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A Memo to the Next President on Winning in Afghanistan
War on the Rocks ^ | Dec 9, 2016 | Joseph Collins

Posted on 12/11/2016 11:18:56 PM PST by jcon40

Mr. President-Elect: Neither you nor Secretary Clinton said much in the campaign about the war in Afghanistan. I don’t blame you. It’s a complex issue, and there was no electoral payoff in it. In the last four years, America’s policy in practice has been to “not lose” in Afghanistan with the least amount of expenditures possible. Washington’s uncertain trumpet has encouraged the Taliban to fight harder and for Pakistan to help them. In the ensuing chaos, both al Qaeda and the self-proclaimed Islamic State have stronger positions in Afghanistan than they did just a few years ago. This is, in part, due to the success of Pakistani military forces against militants in the border regions of their country. Their success pushed bad actors into Afghanistan, adding to an already perilous situation. Our only ace in the hole has been the Afghan security forces who are fighting hard with minimal assistance. The Afghan government under President Ashraf Ghani is dedicated to the fight, but faces daunting levels of economic and corruption challenges. There is also an internal political struggle with the legislature and local critics – the stuff of a budding democracy. Some of your advisors will tell you to cut your losses in Afghanistan. Don’t. Nothing smells worse than defeat or abandonment. Our enemies still tell their recruits about how we were forced to leave Lebanon during the Reagan years and Vietnam before that. Others will tell you that Afghanistan is beyond hope. It is not. The policy accountants will tell you that we have spent far too much money on Afghanistan. They are right, but those billions were wasted only because the United States lacked the will and a strategy to bring the war to a successful conclusion.

(Excerpt) Read more at warontherocks.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: nationbuilding; winafghanistan
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1 posted on 12/11/2016 11:18:57 PM PST by jcon40
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To: jcon40

I would destroy all the poppy crops and let the Afghan people sort things out on their own.


2 posted on 12/11/2016 11:22:06 PM PST by Cowboy Bob
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To: jcon40

I admit to glossing over the proposal, but what does it mean to “Win in Afghanistan”?


3 posted on 12/11/2016 11:24:40 PM PST by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: jcon40

Why? Why don’t we get the heck out of there? We have no business being there.


4 posted on 12/11/2016 11:30:18 PM PST by Spiff
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To: jcon40
When I was in Afghanistan, I witnessed an American Army with no will nor strategy to win. Because there was no way to win as long as as Pakistan is a safe haven. .

The author omits the fundamental issue: allowing Salafism to exist in any form. If Pakistan allows it, then they cannot be a friend of the United States. Period. That is how you win: isolate the governments who allow it to be preached. So Screw them and double down on India. At least the lines will be clearly drawn, and there will be no long engagement with no end in sight.

5 posted on 12/11/2016 11:38:01 PM PST by Salvavida (The restoration of the U.S.A. starts with filling the pews at every Bible-believing church.)
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To: Gene Eric

From article ......following quote from Dec 2009 pre-surge.

Our overarching goal remains the same: to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.  To meet that goal, we will pursue the following objectives within Afghanistan. We must deny al Qaeda a safe haven.  We must reverse the Taliban’s momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government. And we must strengthen the capacity of Afghanistan’s security forces and government so that they can take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future.

These were the right objectives, but the Obama administration did not stick with the surge long enough to bring them about....... (also from article)


6 posted on 12/11/2016 11:42:14 PM PST by jcon40
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To: jcon40

Get on the planes and LEAVE. There is zero path to “victory” there because the Afghan society and culture is so F’ed up, it is utterly incapable of rising to become a modern nation state.
The alternative is to stay there forever.

But its pure delusion to think otherwise.


7 posted on 12/11/2016 11:44:12 PM PST by DesertRhino (November 8, America's Brexit!!!)
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To: jcon40
Obama:

Lord of the Flies

 photo obamapicker.gif

He wouldn't know an ounce of WIN if he fell over it and it jacked itself up his a$$.

