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Dem lead in generic ballot polls worries GOP
The Hill ^ | November 26, 2017 | John Kamisar

Posted on 11/26/2017 5:41:46 AM PST by Pinkbell

Republicans head into the holiday season with a daunting number hanging over their heads - 10.7 percent.

Democrats lead their Republican rivals by 10.7 percent on the generic congressional ballot, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data. That mark is the highest the RCP's average has gone since just before the 2010 elections, where Republicans netted 63 House seats.

It's a gloomy sign for Republicans, and one that dovetails with President Trump's sagging approval rating to boost Democratic optimism about taking the House and raises questions about whether Republicans will be able to take advantage of Democratic weakness on the Senate map.

"It's always stupid to make firm predictions in anything, whether it be politics or the Super Bowl. But it seems clear we are heading in a bad direction" said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.

"What we've seen so far this year that the constant is massive Trump unpopularity, a growing unpopularity, and we are starting to see that electorally. Knowing there's never going to be a Donald Trump pivot in any sense, what would tell us that anything in this midterm is different?"

Democrats are pointing to promising results from the off-year elections earlier this month as a promising sign for 2018.

A resounding win by the Democrat in Virginia's gubernatorial race, as well as strong showings among suburban voters, topped the headlines. But there was more promise down the ballot in other states, too.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats cleaned up in most of the "collar counties" that make up the Philadelphia suburbs. Voters elected Democrats to serve on the Delaware County council for the first time since 1980. Democrats saw similar success in other nearby counties like Chester County, and local Democratic candidates specifically pointed to Trump as one reason for their success. Most of those suburbs are represented by Republicans.

(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2017polls; 2018elections; 2018midterms; fake; fakenews; fakepolls; gop; republicans; trump
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I posted a thread the other day about a Democrat who happens to be a lesbian winning a reliably Republican seat in deep red Oklahoma - a district Trump won with over 60% of the vote. That is a warning sign. Also, in some of these state races such as in Virginia and elsewhere, Democrats have been able to pick up some reliably Republican seats.

FReeper Jim Noble shared this comment in the thread:

In New Hampshire, three legislative seats that have never been Democrat, from towns won bigly by Trump, have flipped in the past six months (we have a very large House of Representatives, so these races are all small voter pools).

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3605230/posts

These are warning signs. We know what happened with Obama. He went in flying high, and look what happened. He lost over 1,000 seats and left the Democrats decimated. The Democrats have momentum right now, as the party of power often gets as they have enthusiasm (it's easier to be against something than do something), and they are utilizing it.

As I said in the other thread:

Republicans are killing themselves in 2 areas:

1. They are a circular firing squad. They are so busy running to the MSM to virtue signal and throw fellow Republicans/Trump under the bus and not busy returning fire. They should all be on offense. The Dems would be when it comes to investigations. Republicans should be looking into the emails, Comey, the dossier, uranium one, the election rigging, etc. Instead, we have them propping up the Russia probe, embarrassing Trump by not letting him make recess appointments, passing sanctions he had no choice but to sign, and fools like Corker attacking him publicly and working on a plan to take the nuclear decision that every President gets away from Trump.

2. They are getting nothing done. Seven years, and they are in chaos. Bills should have been drafted and ready to go when Trump came into office. Instead, they were too busy tossing Trump under the bus during the campaign and preparing to object to Hillary that they got nothing prepared. Now they are too busy REFUSING to implement Trump's agenda - one that was a winning agenda.

In point one I spoke about offense, and in point two I said they should have had legislation ready and should be putting through Trump's agenda. This part of the article illustrates something that bothers me:

Much of the Democratic enthusiasm has been organized around opposition to Trump, as well as concerted efforts to oppose the two Republican legislative priorities - a repeal of ObamaCare and the GOP tax reform plan.

Democrats have used both GOP legislative pushes to accuse Republicans of taking the side of big business and the wealthy over the little guy.

"The enthusiasm, surge in participation, and increased activism, a lot of it is its a real rejection of the Trump and Paul Ryan policies that are really toxic," Kelly said.

