Erie County hardly even counts for anything in Pennsylvania elections. I have a hard time seeing why its a bellwether for Trump.
Turnout is everything.
I saw a detailed study once that said ALL elections are decided by GOP turnout.
It said that Democrat turnout is nearly a constant. So the winner depends on if more or less GOP voters turn up at the polls.
So Erie PA could be a bellwether because it has a high population of registers GOP, and if they all show up then the GOP will win.
Erie is loaded with ethnic Democrat voters with strong religious backgrounds -—Roman Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Russian Orthodox, etc.
They are not crazy about radical socialism and the accompanying attacks on traditional values.
Erie County will be a good indicator of just how far left the Dems can go without hemorrhaging votes.