8 posted on 12/11/2016 11:48:15 PM PST by Candor7 ( Obama fascism article:(http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html)
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To: Salvavida

Thank You for your service.

Point #2 did seem to talk about pressuring Pakistan and using India as a fall back.

In the link in the article < Contractors > it refers to a number of Indian Mercenaries already there. I believe it said 70% of the 25,00 Mercenaries and that figure was from August 2016.

Obviously an inherited mess for Trump. Interesting to see what he does.

Best Wishes


9 posted on 12/11/2016 11:48:45 PM PST by jcon40
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To: jcon40

We have been there for 15 years and they are no closer to a nation state than they were the day before we went in. If we left the Afghan government would collapse within a week.

This would be true in another 4 years, 10 years, or 15 years.

We have two choices there. Walk away, or stay forever. But without our forces and the 4 trillion we have already spent there....they will collapse in days. This will always be true.


10 posted on 12/11/2016 11:56:28 PM PST by DesertRhino (November 8, America's Brexit!!!)
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To: Gene Eric
...but what does it mean to “Win in Afghanistan”?

This is absolutely the central question since multiple empires have crashed and burned when attempting to "win in Afghanistan." We need to learn from that history and be wiser in the choice of foreign policy we apply there. I would be in favor of a well-placed intelligence apparatus that can determine when a critical mass of bad actors is attempting to bring plans in to action. Then let the drones fly to scatter them to the four winds of the desert. Apply regularly and vigorously.

11 posted on 12/12/2016 12:56:07 AM PST by T-Bird45 (It feels like the seventies, and it shouldn't.)
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To: jcon40

I think I trust Mad Dog to come up with a plan for a win for the USA.


12 posted on 12/12/2016 1:01:43 AM PST by greeneyes
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To: T-Bird45

What you said should have prevented 9-11. From what I understand, the assets and intelligence were in place and ready to go.


13 posted on 12/12/2016 1:26:48 AM PST by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: Gene Eric

what does it mean to “Win in Afghanistan”?


My question exactly. What does “winning” in Afghanistan look like?


14 posted on 12/12/2016 1:27:59 AM PST by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: Gene Eric

Take off and nuke the place from orbit.

It’s the only way to be sure.


15 posted on 12/12/2016 1:45:09 AM PST by Jim Noble (Die Gedanken sind Frei)
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To: jcon40

The way to “win” in Afghanistan is to a) get the hell out; and b) stay the hell out.

Same goes for Libya, Syria, Yemen, etc.

The PNAC/neocon foreign policy has been such a catastrophic failure for so long that I view those who want to continue it to be the open enemies of the people.


16 posted on 12/12/2016 3:00:16 AM PST by thoughtomator (Purple: the color of sedition)
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To: DesertRhino

Not one more American should die for a sunk cost fallacy.


17 posted on 12/12/2016 3:01:12 AM PST by thoughtomator (Purple: the color of sedition)
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To: jcon40

Nuke it from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.


18 posted on 12/12/2016 3:32:06 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: Salvavida; jcon40; Spiff
We are in Afghanistan because a certain jug eared moron, running for President, thought it would display his (non-existent) foreign policy chops to say that we need to be fighting in Afghanistan. When American voters bought the whole package of this con man as a leader, we ended up fighting in the graveyard of empires.

Apparently the experiences of the British Empire and the Russians in Afghanistan weren't enough for that historically illiterate fool.

19 posted on 12/12/2016 4:01:34 AM PST by Hardastarboard (Freedom Trumps Fascism)
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To: Cowboy Bob

Not just destroying the poppy crop, destroy it all, salt the ground, allow no males of gun toting age into the refugee camps that follow. Would kinda end all resistance in a generation. We’re not gonna do it, but if I was in charge, I would. Gotta quit pussy footing with the savages. Just my 2 cents.


20 posted on 12/12/2016 4:10:15 AM PST by mikefive (RLTW)
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