Posted on 11/15/2016 11:30:26 AM PST by grayhog
Months after voters in the United Kingdom defied surveys and chose to leave the European Union — after pollsters had widely predicted the country would remain — Donald Trump is betting on the American electorate delivering another polling surprise.
"Believe me, this is Brexit times five," Trump said in Pennsylvania last week.
But experts say a polling upset on November 8th is incredibly unlikely, and that the Brexit comparison just doesn't hold water.
The only real similarity is that British voters that opted to leave the European Union and Trump supporters are both driven by the same kind of anxieties and demographic groups, UCLA Visiting Professor Bill Schneider told NBC News.
"It's anti-foreign and concentrated on working class voters, so there's a similar kind of frustration," he added.
Here's why the U.S. won't be the next Brexit.....
1. The polls aren't that close in the U.S. They were in Britain....
2. There's a higher quantity, quality, and diversity of polls in the U.S...
3. It's not a simple majority vote...
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
"The lead that Clinton has across the board ... is pretty solid. It would be a cataclysmic failure of not just polling but all of what political scientists think they understand," Cohen said
And the absolute best of all:
Schneider agreed..
"There's no evidence that there's some hidden Trump vote waiting to spring on election day," he said. "This is a great myth that accompanies elections all the time, that losers often perpetrate."
I love reading these articles and laughing at the pathetic “experts”.
As I kept saying prior to the election it was obvious that Trump was going to win and the polls were being manipulated. Just one look at the rallies and the differences were obvious. Thousands of people lined up for Trump’s rallies that were held in stadiums and Hillary’s rallies were held in school gyms filled with High Schoolers that were not eligible to vote.
Polling had its heyday when they had enough technology to make it work but most people still used landlines. The tech is even better but it is less reliable since more people are off the landlines.
And a big reason the snowflakes are in revolt. They were lied to repeatedly by the MSM.
And nobody loses their job.
That’s why Gallup did not do any Presidential Polling this year..............
CAN YOU HEAR US YET ??
Romney also had big rallies. The difference was, Romney made fun of the 47% while trump talked about improving the rust belt and inner cities (getting blacks to NOT vote for hillary was just as important as getting Michigan blue collars to vote for Trump)
Patronizing claptrap. Our “anxieties” are legitimate concerns. And we are the majority (if you just count citizens).
“It’s just a flesh wound.”
People think that pollsters are trying to accurately determine the sense of the voting public, but that’s incorrect. Most of these pollsters were trying to INFLUENCE the voting public. All rules of probability and statistics can go out the window when the pollster is manipulating the results to support a predetermined outcome, as I’ve posted endlessly about. The poll results showing Hillary in the lead were intentional, nothing to do with landlines or anything else.
Yes. Trump ran circles around the effort - if we can call it that - of Bishop Willard.
Thank you. Please re-post as often as possible; this needs to be kept in the forefront of our consciousness in perpetuity.
The implacable hubris of these people needs to be beaten to powder. If Trump had been your standard Republican, he would have fallen for the trap of acknowledging the possibility that he even could lose. He kept focused on victory and this supplied the momentum that pushed him over the top.
I don’t know enough about the UK to know if the pollsters should have seen Brexit... but they damned well should have caught what was going on in the US!
All the signs were there, every last one of them, and they just refused to open their eyes to them.
The simple assumption of 2012 turnout levels for Hillary was on its face laughable... just flat out laughable.
Trump did end the election about the same as Romney in total votes... but Hillary under performed Barack by over 4.5 Million votes!! On paper at the national level it looks like Trump didn’t do anything more than Romney, but in reality he did tons more... he put way more votes in the box in most of the states... in some crazy liberal states he grossly underperformed Romneys numbers.. like in Cali he put 1.5 Million votes less in the box... but he put those 1.5 Million in the box elsewhere, in states, all over the map... He out Preformed Romney all over the map... with the exception of a few big blue states.. and that’s how he won.. and won big.
He put over 1/2 Million more votes in the box than Romney in PA and MI... meanwhile Hillary got 600k fewer votes than Barry in Pa, MI and WI...
The 12 turnout model the pollsters were using was flawed and idiotic... Its like they looked at what Cali was likely to do.. and assumed that would apply to everywhere... it didn’t.. not even close.
PA was obvious from the get go it would be in play, as was the rest of the midwest... no guarantee they would flip, but from the very start of the campaign there was no doubt Hillary would likely not perform on par with O and Trump would likely outperform Romney... the tossing aside of “Free Trade” would speak right to the working class voter in the rust belt...
It was highly predictable that Trump would put close to 3M in the box in PA... and Hillary would have to meet or beat O’s numbers in 12 to hold the state... and the likelihood of her doing it were slim.. and at the end of the Day... that’s exactly what happened..
The “miss” here in the US was simply a matter of echo chamber nonsense, the signs were ALL THERE from the beginning... that Trump would outperform Romney and Hillary would under perform Obama.. and Trump’s drastic change in some fundamental policies that both parties had marched lock step on for nearly 30 years if not longer, would likely allow a drastic shift in electorate behavior in at least certain regions is not all over the country.
Hillary losing wasn’t some undercurrent that couldn’t be seen... it was a denial by the pollsters to look for it. For God sake people, Trump decides to hold a last minute rally in MI at 1AM on election day and gets 31,000+ people show up for it... with less than 24 hours notice it would happen!! If you couldn’t see that what was going on was not anything close to a Hillary landslide you were in denial.
Also, by Friday end of the day, it was obvious by early voting results that NC Hillary, short of an absolute miracle had no shot a NC... and while FL couldn’t be chalked up as a win for Trump... the performance in early voting with any honest analysis put Hillary’s odds of holding it at less than 50%. The early vote turnout in both states also confirmed that every assumption being used for polling was WRONG.. DEAD WRONG... 2012 turnout was not going to be what happened...
It was all visible, every last part of what happened on NOV 8, long before the vote started... but they all decided to just not open their eyes to see it.
“Romney also had big rallies.”
Romney had two or three big rallies right at the very end.
Trump had tens of thousands attend his rallies all throughout the primary and the general.
No comparison.
Nice post. My hat’s off to you, Ham!
CA....
Trump was getting 20, 30k+ rallies all cycle.. not only that. but folks showed up hours ahead of time to just get in, and if they didn’t get in... they would stand outside and stay for hours more until the rally’s ended...
HIllary couldn’t fill a bingo hall... She had to basically hold a free concert to get a crowd..
She came here to Pittsburgh, to a venue that only fits 2800 people, and is LITERALLY right on the Pitt Campus, and she had to have a Bon Jovi concert to fill the place... She had NO innate enthusiasm... she would get whatever the baseline D vote was in PA.. and not a single vote more... FOlks who would vote D if you put mickey mouse on the ballot... she would not expand beyond those voters... not at all.
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