Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending October 1, 2016

Various Polls | October 2, 2016 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

September 24, 2016
September 17, 2016
September 10, 2016 (Premier Edition)

Purpose of the Model

This was asked of me earlier this week. Here is my reply.

The purpose of my model over the years has never been to predict the outcome, as I am not a pollster gathering my own data. The purpose of my model has always been to reflect back the aggregate implications of the various polls that do exist, and leave it to the reader to draw insights and implications. Polls from different states with different margins of error are hard to conceptualize at an aggregate national level without a model like this to normalize the results and apply the Electoral College weightings.

I do not unskew or otherwise adjust poll results based on what I think. I use the data as presented in order for the reader to draw conclusions. You can reject it out of hand as garbage-in garbage-out, or you can isolate the garbage vs. your own perceptions and publicly call out the garbage and shame pollsters into improving their accuracy, or you can accept the results as true and take the appropriate mitigations.

Model Changes Since Last Week

• None.

The Race for the White House

This week we had the first debate, where Trump appeared unprepared and Clinton didn't collapse. Post-debate polling was brutal for Trump. Some suspect the polling is over-sampling Clinton-favorable demographic groups in order to maintain the Clinton narrative, because state polls are opposite to some national daily tracking polls.

A website called statespoll.com reviews polls against demographic trends and attempts to adjust the outcomes based on sample variances from known demographics. Where available and material, I am including the results of statespoll.com adjustments for comparison.

States reversed by statespoll.com:

• Colorado - Tilts Clinton to Tilts Trump
• Florida - Leans Clinton to Tilts Trump
• Nevada - Tilts Clinton to Tilts Trump

We shall see how this shakes out after the next debate.

Summary Results

Given the state of polling as it is, Donald Trump has an expected Electoral College Vote count of 239 versus Hillary Clinton's 300. Trump's probability of winning collapses to 28% from last week's 43%, still down -4% from last week.

With statespoll.com adjustments, Donald Trump would have an expected Electoral College Vote count of 254 versus Hillary Clinton's 284. Trump's probability of winning would be 39%.

State Polling Updates

Below are state polls since the last report, followed by the state ranking and history of Trump's chance of winning the state since Labor Day.

In California (55 EV), refreshed poll from KCBS/SurveyUSA of 732 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) confirms Clinton's overwhelmingly lead 59%-33% in a 4-way race. California remains Safe Clinton (0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%).

In Colorado (9 EV), a poll from CBS News/YouGov of 991 likely voters (9/21 to 9/23) has Clinton holding the lead at 40%-39% in a 4-way race (4.4% MOE). However, a poll from Gravis of 779 registered(?) voters (9/22 to 9/23) has Trump leading 41%-37% in a 4-way race (3.5% MOE), and a poll from CNN/ORC of 784 likely voters (9/20 to 9/25) has Trump leading 42%-41% in a 4-way race (3.5% MOE). A post-debate poll from PPP of 694 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) has Clinton pulling bouncing to 46%-40% in a 4-way race (3.7% MOE). Polls from August were retired. Colorado remains a Toss-up but now tilts towards Clinton (4.2%, 60.0%, 57.6%, 46.3%).

statespoll.com adjusts Colorado to Tilting Trump (53.4%).

In Florida (29 EV), a post-debate poll from PPP of 826 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) shows Clinton leading 45%-43% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.4%). A post-debate poll from Mason-Dixon of 820 likely voters (9/27 to 9/29) shows Clinton leading 46%-42% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.5%). A post-debate poll from Fox News/Opinion Survey of 619 likely voters (9/28 to 9/29) shows Clinton leading 47%-46% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.4%). Florida moves from Tilting Trump to Leans Clinton (40.9%, 58.1%, 68.1%, 52.8%, 30.9%).

statespoll.com adjusts Florida to Tilting Trump (51.0%).

In Georgia (16 EV), a poll from WSB-TV/Landmark of 600 likely voters (9/21 to 9/22) shows Trump leading 47%-43% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.0%). Georgia remains Strong Trump (62.2%, 62.2%-, 9.2%, 90.6%, 90.0%).

In Louisiana (8 EV), a poll from JMC Analytics of 905 likely voters (9/22 to 9/24) shows Trump leading 45%-35% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.3%). Louisiana remains Safe Trump (100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%).

In Maine At-Large (2 EV), a new poll from Press Herald/UNH of 513 likely voters (9/15 to 9/20) has Clinton ahead at 40%-37% in a 4-person race (4.3% MOE). Maine's at-large votes remain Leans Clinton (36.3%, 29.7%).

In Maine CD-1 (1 EV), a new poll from Press Herald/UNH of 266 likely voters (9/15 to 9/20) is has Clinton winning 50%-28% in a 4-person race (6.0% MOE). Maine's CD-1 vote is Safe Clinton (0.0%, 0.0%).

