Posted on 11/05/2016 7:09:01 PM PDT by Az Joe
A 7 point swing in the national popular vote from 2012 would put Trump up by 3, which is an almost certain electoral win.
The other thing is that within the last few days, Hillary, Slick Willie & BO all were somewhat out of control.
I must be getting tired
Trump takes on all comers! He looks strong against that rabble!
Johnson seems like a good holding tank for hispanics who don’t like Trump or Hillary. If the more traditionally aligned white GOP voters knock off the stupid idea of a protest vote, perhaps Trump could pick this one off. Might be a big help especially since ground conditions in NV seem iffy.
Nah. I should have qualified my statement first as “Rhetorical question:”.
My contention is, and has been, that the Black and Brown “Macho” (males) culture does not want to be ruled by a woman, especially a white one and that this will become known on Election Day.
That’s the flaw in viewing this year with the same models as 2008 and 2012 - as they didn’t have a significant 3rd party presence. This one, the leader is in the mid 40s, so lots of room for shifting.
Unfortunately, this might plausibly include some shifting to Hillary as well.
I think Hillary has just about all the votes she is going to get. Any peel off from third parties will go to Trump now, or the vast majority of it anyway.
I’d expect that to show up in polling, even with difficulty polling those groups.
Dornsife La Times found 40% Latino support for Trump in today’s report that had him +5.3
I was up just reading how Trump is up 7 in Iowa, a state Obama won by 6 in 2012. That’s a 13 point swing to the right. If it is in any way indicative of the election nationally...
It’s a very White state. Watch the White states.
Non-Hispanic White Population % By State
1. Vermont 94.0%
2. Maine 93.9%
3. West Virginia 92.6%
4. New Hampshire 91.4%
5. Iowa 87.5%
6. North Dakota 87.4%
7. Montana 87.0%
8. Kentucky 85.7%
9. Montana 84.7%
10. South Dakota 83.4%
11. Idaho 83.2%
12. Wisconsin 82.5%
13. Minnesota 81.9%
14. Nebraska 81.0%
15. Indiana 80.6%
16. Missouri 80.4%
17. Ohio 80.3%
18. Utah 79.5%
19. Pennsylvania 78.2%
20. Oregon 77.3%
21. Kansas 77.1%
22. Michigan 75.9%
23. Tennessee 74.8%
24. Massachusetts 74.6%
25. Rhode Island 74.6%
26. Arkansas 73.6%
27. Washington 70.9%
28. Connecticut 69.3%
29. Colorado 69.1%
30. Oklahoma 67.4%
31. Alabama 66.3%
32. North Carolina 64.2%
33. Delaware 64.0%
34. South Carolina 63.8%
35. Virginia 63.5%
36. Illinois 62.7%
37. Alaska 62.5%
38. Louisiana 59.5%
39. Mississippi 57.4%
40. New Jersey 57.3%
41. New York 56.9%
42. Arizona 56.6%
43. Florida 56.2%
44. Georgia 54.6%
45. Maryland 53.2%
46. Nevada 52.1%
47. Texas 43.9%
48. New Mexico 39.3%
49. California 38.8%
50. D.C. 35.6%
51. Hawaii 23.0%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_non-Hispanic_white_population
MoE is 3.0 so this poll could easily represent a tie.
Florida keeps me up at night.
I said some time ago, that as important as Florida is, Trump could shock the pundits by losing Florida yet winning the Presidency by ambushing Clinton in the Midwest.
Would be a hoot to watch the media lose their minds if Trump takes Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Add any one of either Colorado, New Mexico, or Nevada to the list, and it’s President Elect Trump.
Carl Rove would have a stroke.
I don’t think so. Just like I have a hard time thinking he’d lose VA if he’s close in PA.
I don’t think so. Just like I have a hard time thinking he’d lose VA if he’s close in PA.
Percentage of whites really doesn’t play well with Santa Fe being very liberal. (lots of movie stars and artist). All towns north are very old Hispanic who tend to vote conservative.
Albuquerque is close to a 50-50 mix. Lots
of California transplants. (like Texas)
The population in Albuquerque has practically doubled since the middle 70’s.
Lots of drugs running the I-25/I-40 corridors.
Las Cruces is a college town close to El
Paso and the Mexican border. (lots of illegals).
Roswell, Carlsbad, Artesia and towns east
(towards Texas) are mostly oil field and big ranches, and are very conservative.
Read this. It goes for Black male culture too.
It will be true on Election Day.
TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN THIS!!
Trump getting 40% of the Hispanic vote according to LA times poll. Much better than Romney’s 28% in 2012 and equal to W getting 40% in 2004.
http://theamericanfirst.com/trump-surging-la-times-poll-40-latino-vote-latinoswithtrump/
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