Posted on 10/21/2016 5:25:20 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
I think hurticane also slowed things down
A) 79,000 more R absentee ballots returned.
The balance of absentee ballots (not D or R) are independents and other parties.
You keep doing this every day and leaving me confused with your analysis. Could you clarify. When I look at the numbers, it seems that Republicans are performing about the same as in 2012 statewide, and that the Dems are UNDERperforming in Hillsborough. Am I wrong?
Yes, with a caveat.
Right now, Rs lead Ds in RETURNED absentee ballots by 1.8%. I think that can grow to 3% by election date. That would match the 2012 lead for Rs. In that sense, “similar” to 2012 - for absentee voting.
For Hillsorough, DEMs led by 20,000 in 2012 for combined Absentee ballots and in-person early voting. So far in 2016 they are leading by just under 5000. But no in-person voting yet. That starts next week. I assume their lead will grow with in-person voting. Question is whether their lead is over / under 20,000. Under 20,000 is good for us and over 20,000 is good for DEMs. It is too early to draw conclusions from Hillsborough until we see in-person early voting numbers.
Conclusion: Rs looking similar to 2012 in absentee voting. Too early to tell yet on Hillsborough. Hillsborough county is the typical “swing” county in Florida.
Thanks for the updates!
I know some Floridians who had major disruption in their lives b/c of the hurricane. Turned out to be a non-event, but, yes, the point being....early voting stuff hasn’t been on their minds last few weeks.
Have one friend who really buttoned up and it missed him. But he was without power for days and had to clear fallen trees from his property
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