Posted on 04/13/2020 6:57:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Good news on a national basis, but this offer may be void where numbers are looking more prohibitive. “We are nearing the peak now,” CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield told Savannah Guthrie on NBC’s Today, as the country progresses through its planned 45 day effort to “flatten the curve.” Redfield warns that the only way to know the peak is to see it in the rear-view mirror, but the numbers are “stabilizing” — nationally, anyway.
The question isn’t just when we reopen, Redfield warns, but also where:
“We are nearing the peak right now.” Watch @CDCDirector’s full interview with @savannahguthrie about if he thinks we’ve hit the peak of the coronavirus yet, when the country could start reopening and much more. pic.twitter.com/hZdWDKSbSb
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) April 13, 2020
Redfield says what Anthony Fauci and Jerome Adams have been saying all along, which is that we will need both virus and antibody testing before widely reopening public squares. The former will be needed to identify acute infections before they become cases necessary for hospitalization; the latter will be needed to ensure that contagion doesn’t spread asymptomatically. The timeline makes that point very clearly, as Redfield notes. The CDC didn’t see the first US cases of community transmission until February 28th, which is when they first pushed for social-distancing mitigation in those hot spots. By that time, however, community transmission had already begun to explode exponentially.
That pattern matters to the plan for America’s grand re-opening, because we are a nation of vastly distant communities. An eruption in any of them will quickly spread, restarting the exponential cycle all over again. And while the news is getting better from New York and New Jersey, some other communities are just now starting to see increases in infection rates — such as right here in Minnesota, which saw its largest number of new cases in a day yesterday:
Minnesota reported more than 100 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday, the first triple-digit daily increase since the novel coronavirus appeared in the state just over a month ago.
While Minnesota has thus far avoided the grim toll in hot spots around the country, the numbers continue to grow here. Six newly reported deaths brought the total to 70, about two-thirds of them people in congregate care settings. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals increased to a new high of 157, including 74 in intensive care.
A total of 1,621 cases of the viral illness have been confirmed by tests in Minnesota. The actual number of cases is believed to be much higher, but that statistic is unknowable because there isn’t enough testing to reach a reliable estimate.
This is the downside to flattening an exponential curve. It lowers the peak but lengthens the curve. This phenomenon was part of the original calculations, of course; the idea of flattening the curve was to gain time to build health-care resources and to develop tests and treatments, if not vaccines. In that we have succeeded, but Minnesota is now becoming a bigger threat for seeding more outbreaks — slightly, anyway.
As Redfield says, the re-opening won’t necessarily be grand, and some will have to wait their turns. More likely, we will see reopening of some activities across the board in the first week of May, but especially in places like Minnesota, on a very limited basis until case numbers drop and reliable testing gets put in place. If not, we might be looking in our rear-view mirrors so long that we run smack into the next apex.
Excellent news!
Who knew sitting home on your couch would save civilization? /sarcasm
I hope Trump shifts his presser to be less focused on the virus and more on restarting the economy.
Getting off our couch in the next few weeks is also needed to save the country.
They have no idea. This could change tomorrow. I’m sick of being sold a bill of goods by people that don’t know, or have an agenda.
According to worldometer we are already past the peak.
Isn't it really the CDC's job to have a viable plan to roll out high volume testing practically overnight?
Now the CDC is complaining that somebody hasn't done enough testing?
If we are going to reopen on May 1, the administration better begin messaging a plan. That’s only a couple of weeeks away.
Sorry, but the peak was last week.
“Who knew sitting home on your couch would save civilization? /sarcasm”
The only thing that I’m absolutely sure we have accomplished is to shine a bright light on how easy it is to manipulate the American public, and strip their rights. The political class has taken note, and is delighted.
"Redfield says what Anthony Fauci and Jerome Adams have been saying all along,
which is that we will need both virus and antibody testing before widely reopening public squares.
The former will be needed to identify acute infections before they become cases necessary for hospitalization;
the latter will be needed to ensure that contagion doesn’t spread asymptomatically."
BUT just happens to have led UNPUNISHED FRAUD.
We already hit the peak several days ago. The highest date for daily new cases was April 4. The highest number of deaths daily occurred on April 10.
Just puzzling.
In before the flubros imply that it would have peaked without the lockdowns, and that we wrecked the economy for nothing.
read: rather than apologizing for being chicken little we will take credit for the far less than predicted calamity and use that to only very slowly allow our boot off you neck or we will telegraph another calamity that will never happen
My worry is re-opening everything will cause another breakout.
This is not over yet. The virus is not cured, just slowed down.
My worry is re-opening everything will cause another breakout.
This is not over yet. The virus is not cured, just slowed down.
Not puzzling at all.
HIV was never much a threat to anyone who didn’t need blood transfusions, or who wasn’t engaged in sodomy.
Okay, it’s a little puzzling. They should have quarantined those that had it. But they didn’t.
I think the global shutdown and widespread isolation is overdone,
county by county rules, based on
rolling average over 14days new #cases/100,000 would be better
low incidence (low mobility/rural) should be handled very differently
than high incidence (high mobility/city)
just as WVa has low case load burden,
and New York has high case load burden.
The one size fits all approach unnecessarily impacts low risk populations,
and are insufficient for severely effected areas
The peak is here...this is bald faced game playing
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