Posted on 09/14/2016 11:01:11 AM PDT by SMGFan
The week before last I looked at Donald Trump’s likely “path to victory” and adjudged it as “a tightrope walk down an insanely narrow path to 270 electoral votes.” I’d now take out the adjective insanely and maybe even suggest it’s a walk along a balance beam rather than a tightrope. As the popular-vote margin separating Clinton and Trump gradually shrinks, putting together a map of states Trump might carry involves less conjecture about where he might make gains and more confidence that he might be able to consolidate gains he has already made.
________
Something similar has happened in state polling, with a subtle but important difference: What looked a couple of weeks ago like a long wall of states in which Trump needed to overcome a long-standing Clinton lead has gotten shorter. This is most dramatically shown in the state-by-state projections from Daily Kos (a pro-Democratic but, if anything, rather impressively pessimistic outlet), which now gives Trump an advantage not only in the previously red but blue-trending states of Arizona and Georgia, but also in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. Add all that up with the states everyone expects Trump to carry and he’s at 259 electoral votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at nymag.com ...
Those guys must feel sick...
Honestly, I think the EC is already gone for Cankles. Today’s CO, NV, OH polls prove it. I think the real question is, “How big will Trump’s victory be?”
OK so pessimistic means favorable to Trump, so that's a good thing. Had to read that twice and apply my biased media translator.
And still...they are WAY behind the curve.
Trump had 233 EV on 538 this morning. Just three states like OH, NC, and FL would put him over 270.
Better tell Krauthammer, Larry Sabato, everyone at CNN and WaPo, and a few thousand other talking heads...
I thought Trump still trailed in CO. If he gets CO, along with FL and OH, I would think it’s a solid bet he would win.
Just to see the look on Cher, Amy Schumer, Barbara Streisand, Joyless Behar, Rob Reiner, and all the rest of the Commie libs face when they see that Trump is President..I wonder, will they leave the US like they promised
I think libs are using Common Core math
Nate Silver (pinhead) at 538 just moved OH and NC to Trump.
Wew!! Poor Nate Plastic!!!
Hmmm, I don't see Trump having 233 without at least one of those states. You sure you're not double counting at least one of them?
If the current rate of change in the polls continues at the present pace, Trump will get over 300 EVs.
I'm sure they will manage to keep finding some polls favoring Hillary (internals: 50% Democrat, 35% independent, 15% Republican).
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Pretty good except for including wacko two week old polls in the rolling average.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.