These are Global Numbers, Mainland China and All Other
Reporting Nations
80,994 declared cases
02,760 declared deceased
30,000 declared recovered
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered = 8.42%.
That is a fluid number that is now dropping at the rate of about 0.60% per day.
32,270 cases have been decleared resolved, and that represents 40.447%
of all declared cases to date. (resolved = deceased or recovered)
As of this post, the active cases have dropped by 1,533 cases today.
This has been taking place for nearly a week, and the drop has been growing.
It may not continue, if cases outside China mushroom. There are now 48,234
active cases. That is 10,575 cases fewer than the highest count of active
cases at 15:13 PST on 02/17/2020. That figure was 58,809.
These numbers address only the cases outside of Mainland China.
At this point only 3.62% of all declared cases exist outside Mainland China.
2,930 declared cases
0,045 declared deceased
0,253 declared recovered
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered is 15.10%.
That figure is grossly high, and should not be used for purposes of
extrapolating what lies ahead. It takes several weeks for people to be
infected, and recover. As in the large body of cases above, this mortality rate
is declining, and will pick up speed at the two week mark of our largest
outside China declared infections.
298 cases have been declared resolved, and that represents 10.17% of the
cases declared outside of Mainland China.
There are now 2,632 active cases outside of China.
The number of declared cases has grown by 17.67% today or 440 cases.
There are now 43 nations that have declard casea at one point in time.
The Ivory Coast showed up on my first report with 1 case, which has not
been documented again since. It may have been in error. Outside of that,
there are 42 nations still reporting.
Outside of China, it is killing 80 year olds.
I don’t want ANY 80 year olds to die from it, but in the end it will kill way less people than “medicare for all”.
Good analysis of the given numbers.
Strange math you have there...not all of the “currently sick” will die, so I think your 15% “mortality rate” # is way off. I prefer deceased / # of cases so you can compare it to past U.S. flu seasons....for example...the 2017-2018 U.S. flu season had roughly 44.8 million sick with flu with 61,099 deaths for a “back of the napkin” “mortality rate” of 0.14%. So for Western countries (I am taking out China & Iran #’s due to possibly “way off” numbers), we have 2805 cases of COVID-19 with 29 fatalities for a “mortality rate” of about 1.03%. (7.4 x higher than the regular flu). This is way early in the pandemic so these %’s are subject to a large change. For Australia they have had 22 cases with 18 recovered and 4 still sick for a mortality rate of zero so far. (Small sample size). Without accurate “# of people who got it” and “# of deaths” numbers, any “mortality rate” calculations are kinda bogus...how many people in China (3.5 billion of them) got coronavirus and stayed home (not counted) how many of those died? How many recovered? Too much margin for error.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Thank you.