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Maybe there’s a reason why dire projections about COVID-19 have been wrong
American Thinker ^ | 04/10/2020 | Andrea Widburg

Posted on 04/10/2020 8:07:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

COVID-19 has proven to be a brutal flu for those unlucky enough to get it. Any new disease that’s successfully left animals behind for human-to-human transmission is highly risky. Nevertheless, current insanity gripping the world is based upon highly dubious computer models, making those models as dangerous as a virus.

On March 8, MSNBC’s Chris Hayes attacked Trump for trying to manipulate downwards the expert projections about COVID-19 deaths. One month later, Hayes was back, attacking Trump for intentionally manipulating the numbers upwards:

The most cynical interpretation of all this, one I can't quite bring myself to accept, is they rolled out the model showing 100k deaths after they knew it would be less than that so they could anchor everyone to that # and take a vicotry lap when "only" tens of thousands died. https://t.co/hYiUCHhO5g— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) April 8, 2020

Hayes is an unprincipled moron who will say anything to hurt Trump but his monomania highlights how very wrong the original high-death predictions have proven to be. The Washington Post’s Philip Bump tried to explain away one set of wildly inflated predictions by saying that the experts’ were accurate but that later behavioral changes caused lower numbers:

A notable shift downward in projected deaths from coronavirus is already being spun as "experts were wrong!!" instead of "hey, the thing experts said would drive down deaths might be driving down deaths."https://t.co/HpUPAyc5tx pic.twitter.com/XLPD39dQfF— Philip Bump (@pbump) April 9, 2020

The problem is that the model Bump looks to assumed 100% social distancing, which hasn’t happened:

The IHME models assumed “full social distancing,” including school closures, business shutdowns, and stay-at-home lockdowns from the beginning.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: covid19; model; projections
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1 posted on 04/10/2020 8:07:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

There is no disaster or crisis the media will not lie about to manipulate a narrative to their ends.


2 posted on 04/10/2020 8:10:15 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: SeekAndFind

They all saw some trend-line for NY City and assumed it’d be that way across the US. Trend halted at NY, and maybe New Orleans.


3 posted on 04/10/2020 8:11:59 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: Republican Wildcat

Our domestic enemies have a tough challenge revising their doom and gloom downwards while continuing to blame Trump for causing the Chinese virus.


4 posted on 04/10/2020 8:12:11 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs
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To: SeekAndFind

Someone wrote in to our local newspaper’s op-ed page. He said, the “dire” prediction for Nebraska’s Covid-19 fatalities at worst-case outlook is 442.

Then he added, that is about 10 days’ of normal death frequency for the state. I looked up, and yes, the death rate for the whole state, for all reasons, is about 44 per day.

Other than the exceptionally “hot spots”, I am curious as to whether the overall death rates are being impacted very much.


5 posted on 04/10/2020 8:13:07 AM PDT by NEMDF
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To: SeekAndFind

Get ready for it. ANY good news is because of “social distancing”. ANY bad news is because of Trump, or because we’re not “social distancing” hard enough, so we need to take away even more rights from the people.


6 posted on 04/10/2020 8:13:18 AM PDT by CaliGangsta
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To: SeekAndFind

The American people don’t trust most of our institutions anymore. And the medical community is next.these death numbers aren’t just CoVid, it must be a catch all number


7 posted on 04/10/2020 8:13:27 AM PDT by cnsmom
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To: Republican Wildcat

In my country, there have been 18 deaths per million people.

There is no crisis but the economic one being created.


8 posted on 04/10/2020 8:13:51 AM PDT by cuban leaf (The political war playing out in every country now: Globalists vs Nationalists)
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To: SeekAndFind

Reason: Mitigation efforts


9 posted on 04/10/2020 8:14:00 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: SeekAndFind

Simplest and probably most correct response is that all models involve a number of assumptions/simplifications/etc. Added to that, some of the coefficients used to weigh various math factors are often observations or guesses.

As a result, most models are way off. Examples? Try the climate change gang’s laughable outputs.

Same for the Wu Flu models.


10 posted on 04/10/2020 8:14:11 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: SeekAndFind

Maybe there’s a reason why dire projections about COVID-19 have been wrong>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

One of the reasons is called Hydroxy-chloroiquin, which does not exist as a factor for the lefty , plutocrat modellers like Birx and Fauci.

There has been a huge usage by physicians which has not been tracked , because BIG PHARM does not want it to be tracked.

********************************

End the pandemic with cheap, available meds:

************************************

Put every citizen in the USA on Hydroxy-chloroquin prophylaxis dosage. ( 1 x 200 mg HCQ/day, 1 x 220 mg Zinc sulphate or other Zinc vitamin/day)Reopen our Country.

Do NOT listen to big pharm and Plutocrats like Fauci and Birx.

Do not let the Alinskyites win.

