Posted on 06/29/2019 10:21:01 AM PDT by OrangeHoof
As a benchmark, here are the three latest Democrat presidential polls for 2020 before the Clown Show Debates of Wednesday and Thursday as posted on Real Clear Politics. I make no distinction about their accuracy or methodology. These are just the results of the last three polls which do seem to be in general agreement. Biden is up 6+ points in each:
Economist/YouGov, June 26th:
Biden 25%
Warren 19%
Sanders 15%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 6%
O'Rourke 3%
Gabbard 3%
The rest 0-1%
Emerson, June 25th:
Biden 34%
Sanders 27%
Warren 14%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 6%
Booker 3%
The rest 0-1%
Politico/Morning Consult, June 25th:
Biden 38%
Sanders 19%
Warren 13%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6%
O'Rourke 4%
Booker 3%
Yang 2%
The rest 0-1%
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
First, anyone not at 3% or higher in at least two of the three polls can be dismissed as "unimportant". That leaves us with just seven candidates - Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, O'Rourke and Booker.
Of these, Biden, Sanders and Warren are always the top three. Anyone else would be considered a longshot for the nomination, topping out at 6-7%.
Any candidate who doesn't emerge from the post-debate polls with 10% or higher is toast. Observing that Harris and Buttigieg were consistently 6-7% in all three polls makes me trust those number whereas Sanders at 27% or Warren at 19% seems like an outlier.
Warren, seated at the "children's table" first debate, may have been by design so she is not on the same stage as Sanders. Sanders needed to attack Biden more than he apparently did as this was his chance to go toe-to-toe with Biden instead of prattling his patented schtick against corporations and touting government-run answers.
Will Biden lose ground? I think it is very likely with all the negative press. However, Sanders and Warren need to appeal to any disaffected Biden supporters rather than moving further left to scoop up support from the crazies.
If Harris or Buttigieg get a surge, will it be enough to get them above 10% and in the conversation? If not, we're already at a three-horse race.
Biden is fading. Harris the Prostitute is rising. Stay tuned!
They are all nuts. I think that is the takeaway. The Democratic candidates all acted as though there is no accountability or math. It kind of reminds me of the boom/bust mentality only there is no buffer to absorb the mistakes like there is when states do stupid things and there is a federal government and other states to help bail them out.
Who here thinks Hillary is going to Jump in at the last moment to Save America??
I think the Dem donors are going to pick a candidate who lacks a personal power base so that they can push them around if they get elected. It will then be up to the media to sell whoever this is as the brave choice of the newest and bestest generation... or some such schlock.
Oh my goodness. After the boycott by the people who failed to get out the African-American vote, presumably to be able to set the agenda this time... well, if there is a buck to be made, she might be up for it.
Harris is actually more plantation owner than African. She is decedent of two plantation owners and only one slave. But if you throw her mothers family in. She is 6 times more servant owner than slave. Her family had families of servants living on their property. Technically not slaves within the last 70 years. But no real difference. Harris’ skin color comes from India not Africa. Her father was much lighter skinned than her mother.
I have been saying that for a while now... but I don’t know if Hillary’s “perceived public record” is liberal enough for this bunch.
The striking thing about Harris’ appearance is she has no negroid features, unlike Obola who obviously has some of that ancestry.
Who here thinks Hillary is going to Jump in at the last moment to Save America??
***************************
Jump, Hillary, jump! ;-)
the real tell is gonna be when the constituent polls finally have updated results post-debate
my prediction is the three front-runners will still be in the lead positions, and that overall there’s not going to be many (maybe none) significant shifts ...
“I think the Dem donors are going to pick a candidate who lacks a personal power base so that they can push them around if they get elected.”
the big donors are going to line up for whomever they think has the best shot of beating Trump. period. Many are still livid that their donated billions were wasted by that loser Hillary ...
Yes, but why are they so mad at him at a time when the stock market is trading at new highs and the economy is strong? They are making money hand over fist.
Objectively speaking, what have they got to complain about? Unless the thing to complain about involves stuff they don’t want to talk about, because what they are complaining about (migrant deaths reroute to the U.S., children in cages, etc.) is nothing that didn’t originate in earlier administrations when these allegedly grief-stricken donors raised nary a peep of complaint. What has changed during the Trump administration is that millions of registered voters who were trapped in poverty now have the option to work their way out of financial ruin.
I tend to agree with you unless there is some “seismic shift” moment.
The Wookiee will jump in while on vacation and campaign but never leave vacation ,LOL
I believe she will jump in.
You mean, "Horizontal Harris"?
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