There’s now quite good alignment between the FiveThirtyEight model and race ratings put out by @CookPolitical @InsideElections and @LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball. All point toward a modal range of D’s gaining like 28-42 seats. R majority still possible. Higher D gains also possible.
If you really want to dig in, I think we and Sabato are toward the higher end of that range, Inside Elections toward the lower end, Cook in the middle, but those are pretty small differences.
Our model (and other people’s models) also tends to show a longer and fatter D tail than the experts. We’d pretty happily bet on a D gain of 43+ seats **if given 3:1 odds**, for instance, and I’m not sure that they would. But, again, those are pretty minor disagreements.
There’s also pretty strong agreement among the various probabilistic forecasters on odds of a D House majority:
@ORACLE_of_Blair: 75%
@gelliottmorris: 79%
538 Lite / Classic / Deluxe: 80% / 87% / 85%
@TheEconomist: 86%
@YouGovUS: 89%
Optimus/@DecisionDeskHQ: 95%
My point is just—nobody is really going out on a limb. Or if we are, it’s the same limb. People working independently from one another, looking at the district-by-district map in rigorous ways, are coming up with pretty similar answers to one another, much more so than in 2016.
And in the Senate, there’s even more alignment, so much so that it’s barely even worth this tweet. All the models show GOP chances at about ~85%. There are some disagreements over IN and MO, but all agree Democrats have a tough (but not impossible) map.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059508049663139840
Posted for reference, I did not read this ZZZzzzzzz.
Just one problem, Mr. Odds Maker ... President Trump is not on the ballot.
As I predicted Months ago, few pollsters were willing to call any Senate races as flip GOP. They have so many Toss Ups or Dem gain. RCP with no Toss Ups gave GOP +1 Does tie go to GOP challengers?... er, um no!
Go GOP RedStorm!
Meanwhile, our “great” governor from the great state of Ohio, is talking about running in 2020 as an independent. “we will wait and see”. my guess is that he wants to see how voter turnout goes tomorrow. Trump owns Ohio! not a chance Johnny!
From his lips to God’s ears.
Can we please cut the bullsh*t here?
Let me slam you with the reality:
The GOP must win 85 PERCENT of 40 house seats. Got that EIGHTY FIVE PERCENT!
We already lost 3 seats in PA, due to redistricting alone!
I wish you dimwits would get real, and stop blowing smoke up your own asses!
That Pic of the president in Vegas with the Sierras in the background actually looks like the tidal wave he is bringing with him.
I’ve got my $10 on predict it! Looking forward to a couple dollars :)