Posted on 10/25/2016 6:32:52 AM PDT by LouieFisk
LATEST COUNTY RESULTS https://axiomstrategies.com/abc
So, it shows Trump up in NV, OH, and NC. Tied in FL, and behind in all the others. He would still need to turn another blue state (or two) red.
Trump seems to be doing well. Fla.shows HRC +2. It is a Dem+5 poll. One thing I found is these are pretty simple pollsthat don’t give numerous pages of unimportant information.
I don’t know what to make of it, that’s for finer minds than mine.
:D
But my best take on this is overall, taken as a whole, things seem at least within MOE or tied.
You mean that they finally updated these battleground counties?!
Red Flags: Trump lost ground in Hillsborough, Florida and in Northampton, PA.
Virginia looks out of reach.
Colorado seems like a long shot, too.
Despite Jeff Roe (Cruz’s hatchet man), painting this as dire, he knows Trump has this and here’s why. Polling indicates Trump most likely has Ohio, NC and NV per his results. Based on early voting analysis by others and our own LS, Florida looks good. So starting with Romney’s 206 and adding Florida and OH, we get Trump to 253. If we want to be optimistic, let’s give him NV per Roe’s polling as well as IA, which is another 12, and gets him to 265. Add ME2 and he is at 266.
Now here’s where things get dicey but Roe conveniently spins this as a negative for Trump. Trump is down a whole TWO points in Colorado and a whopping 3 in PA. Either one of those puts him over the top. However, Roe can’t have it both ways. He says Luzerne County is a bellweather predictor in every race (state and federal) since 2000 and Trump is up there by 11, but he discounts that by saying Trump is down 3 statewide. It’s either one or the other. My feel is that Trump wins PA by 3. Luzerne is tailored made to Trump’s message, but it can’t be off 15 points if it’s been a bellweather county.
So, Trump has a razor edge to skate through but it’s a good path and clearly doable. She is on shaky ground but nobody says that. And also, don’t overlook Doer County in WI that has gotten much tighter, and I still think MI may provide an election night surprise.
Statewide results:
slightly ahead in two states he absolutely must win: NC and OH, also slightly ahead in NV which, even though small, can make the difference in several scenarios
tied in another state he absolutely must win: FL
slightly behind in two states he needs to win one of: CO and PA
a little further behind in VA and WI. It would be nice to win these states, but realistically, each of them is a bit more of a stretch
BOTTOM LINE: it comes down to Get-out-the-vote. We turnout, we win. It’s as simple as that.
This race isn’t over. There is a sense in which it has just gotten started.
OMG, you are all the most depressing of people. Stop and apply a little critical thinking skills to this before your jump off the cliff. I would hate to be in any kind of a back against the wall situation with you people. This is an outstanding result for Trump and clearly doable.
Axiom is a Republican affiliated research company. I don’t think they rigged these surveys. Trump is down in Virginia and Wisconsin. He looks good in Ohio. Hitlery is up, barely, in Florida. Trump looks good in Nevada.
Really! This is quite doable.
People have to realize there’s a reason we actually vote instead of deciding the election by polling LOL!
“This is an outstanding result for Trump and clearly doable.”
==
Yup. And as with all polling, keep the salt handy. My spidey senses tells me it’s a squeaker and ,as has been noted here, it’ll come down turn to turnout. Trump has a yuge advantage in enthusiastic voters, the Clinton voters I’ve heard in the media just don’t seem very excited, she has to depend on the machine. (And “machines”, if they’re Soro’s).
I fully appreciate that Mr. Trump has proven himself a winner and intends to win this election.
I have explicit trust and faith in him.
Just offered my initial analysis, did not intend to depress anyone.
Fully expect to see some states surprise us come election night.
As I said in another thread, I think Trump takes PA. The demographics are perfect for his message, the interior of the state has been decimated by trade. It also has the second oldest population in the country (behind Florida), so fewer millenials and younger voters in the mix.
I totally agree with you. Trump’s message should resonate across PA. He wants to bring back good-paying jobs and put people to work again. From the steel workers and miners from the western portion of the state to building ships in the naval yard of Philadelphia, Trump’s appeal ought to be a natural fit for the Keystone State!!!
Disregard my post #6.
Have no doubt Trump will win Florida.
Just look at the awesome crowds he drawing this week.
Colorado and Wisconsin may be YUUUUGE surprises.
Trump definitely has the enthusiasm edge.
Vote Trump/Pence!!!
Not great: PA clearly is in play, but earlier Trump was up in both counties, big. Now this is tossup.
VA disappointing.
WI a lost cause.
Good news? As I keep saying, OH safe, NC is safe I think, and despite Hillsborough, this is not enough to save FL for Cankles I think Cankles is safe.
NV is a dilemma: I don’t think +6 in Washoe overcomes Clark, but would need NV people to weigh in. CO at -2 or -3 is a much better shot I would think.
No, Cankles is not up in FL. If she was, the D counties like Hillsborough-—FORGET THE POLL-—would look better in actual returns. Hillsborough, with absentee returns and early votes, is at 8,000 with 13 days left. In 2012, Ds won by +30,000.
It’s odd that the PA ‘bellweathers’ have split. I wish they had asked the same questions in both surveys. No data on education level of respondents in any of these either.
Anything within 5 in VA is a possible win considering recent past history of polling vs actual results.
Good point. I should have mentioned my statement was based on the Axiom data.
Axiom says HRC is +2 in Hillsborough. I don’t believe she is winning my state.
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