[SpeedyInTexas]

So far in 2016, 33.7% of REP ballots have been returned and 32.6% of DEM ballots have been returned.

Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.

3,102,040 total absentee ballots mailed as of today

2,481,632 total returned (3,102,040 * 0.8)

1,067,101 - REP 43% (2,481,632 * .43)

992,652 - DEM 40% (2,481,632 * 0.40)

74,449 REP Lead Predicted

[SpeedyInTexas]

ping

[JamesP81]

Trended well a couple of days in a row. Let’s hope it continues.

[ScaniaBoy]

I like the trend. The percentage of D:s has dropped the last 5 days.

[dp0622]

I thought I read that the repubs have to be up by 110,000 in order to counter the dem voting day advantage.

I could be very wrong.

So many numbers being thrown around these days.

I apologize if i am.

[usafa92]

I get the apples to apples comparison on 2012 to 2016, but I don’t think we can discount that the narrower margin may very well be Democrats who are voting for Trump.

[Chewbarkah]

Question. Does “Reps led in this category by 79,000 in 2012”, mean A) there were 79,000 more R Absentee Ballots returned than Dem; or, B0 in the final election count of all returned Absentee Ballots for 2012, Romney had 79,000 more votes than Obama? I ask, because I am trying to think through how Independents might account for the appearance of a smaller R Absentee Ballot advantage this time.

If I am reading your numbers correctly, about 18.2% of Absentee Ballots returned through 10-21-16 are neither R nor D.

In 2012, the final breakdown (per USAElectionsAtlas.com) was:
Obama: 49.91% 4,237,756 votes
Romney: 49.03% 4,163,447 votes
Other: 1.06% 89,816 votes

Figures for 2008 are similar, but Obama outscored McCain by roughly 250,000 votes. Other was almost the same as 2012.

Point: 2012 and 2008 results imply that Other traditionally wins only about 1% of actual votes, regardless of what people say in polls or how they identify themselves in registration. Due to great disgust with both D and R candidates in 2016, let’s go wild and guess that Other, triples its final share of votes to 3%. This implies a large majority of the 2016 “Independent” Absentee Ballots being returned actually have have votes for either Trump or Hillary.

[MrChips]

You keep doing this every day and leaving me confused with your analysis. Could you clarify. When I look at the numbers, it seems that Republicans are performing about the same as in 2012 statewide, and that the Dems are UNDERperforming in Hillsborough. Am I wrong?

[Sidebar Moderator]

Thanks for the updates!