Why does this always happen? Why do the Republicans sit there and allow the Democrats to spew out the same narrative without retort that they don't care about the little guy? Trump was able to appeal to the little guy this past election, but the margin was thin, and the Democrats are going to try to take back those working class voters by saying that Trump/GOP plans will be bad for them.

Why aren't the GOP on offense? They should be fighting that narrative. The tax proposal has a dismally low rating, and you know why? Because the average person doesn't know what's in it. The Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media have the talking points without rebuttal.

Trump is great with connecting with the voters. Trump should be going around the country, going to the key swing states and swing districts in particular, and giving rallies for the tax package. Go to areas you need in the upcoming election in 2018. Bring the Republican representative/Senator from the area with you (particularly if they are up for reelection). Go to areas that you want to flip from D to R (like in a Senate race). Promote it. It will be the same talking points at every rally, but that will drive them home. Rebuff the media lies too because the DNC will be putting out their usual talking points via their friends at the New York Times, The Washington Post, and NBC.

If not campaigning with Trump, the GOP congressmen and senators should be out there promoting it on Twitter, Facebook, interviews, etc.

The GOP and/or conservative groups should kick in money for ads to run online and on TV (particularly in swing states).

The bottom line is that there should be a full fledged promotional effort for this to show the American people what it is and how it will help them, countering the DNC/media narrative. Trump and the GOP should speak of little else until it's done.

The disturbing prospect I keep pondering, though, is perhaps they don't want to get anything done. Perhaps they don't want to get anything passed (not all of them as there are many good people up there). Perhaps the establishment types don't want to get anything passed. Then they will blame Trump for their failings and cede the majority. As we saw in the election, for some it wasn't about being the party in power - it was about being in the establishment in power. Anyone who doesn't think McCain, Flake, Corker, and others wouldn't be more at home in a Clinton Presidency, is crazy. They would be. So they lose the majority. The Democrats come in. They try to impeach Trump. The establishment GOP will feel vindicated. They will try again in a few years with another Romney or McCain, failing to realize it's over. We won't even bother.

1 posted on 11/26/2017 5:41:47 AM PST by Pinkbell
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To: Jim Noble

Ping as I mentioned you/your comment about the New Hampshire elections from a separate thread.


2 posted on 11/26/2017 5:42:25 AM PST by Pinkbell
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To: Pinkbell
The disturbing prospect I keep pondering, though, is perhaps they don't want to get anything done

That last paragraph says it all.

3 posted on 11/26/2017 5:47:39 AM PST by ducttape45 (Every Saint has a past, Every Sinner has a Future!)
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To: Pinkbell

And stocks in fainting couches just went up, lol.


4 posted on 11/26/2017 5:48:56 AM PST by OttawaFreeper ("If I had to go to war again, I'd bring lacrosse players" Conn Smythe)
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To: Pinkbell

The Dems will be fine until they have to replace those generic candidates with people that say crazy things!


5 posted on 11/26/2017 5:49:02 AM PST by aynrandfreak (Being a Democrat means never having to say you're sorry)
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To: Pinkbell

Nothing new, even if the GOPe had a super majority in both houses of congress they would be worried, because that is all they know how to do unfortunately. They sure fail when it comes to leadership.


6 posted on 11/26/2017 5:49:18 AM PST by Robert DeLong
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To: Pinkbell


7 posted on 11/26/2017 5:51:27 AM PST by Vlad The Inhaler (United We Stand - Divided We Fall. Remember: Diversity is the opposite of unity.)
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To: Robert DeLong

They waited 7 years, and Trump is literally willing to sign the proposals they campaigned on, and they can’t get it done.


8 posted on 11/26/2017 5:52:54 AM PST by Pinkbell
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To: Pinkbell

Why are they worry about it?
Not enough Dems winning?


9 posted on 11/26/2017 5:54:06 AM PST by Leep (Less talk more ACTiON!)
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To: Pinkbell

The Republican Congress had, and still has, an historic opportunity to push their the mandate they were sent to Washington DC to implement.

