Skip to comments.Did Democrats Just Begin an Electoral Comeback by Winning in Delaware?
Posted on 02/27/2017 10:00:46 PM PST by nickcarraway
The $64,000 question for Democrats seeking to fight back against Donald Trump and a Republican Congress between now and the 2020 elections is whether their recent problems in turning out their voters, especially in nonpresidential contests, can be changed by the energy of a burgeoning anti-Trump resistance.
The first real answer to that question may have occurred this weekend in a special state-senate election in the First State, Delaware. And though it would be unwise to assume it to set a reliable pattern, in this one case Democrats passed the test.
The contest was over a seat in a state-senate chamber that was otherwise tied 1010. It was vacated by Democrat Bethany Hall-Long, who was elected Lieutenant Governor of Delaware last November. Republicans ran as their candidate John Merino, who lost the district by just two points in 2014. Given the exceptionally low turnout typically drawn by special elections, the GOP had every reason to expect a win and thus control of the Delaware Senate for the first time since 1972.
But instead Democrat Stephanie Hansen won the seat by a landslide 5842 margin. Not coincidentally, over a third of registered voters in the district turned out, which is very good for a special election in midwinter (the weather on Election Day was unseasonably mild, but also included an unseasonably disruptive thunderstorm).
The Hansen campaign represented a good combination of national assistance and locally driven messaging. The Democrat raised over twice as much money as her GOP opponent, much of it from small contributors around the country, and also benefited from significant independent expenditures. Local volunteers also had a lot of out-of-state help. But local factors mattered too, as Paul Blumenthal noted:
While the race brought in huge numbers of outside volunteers, it was mostly fought over local issues like transit, the environment, education and the state budget. Erik Schramm, Hansens campaign manager, said the campaign had to juggle messaging to highlight local issues while harnessing the national mood to excite volunteers.
Democrats will try to replicate their Delaware success in upcoming special elections for congressional seats especially on April 18 in Georgias 6th District, vacated by HHS Secretary Tom Price, where Democratic newcomer Jon Ossoff has already raised nearly $2 million to compete in a huge field dominated by warring Republicans and in the regular off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Winning obviously matters most to Democrats, but the thing to watch in terms of future trends is turnout. If turnout is up significantly over past nonpresidential elections, Democratic odds of winning back the House and a goodly number of governorships and state legislative chambers in 2018 will go up accordingly, particularly if Donald Trump continues to tread water or even sink further in popularity.
Trump did NOT lose the popular vote. Stop spewing the leftist talking points. Illegals voting for Hillary gave her an advantage in CA - she did NOT win the popular vote.
And I heard that little piss-pants talking the other day about how important a free, adversarial press was, as in Trump bad. Yeah, free and adversarial would be great, but what we actuality get is non-stop BJ’s for statist tyrants, and continuous derangenent about anybody sane, or even any (R). Look how much they hated him and he was like 10% to the right of FDR. He didn’t seem to think the lack of adversariality was a problem under Ebola, nor the steps Ebola took to stamp our what little honest journalism dared occur, but NOW it’s a problem. What a putz.
No, that’s a given in a one party state. The GOP only nominates designated losers except where Democrats allowed GOP to win.
I live in Southern California. I ASSURE you Hillarys huge advantage here was just from illegals. Whites overwhelmingly voted for her here to. Trump is completely dispised here in the Peoples Republic of California. He is utterly hated here and anyone who would vote for him is subject to violence. Even Orange County voted overwhelmingly for her. No Democrat since FDR has carried Orange County.
Get the money out of politics... unless it is a democrat. A democrat winning a democrat seat in a democrat district in a democrat state is not a bellwether.
Trust me nyrag.com, there ain’t no pony at the bottom of that pile of manure.
yes i know, i was being sarcastic
>> Trump is completely despised here in the Peoples Republic of California. He is utterly hated here and anyone who would vote for him is subject to violence. <<
I’m much happier to be out of the liberal enclave of Hollywood where I taught three years ago. Believe me, life would be extremely unpleasant working there now.
Nevertheless, I believe people are tiring out from the relentless anti-Trump suppression. When we see DJT standing up to the media, it encourages us all — bigly.
The predictions of the demise of one political party or the other has always been premature.
So far in special elections: We’re net 1. We picked up a seat in Minnesota, and held a seat in Virginia, and they held a seat in Delaware. Each of these contests was hard fought. Lots of outside money and people.
We have the same scenario coming up in CT.
There is no story unless the Republican wins and somehow the Republicans regain control of a chamber.
If a Democrat wins it is business as usual—one billion a year in debt, sanctuary cities filled with “migrants” getting “free” food, “free” housing, and “free” medical care and anybody with real money fleeing the state...in other words, business as usual.
A Democrat replaced a vacated Democrat seat... and the Left has to try to make that into hopeful news and a big “turnaround”. They are in for more shocks in 2018, I guess.
Actually, DE was quite competitive until the 1980s. Dewey won it in 1948.
Wow, a Dem won a Dem district...Fake news...
Is someone having fun here?Delaware?Thats like expecting California to turn Republican overnight.Its not going to happen.
New York Mag may be spoofing, but the libs who support (and write for) it really are stupid enough to believe that Delaware is some kind of Republican backwater that Democrats have wisely been trying to redeem.
Believe it or not, this is actually doable for Trump in 2020. He has four years to flush the voter roles of illegals. Limit voting to legal, breathing American citizens and we have no idea how many states he will win.
Is democrats winning in Delaware a new thing???
Democrats spent over a million dollar defending a solidly Democrat senate district.
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