In Maine CD-2 (1 EV), a new poll from Press Herald/UNH of 231 likely voters (9/15 to 9/20) is has Trump winning 48%-34% in a 4-person race (6.0% MOE). Maine's CD-2 vote is Safe Trump (100.0%, 100.0%).

In Michigan (16 EV), an updated poll from Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell of 1,956 likely voters (9/27 to 9/27) closes 5-point Clinton lead (down from +6% to 46% to 41%) in a 4-way race (2.24.0% MOE). A new poll from MIRS-GSCI of 600 likely voters (9/18 to 9/24) also has a 5-point Clinton lead of 46%-41% in a 4-way race (2.2% MOE). A new poll from Detroit News of 600 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) has a 7-point Clinton lead of 42%-35% in a 4-way race (2.2% MOE). Michigan remains Strong Clinton (2.3%, 2.3%, 22.0%, 22.0%, 5.0%).

In Minnesota (10 EV), a poll from KSTP/SurveyUSA of 625 likely voters (9/16 to 9/20) shows Clinton leading 46%-39% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). Polls from July and older were retired. Minnesota remains Strong Clinton (14.7%, 14.7%, 8.4%, 7.2%, 1.5%).

In Missouri (10 EV), a poll from CBS News/YouGov of 1,087 likely voters (9/21 to 9/21) holds Trump's lead at 46%-37% in a 4-person race (3.9% MOE). A refreshed poll from Remington Research of 1,279 likely voters (9/26 to 9/27) also shows Trump leading at 49%-39% in a 4-person race (3.0% MOE). Polls from August were retired. Missouri moves from Strong Trump to Safe Trump (64.6%, 79.4%, 92.4%, 99.3%, 100.0%).

In Nevada (6 EV), a refreshed poll from Suffolk of 500 likely voters (9/27 to 9/29) has Clinton beating Trump 44%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.4%). A poll from the Las Vegas Journal Review of 800 likely voters (9/27 to 9/29) has Clinton beating Trump 45%-44% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.0%). Nevada moves from Leans Trump to Toss-Up tilting Clinton (32.1%, 32.1%, 61.4%, 74.1%, 48.1%).

statespoll.com adjusts Nevada to Tilting Trump (50.3%).

In New Hampshire (4 EV), a poll from WBUR/MassINC of 502 likely voters (9/27 to 9/29) shows Clinton leading 42%-35% in a 3-way race (MOE 4.4%). New Hampshire remains Strong Clinton (0.1%, 4.4%, 9.5%, 6.4%, 4.6%).

In New Mexico (4 EV), a refreshed poll from Ipsos/Reuters of online likely voters (9/2 to 9/22) totally flips to Clinton leading 47-38% in a 2-way race (MOE unknown, assume 4.5%). A poll from Albuquerque Journal of 501 likely voters (9/27 to 9/29) shows Clinton leading 35%-31% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.4%). New Mexico switches from Strong Trump to Strong Clinton (0.0%, 0.0%, 85.1%, 85.1%, 9.2%).

In North Carolina (15 EV), a new poll from High Point of 404 likely voters (9/17 to 9/22) has Clinton narrowly leading 43%-42% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.9%). A post-debate poll from PPP of 861 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) has Clinton leading 44%-42% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.3%). North Carolina falls back from Leans Trump Toss-Up tilting towards Trump (39.2%, 44.7%, 42.5%, 66.0%, 50.5%).

statespoll.com adjusts North Carolina to Leans Trump (74.4%).

In Ohio (18 EV), a poll from Gravis of 850 registered(?) voters (9/22 to 9/23) shows Trump leading 43%-42% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.4%). Ohio remains Leans Trump (26.8%, 65.6%, 62.4%, 69.7%, 68.5%).

In Pennsylvania (20 EV), a poll from Morning Call of 486 likely voters (9/19 to 9/23) has Clinton's lead dropping back to 2% with 40%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 5.0%). A poll from CNN/Opinion Research of 771 likely voters (9/20 to 9/25) has Clinton's lead shrinking to 1% with 45%-44% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.5%). A post-debate poll from PPP of 886 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) has Clinton's lead bouncing back to 45%-39% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.3%). Polls from August were retired. Pennsylvania moves from Strong Clinton to Leans Clinton and back to Strong Clinton (2.6%, 3.9%, 16.0%, 12.2%, 21.6%).

statespoll.com adjusts Pennsylvania to Leans Clinton (31.5%).

In South Carolina (9 EV), a poll from Winthrop of 475 likely voters (9/18 to 9/26) has Trump leading 42%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 4.5%). South Carolina remains Strong Trump (89.5%, 89.5%, 98.4%, 98.4%, 89.4%).

In Utah (6 EV), a poll from the Salt Lake Tribune of 820 likely voters (9/12 to 9/19) has Trump leading 34%-25% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.4%). Utah remains Safe Trump (97.3%, 97.3%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%).