If they fail to do so, they can expect to get crushed in 2018. But time is getting short for Congress. Little point in going home to campaign in 2018, if they only have failure to report to their constituency.

Looking into my crystal ball, I can see President Trump pulling out of the GOP after a projected 2018 debacle, and running for reelection as an independent, giving the final coup de grace to the party


10 posted on 11/26/2017 5:56:35 AM PST by I_Like_Spam
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To: Pinkbell

There are some 3,144 counties or county equivalents in the USA. This is
where the actual voter data is kept such as registration, voter roles, etc.

The ultimate place to do this clean up is local. Now nationally the politicians
can encourage the locals but in truth the process is in the state/local arenas.


11 posted on 11/26/2017 5:56:43 AM PST by deport
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To: Pinkbell
Refresh my memory if you will, who was "Real Clear Politics" polling asserting would win the White House last year? And by what percentage-points?

One last quick question:

Why would anyone bother listening to them any longer? Like the rest of the "lead the farm animals by the rings in their noses" presstitute Mainstream Misledia, they are heretofore, herewith and hereinafter declared an unfit source for any and all polling data.

Thus it it written, thus it should be didden.

12 posted on 11/26/2017 5:57:06 AM PST by Gargantua (The wheel is spinnin' and it can't slow down... ;^)
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To: Pinkbell
Yes, the GOP has been unmasked as just a duplicitous arm of the Uniparty. Trump is far more of a threat to the establishment GOP than their brother exploiters, the Democrats.
13 posted on 11/26/2017 5:57:09 AM PST by Truth29
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To: Pinkbell

The GOP should worry about the voters to whom
they LIED, seizing them and tar and feathering them.


14 posted on 11/26/2017 5:57:11 AM PST by Diogenesis ("When a crime is unpunished, the world is unbalanced.")
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To: Robert DeLong

I suspect that even if there wasn’t an opposing party the current pubs couldn’t accomplish anything of note.


15 posted on 11/26/2017 5:57:49 AM PST by Leep (Less talk more ACTiON!)
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To: Pinkbell

The Republicans have gotten “nothing” done. And in the first years of Obama, they got, “Obamacare”, “Cash For Clunkers”, “Uranium One”, and so on. Compared to that Dem track record, sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand.


16 posted on 11/26/2017 5:58:09 AM PST by Bernard (If we could tax Stupid, Congress could balance the budget)
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To: Pinkbell

The last paragraph is spot on. They do not want to get anything done. They want Trump to go down and they will go down, too.

On the other hand, you would think voters are on to what thee Republicans are doing and vote them out.


17 posted on 11/26/2017 6:00:06 AM PST by hsmomx3
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To: Pinkbell

Both of the major parties are being destroyed by forces beyond their control.

What rises out of the ashes will be different, and if the GOP dies first, there will be a lot of suffering before the replacement appears.


18 posted on 11/26/2017 6:01:12 AM PST by Jim Noble (Single payer is coming. Which kind do you like)
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To: Pinkbell

Why aren’t the GOP on offense?


The GOP is not on offense because they prefer the progressive corportist agenda to the GOP base who voted for MAGA. The GOPe is far more inline with the Democrat party than POTUS. I never really believed the uniparty stuff until Trump but boy was I wrong. IT couldn’t be any more clear after seeing the tantrums of Flake, Corker, etc.


19 posted on 11/26/2017 6:01:40 AM PST by lodi90
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To: Pinkbell

“What we’ve seen so far this year that the constant is massive Trump unpopularity, a growing unpopularity, and we are starting to see that electorally. Knowing there’s never going to be a Donald Trump pivot in any sense, what would tell us that anything in this midterm is different?”

Read that section of the article a few times again. This gives you the authors slant. YOUR COMMENTS say what you think Trump should do. The original article infers the Trump IS the problem.

The fact is Republican voters still back the Trump agenda much more than they do the ability of Congress to enact, via bills, that agenda.


20 posted on 11/26/2017 6:06:21 AM PST by jdsteel (Give me freedom not more government)
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