***************************************

RE-OPEN THE COUNTRY
USE the HCQ

The Zelenko Protocol:

Dr Zelenko has perfected a therapy in the United States which has three components proven to work, every time, if administered before the lungs fill with mucus.

What is being used is a combination of drugs , not just Hydroxy-chloroquin, which shows that the Democrats and Big Pharm do not want what is working should be understood by the People.They rail against a single part of the therapy without revealing the rest of it because IT WORKS.But it has to be administered before the lungs fill with mucus.

But what President Trump’s agent, Rudy Giuliani has done is created a populist end run around the CDC ( Fauci) and the FDA. This to save lives.( See video link below)

If you are a Trump supporter you know what to do. Contact your physician and ask whether this therapy can be available if you need it. If not shop around. And if you find a Jewish doctor, you’re in like Flynn.The therapy cost of the drugs is $20.00, so it won’t break you.

Its really up to you.

President Trump has arranged for millions of dosages to come into our country from Israel’s Teva Corporation....Free. Availability will be no problem.

Secondly there is a pretty sure possibility that hydroxy-chloroquine acts as an prophylaxis, taking 1 x 200 mg HCQ per day along with a 200 mg Zinc supplement.Almost all of the front line doctors in NYC are doing this, so why not everybody. We soon will have enough HCQ to do that.

****************************

THIS CAN SAVE YOUR LIFE

EXCELLENT NEWS: Hydroxychloroquine Treatment Effective on 699 Patients

Must see video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TJdjhd_XG8&t=586s

*****************************

Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko

Board Certified Family Practitioner

501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950

845-238-0000

March 23, 2020

To all medical professionals around the world:

My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.

As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).

Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:

1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.

2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.

3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).

My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:

1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days

2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days

3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days

The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.

Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.

Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.

In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.

With much respect,

Dr. Zev Zelenko

*********************


11 posted on 04/10/2020 8:14:34 AM PDT by Candor7 ((Obama Fascism)http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2009/05/barack_obam_the_quintessentia_1.html))
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To: CaliGangsta

Yup - Social Distancing & Schools closed

Anyone want to venture a guess as to how test scores go over the next 3-5 years as kids recover from a school year that accomplished nothing?


12 posted on 04/10/2020 8:16:13 AM PDT by Jimmy The Snake (Remeber)
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To: SeekAndFind

Maybe a series of commercials showing clips naming these liberal/socialist pundits saying one thing and then saying the opposite in order to damage President Trump. The caption on the screen should be “Who listens to these so-called journalists?”


13 posted on 04/10/2020 8:16:15 AM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, Democrats believe every day is April 15th.for corruptiion)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hey, those models were based on the best climate modeling applied to viral propagation... The supercomputers churned mightily to give us the best guess as to how the virus would spread just like it does all the time for global climate change!


14 posted on 04/10/2020 8:16:25 AM PDT by kingu (Everything starts with slashing the size and scope of the federal government.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The truth is that I have socially distanced for the most part since about the middle of March. I’m not alone. My family and most of my acquaitances have as well.

If the distancing has been implemented across the board for the most part, we were told that it would bring the number of deaths down. That has happened. The projections have improved.

We could model the upcoming election in Nov 2020. We could model it with active Trump supporters dramatically increasing the Trump vote by going door-to-door registering new Trump supporters to vote.

If that work does get done, and the number of Trump voters surges, is it fair for the workers to take some credit?

If that work does not get done, and the number of Trump voters doesn’t increase, then can we blame a failed registration campaign?


15 posted on 04/10/2020 8:17:09 AM PDT by xzins (Retired US Army chaplain. Support our troops by praying for their victory.)
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To: CaliGangsta

Yes, we’ve flattened the curve and saved humanity! As far as the economy, good luck with that.


16 posted on 04/10/2020 8:17:16 AM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: SeekAndFind

There isn’t even a clear and universal definition of a China Virus “death”.


17 posted on 04/10/2020 8:18:45 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The dire predictions about COVID-19 have been wrong because they weren’t intended to be right.

They were intended to just be dire predictions.

18 posted on 04/10/2020 8:20:09 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And somewhere in the darkness ... the gambler, he broke even.")
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To: DannyTN

No one is going to believe you, but you’re right.


19 posted on 04/10/2020 8:20:29 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: cnsmom

Exactly, and the dramatic/hyped social media posts about over loaded hospitals, lack of PPE and ventilators, etc., etc., only increases the mistrust people will have going forward. Hats off to medical professionals for being there and being prepared, however, with the exception of only a few places, it’s been a way overblown, and a fairly obvious attempt to overstate the importance of public health for the intention of receiving funding (never let a crisis go to waste). If anything, hospitals will be hurt in the long run because they enacted their surge plans, cleaned out the facilities non-serious cases and cancelled elective procedures...all leading to a decrease in revenue and people’s hours being cut.


20 posted on 04/10/2020 8:20:51 AM PDT by ripnbang ("An armed man is a citizen, an unarmed man, a subject.")
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