In Virginia (13 EV), a poll by CBS News/YouGov of 1,237 likely voters (9/21 to 9/23) shows Clinton's lead continuing with 45%-37% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.3%). A poll by Christopher Newport University of 1,003 likely voters (9/15 to 9/23) shows Clinton's lead at 39%-33% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.9%). A post-debate poll by PPP of 811 likely voters (9/27 to 9/28) has Clinton's lead at 46%-40% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.4%), no spread change from their prior poll. Virginia remains Strong Clinton (30.9%, 30.9%, 14.6%, 2.3%, 1.3%).

In Washington (12 EV), a poll from Emerson of 700 likely voters (9/25 to 9/26) has Clinton leading 44%-38% in a 4-way race (MOE 3.6%). Polls from August and earlier were retired. Washington moves from Safe Clinton to the outer fringes of Strong Clinton. (0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 1.3%).

Must-Win States

This is a chart of the states that were won when Trump reached 270 or more Electoral College votes. The numbers indicate the percent of the time the state was won when Trump won the election.

States in the 90+% range must be won to reach 270 electoral votes.

Elecctoral College Vote History

Using an average of polls from Real Clear Politics, the results of simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
03-Sep-16	148	214	295	21%
10-Sep-16	152	231	298	29%
17-Sep-16	181	258	343	40%
24-Sep-16	192	256	318	43%
01-Oct-16	180	239	302	28%

Probability Curve

State Rankings Definitions

• Safe - 100% probability of winning
• Strong - 75% to 99.99% probability of winning
• Lean - 62.5% to 74.99% probability of winning
• Toss-Up - 50% to 62.49% probability of winning

24-Sep-16 State Rankings

Clinton - 292						Toss-Up - 30				Trump - 216
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Tilt		Tilt		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	7	Connecticut	29	Florida	9	Colorado	15	North Carolina	18	Ohio	11	Arizona	9	Alabama
3	District of Columbia	20	Illinois	2	Maine	6	Nevada					16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	Delaware	16	Michigan									11	Indiana	6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii	10	Minnesota									6	Iowa	4	Idaho
10	Maryland	4	New Hampshire									9	South Carolina	6	Kansas
11	Massachusetts	14	New Jersey									38	Texas	8	Kentucky
29	New York	5	New Mexico											8	Louisiana
3	Vermont	7	Oregon											6	Mississippi
1	Maine CD-1	20	Pennsylvania											10	Missouri
		4	Rhode Island											3	Montana
		13	Virginia											5	Nebraska
		12	Washington											3	North Dakota
		10	Wisconsin											7	Oklahoma
														3	South Dakota
														11	Tennessee
														6	Utah
														5	West Virginia
														3	Wyoming
														1	Maine CD-2
119		142		31		15		15		18		91		107

Electoral Map

[Art in Idaho]

". . two opinion polls released yesterday, Colombian voters will approve the government’s peace deal with Marxist FARC rebels. . but NO Won!"

Interesting. Let's hope the citizens of America have learned enough to vote against the Marxists here.

[Political Junkie Too]

What's wrong is that it's not polling anymore, it's gaslighting the desired outcome.

-PJ

[Impy]

So wait, Trump was up in New Mexico before? I never saw that. I’ve had that state safe Clinton from the start.

Hillary plus only 4 there is not good for her.

I question these 2 way polls, Johnson is on the ballot in every state, he should be in every poll and Stien should too in states where she’s on the ballot, and McMuffin in a few states as well.

Maine-2 is looking great. Knock on wood.

Trump needs a good strategy for the next master debate, or to skip it if it’s determined it’s a no-win trap that will be spun into a Clinton win no matter how it goes.

[Laslo Fripp]

Thanks for the ping, PJT.

Who should I believe?

[Political Junkie Too]

So wait, Trump was up in New Mexico before? I never saw that. I’ve had that state safe Clinton from the start.

New Mexico was only up based on an early September Reuters/Ipsos poll that LS suggested I include when there no other New Mexico polls. There are now traditional polls in New Mexico. Even a later Ipsos poll contradicts the earlier one.

-PJ

[Seattle Conservative]

Trump has the following rallies over the next few days. I had read that he had one in New Mexico tomorrow, but nothing on his schedule yet (maybe they’re still trying to obtain a venue??):

Mon: Pueblo and Loveland, Colorado
Tues: Prescott Valley, Arizona
Wed: Henderson, Nevada

Pence has the following:

Mon: Ashland, VA
Tues: VP Debate
Wed: Harrisonburg, VA

[LS]

Trump now in lead in CO on precious RCP

[Clintonfatigued]

It’s been a really bad week, the worst since the tiff with the Islamic parents of the fallen soldier.

A lot more than usual is riding on the VP debate tomorrow.