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Three Election Models Pick Trump to Win on Tuesday
The New American ^ | 07 November 2016 | Bob Adelmann

Posted on 11/07/2016 10:29:11 AM PST by VitacoreVision

Poll-watching junkies are having a field day. There is one poll or another publishing its results on an almost hourly basis. As this is being written on noon Sunday, for instance, Investors Business Daily (IBD), which touts its survey as “the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections," has Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one point. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times’ “Daybreak” poll shows Trump ahead of Clinton by five points.

Nate Silver, in his FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast, has Clinton’s chance of winning at 64.7 percent versus Trump’s 35.3 percent. Silver predicts Clinton will win 48.4 percent of the popular vote (versus Trump’s 45.5 percent, which will give her 291 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 246.

In its running summary of other polls, Real Clear Politics shows Clinton up by 1.8 percent over Trump in the popular vote, while in the Electoral College it’s Clinton with 216 and Trump with 164, leaving 158 votes as “toss ups."

There are at least two other prognosticators who don’t rely on polls at all, and they are predicting Trump will win on Tuesday. The first was explained by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge back in January when he said that the stock market would predict November’s winner:

This relationship occurs because the stock market reflects the economic outlook in the weeks leading up to the election. A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

Therefore, your time might be better spent from August through October watching the stock market rather than the debates if you want to know who will be President for the next four years.

(Excerpt) Read more at thenewamerican.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; donaldtrump; hillary; predictions; tna; trump
Right on cue the stock market has declined nine days in a row (through last Friday), the first time that has happened since 1980. But more importantly is how it has behaved since Monday, August 1. The S&P 500 Index has declined by 4.5 percent which, according to Durden, translates into an 86 percent chance of Trump’s winning on Tuesday.
1 posted on 11/07/2016 10:29:12 AM PST by VitacoreVision
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To: VitacoreVision

A rising stock market indicates an improving economy, which means rising confidence and increases the chances of the incumbent party’s re-election.

Unless of course the incumbent party has been stagnant
and anti-capitalist for EIGHT years, then it could reflect
the increasing chances of the challenger.


2 posted on 11/07/2016 10:37:45 AM PST by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: VitacoreVision

Praying they got it right. So, just for grins, suppose the gopE and nevertrump assclowns had taken a page from the dnc and everybody got on board. Circle the wagons and defend (lie til you die) the nominee no matter what, would Trump be walking away without even having to look in the rear view mirror? The gopE has no one to blame but themselves and the big headed ego asshats who, despite promising to, backed out of that promise to support the nominee regardless. Such class they have huh? They tried to set Trump up from the start as someone that could never get the nomination. Please, it you haven’t already, get out and vote tomorrow.


3 posted on 11/07/2016 10:38:22 AM PST by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?!)
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To: VitacoreVision

Another poll if anyone’s interested:
http://www.geekwire.com/2016/geekwire-poll-casting-ballot-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/


4 posted on 11/07/2016 10:39:07 AM PST by toldyou (Even if the voices aren't real, they have some pretty good ideas.)
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To: VitacoreVision

Election models... oh wow! This thread is useless without pictures!


5 posted on 11/07/2016 10:39:17 AM PST by DariusBane (Liberty and Risk. Flip sides of the same coin. So how much risk will YOU accept? Vive Deo et Vives)
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To: VitacoreVision
pssst...Hillary cancels her election night fireworks extravaganza
6 posted on 11/07/2016 10:42:56 AM PST by NautiNurse (ILLary uses BleachBit to scrub her medical history away...)
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To: VitacoreVision

Trump is doing better in the battleground state polls, seems some of those MSM national polls aren’t reflecting that like the IBD and USC polls seem to be doing.


7 posted on 11/07/2016 10:43:43 AM PST by ScottfromNJ
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To: DariusBane
Election models... oh wow! This thread is useless without pictures!

Here you go!


8 posted on 11/07/2016 11:03:46 AM PST by capydick (“Within the covers of the Bible are the answers for all the problems men face.”)
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To: ScottfromNJ

Which states? By what percentages? What do the internals look like? Inquiring minds want to know.


9 posted on 11/07/2016 11:04:28 AM PST by bigredkitty1 (March 5, 2010. Rest in peace, sweet boy. I will miss you, Big Red.)
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To: VitacoreVision

The stock market is going down because the Fed has pretty much promised to smack the economy with an interest rate hike right after the election. Still, the voters know the Dems have been holding the economy back and we are not where we should have been after a recession.


10 posted on 11/07/2016 11:14:06 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: VitacoreVision

I believe this is America’s last chance to get it right.

If it does tomorrow, the nation lives on to work out it’s troubles with a good man at the helm.

If it doesn’t, tomorrow is essentially the end of the nation our Forefathers provided for us.

Trump has laid it all on the table. People can select criminal leadership that does not respect the Constitution or the rule of law at all, or they can select a man with a proven record that respects the U. S. Constitution and the laws of our nation.

If, having presented the Conservative model for review, the people of this nation turn it down in favor of criminality, never again will someone get the opportunity to present it. It will be deemed to have been tried, and rejected. Nobody will adopt that policy in a run for the presidency again.

The prospect of the absolute nightmare of Clinton being given the leadership over this nation is so calamitous, that it is overpowering in and of itself. Regardless of her viability, even the prospect of someone that evil being give the nomination and then the chance to fight to rule us, forces any other thoughts out of our minds.

Do I think Trump will prevail? In Trump’s campaign for the presidency, I think he has matured, realized what is truly on the line, and I think he is God’s man in this campaign.

Essentially we have God’s plan for us, and we have Satan’s plan for us. It’s really about that simple.

A nation that truly wants a future for it’s children and future generations will choose Trump. A nation that wants to be PC and elect the nation’s first woman president whether she is a criminal or not, will chose Clinton.

I don’t know how this will end. I do know how Christian history ends, and if Clinton is chosen, it will end sooner than later.

So I hope for the best, see signs of hope and signs that are troubling.

I await the will of the governed.

They hold our fate in their hands.


11 posted on 11/07/2016 11:56:59 AM PST by DoughtyOne ( And on the second day they voted. And the Lord saw, and it was good.)
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To: capydick

Thanks! Lol!


12 posted on 11/07/2016 12:02:19 PM PST by DariusBane (Liberty and Risk. Flip sides of the same coin. So how much risk will YOU accept? Vive Deo et Vives)
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To: capydick
Indeed, and I'm guessing that THIS model is voting for Trump...


13 posted on 11/07/2016 12:15:01 PM PST by MaskedMan (The)
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To: MaskedMan

NOT GUILTY. Oops wrong thread.


14 posted on 11/07/2016 12:21:11 PM PST by Former Proud Canadian (Gold and Silver are real money. Everything else is a derivative)
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To: tet68

The stock market is predicting a Trump win and recovery.

Pray America wakes


15 posted on 11/07/2016 12:21:42 PM PST by bray (Because you would be in jail)
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