Posted on 10/28/2016 2:57:22 PM PDT by Kaslin
After today, I say FHRC is done.
Trump has a chance, but if Pennsylvania is on the must win list, it isn’t going to easy
The AJC polls, historic polls like Towry, etc. can’t be believed IMO. There is no doubt Trump will take Georgia.
Heck, even a newcomer business man (Perdue) took that Senate seat vacated by traitor Chambliss and all the polls Sam Nunn’s daughter had it in the bag. Perdue beat her handily.
Hillary win in Georgia, only if there is massive, massive fraud. And it still would be unlikely.
No amount of voter fraud is going to beat Trump......now!
Screw 270. 539 Baby!!!!
Trump has to carry Romney’s states plus Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa and either Virginia or Colorado to win. Only path. Not going to carry PA.
*part of a play to aid down ballot Dems*.. my foot!
An optimist.
Wisconsin for Clinton? The Rino Kasich effect?
Would you rather have him be a pessimist?
An entire post of Trump behind in a bunch of needed states. Much as I want to believe much of this is manufactured by the MSM, I still didn’t want to read this all in one place.
These three are the trouble: Colorado, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. The demographics in Colorado and Virginia have just gotten worse and worse for Republicans.
I start out with Romney’s race as the baseline. If Trump gets all Romney’s states plus FL, OH and IA, then he has multiple paths to victory. He would have to add on any of these pairs or singles to get there...
PA (can even lose IA if he gets this)
VA
NV and CO
CO and NH
NV and NH (tie, which is a win)
CO and ME CD2 (tie, which is a win)
I look less at the current polls and more at how strongly those states have gone D or R since 2000.
In 2012, Obama won VA by 4 points, NV by 6, ME CD2 by 8 and the rest of these states Trump might need to pick up by 5. PA has simply been going D for decades and it seems like a longshot to think that trend would turn around.
Ohio and Florida were won by Obama with much smaller margins, so they seem more gettable for Trump, and Ohio has almost been conceded by Hillary at this point. Iowa was a 5 point spread, but Trump seems to be heavily favored to win Iowa this time.
He can’t win it only by focusing on New England, but he can win by focusing all his energy in the west or on PA. Still, if he wants to focus energy on the smallest geographical areas he could use to win, focusing on CO, NH and as an insurance policy against NH, ME CD2, would be the way to go. Most of these paths include CO, so that state is incredibly important for Trump.
Hillary’s smartest move was picking a V.P. from a battleground state that’s been trending slightly Dem, Virginia. It effectively took that state out of competition. She could end up winning by one state, all because of Kaine.
Judging by this article, the last state or two Trump needs to win are the ones where he’s polling the worst, PA, CO and NH.
If NV is really trending that close for Trump as this article states, then he just needs to shore that up and pick up either CO or NH to win. Barnstorming NH might make the most sense, given his northeastern roots, his big win in the primary there, and the fact that the state is smaller with less ground to cover. He can make NH as much of a second home as it becomes in the primary season.
And how effing stupid are people that they’ll vote for a candidate simply because her running mate, who happens to be a deranged ass-clown of a human being, used to be an elected official in their state.
“Trump has to carry Romney’s states plus Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa and either Virginia or Colorado to win. Only path. Not going to carry PA.”
True. He doesn’t need PA, but if he wins it, he wins.
IA, OH, FL all look good he just needs one more state...
Kaine is not that well liked in Virginia. He squeaked in with 53%. Mostly on fraud and the media playing up a monkey reference close to voting day.
Trump wins with 311+el votes. End of story.
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