pollsters. he inputs the data into his models and he gets his numbers out.

Which doesn't really leave a lot of room for him to be doing willy nilly adjustments.

But suit yourself.

[IrishBrigade]

.Reagan was neck and neck with carter in the polls...none showed the landslide it was....polls are bs

yu are aware that in 1980, political polling was still in its infancy as a predictive medium, and nobody but Gallup ever made money from it...

pollsters don’t make money for being wrong...

[Repealthe17thAmendment]

One of the difficult aspects of the national polls is that the election is really more like 50 individual polls, with some states more meaningful than others.

Still, it's worth remembering that Bush was able to win in 2000 even though he didn't get the most national votes. So, the same model may hold true that the Democrat majority in the urban areas like LA, NYC, SF, and Chicago create a national majority, but don't translate directly to swing state electoral votes. That would mean even a slight overall lead for Trump could translate into an electoral victory.

[Jack Black]

The “magic bullet” will be turncoat RINOS if they can get the decision into the House of Representatives.

Interesting theory. That would require, at minimum some state to go for a 3rd party. Otherwise in a 2 person (electoral college) vote one of the two will certainly get the majority. (Although technically a 269-269 tie is possible.)

Gary Johnson is at about 18% in New Mexico. 3rd place. I don't see him pulling out the win in his home state, which would make a "no majority" Electoral College more possible.