Posted on 03/20/2020 8:58:16 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The coronavirus pandemic is a situation to be taken seriously, but is it possible that panic we’re seeing unfold right now is not necessary? Some experts say it is.
Richard A. Epstein, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, offered some perspective on the pandemic, suggesting that while everyone seems to react to bad news from Italy, some good news is being overlooked. “Overlooked is the good news coming out of China, where the latest report shows 16 new cases and 14 new deaths, suggesting that the number of deaths in the currently unresolved group will be lower than the 5.3 percent conversion rate in the cases resolved to date. In my view, we will see a similar decline in Italy,” he says.
From this available data, it seems more probable than not that the total number of cases world-wide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000 (up about eightfold). In the United States, if the total death toll increases at about the same rate, the current 67 deaths should translate into about 500 deaths at the end. Of course, every life lost is a tragedy—and the potential loss of 50,000 lives world-wide would be appalling—but those deaths stemming from the coronavirus are not more tragic than others, so that the same social calculus applies here that should apply in other cases.
Epstein argues that based on the available data, he believes that “the current dire models radically overestimate the ultimate death toll.” He gives three reasons for this:
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Ya think?
EPSTEIN’s REASON FOR WHY WE OVERESTIMATE THE PANDEMIC’s THREAT:
First, they underestimate the rate of adaptive responses, which should slow down the replication rate.
Second, the models seem to assume that the vulnerability of infection for the older population—from 70 upward—gives some clue as to the rate of spread over the general population, when it does not.
Third, the models rest on a tacit but questionable assumption that the strength of the virus will remain constant throughout this period, when in fact its potency should be expected to decline over time, in part because of temperature increases.
3 months of shutdown is causing the numbers in China...plus they haven't lifted that many restrictions as of yet.
I’m no ‘expert’ but I play one on FR, and I SAY WE ARE!.................
Duh.
The Chinese are lying like a rug. In the past few days are many reports of new cases in Wuhan being leaked to the outside world by citizens. Anyone who believes the Chinese numbers is a schmuck.
The expert is a law professor. His premise is absence of evidence = evidence of absense and anti-precautionary.
In risk *innocent until proven guilty* means “only put your seatbelt AFTER the accident”.
But “out of an abundance of caution” we’ll just tank the world economy, go into massive debt, and probably cause double the deaths through collateral causes like lost income, overloaded “essential” businesses running out of supplies, and who knows what other unforeseen effects.
But we’re cautious. Right.
And Gavin Newsom only does things out of the goodness of his black little heart.
The Chinese government needs to be destroyed and China's people freed. Communism/Socialism is so evil...
Yep. That is my response, word for word. :D
I don’t trust China.
Richard A. Epstein didn’t kill himself.
I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night, rock-solid credentials. . . I say we are, too!!!!!!
When everyone analyses this, say 3 years from now, what will the consensus be?
Gee, Ya think?
The good news is the result of drastic actions taken to bring a halt to the bad news. It’s cause and effect.
Captain Obvious has been promoted to Fleet Admiral Obvious.
Overreacting? Really? I hadn’t noticed.
This is the story of the little boy who rang a bell in the city center.
When asked why, he said to keep away the elephants.
When told there are no elephants, he said, “See? It works!”
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