Posted on 04/14/2020 3:23:32 AM PDT by Aloysius88
"Look. I'm just going to put this out there. I've been modeling coronavirus from Worldometer's numbers. Right now I have less than 1.6 mil cases and less than 90k deaths on May 1."
That was my model on April 7. Today's model has the US at 1 mil cases and 50k deaths based on Worldometer's numbers at May 1. US peak new cases was April 4th and new deaths peak was April 10th. Michigan new cases peaked April 3rd.It is time to go back to work before we totally wreck the machine that feeds us. Nobody's model predicted these numbers and if they had we would not have freaked out like we did. C'mon man.
I am not going to debate social distancing. Some nations and states did it well and some nations and states did it less enthusiastically and the inexorable progression of the numbers remains. The numbers go up and they flatten. Italy, Germany and Spain follow the same curve. The total deaths is ridiculously low when you look at average weekly deaths for any year you want to name.
Of course fewer people die when you wrap the nation in bubble wrap. I went to work every day for 40 years and every day was a crap shoot on the expressway and in the shop. People die every day. About 60K every week in your average January. February and March. Some of those who escaped death today die tomorrow. Get over it. Trust Jesus and go about your lives.
Brilliant. Concise. Fact based. None of the Karens will listen to you.
Unlike the initial models that were used to scare Trump into the shutdown yours looks quite plausible.
I also think there’s a strong possibility that this is a bio weapon. Leaders know it but are hesitant to share for fear of totally freaking out citizens. It’s the only explanation for the entire world shutting down.
I don’t buy that. It would be a really lousy bioweapon. It looks like the actual mortality rate (based on an estimate of all cases, not just confirmed cases) will come out at under 1%. A good bioweapon also gets people sick. 80% of Coronavirus infections produce no symptoms or mild symptoms.
What I do buy is that it got released from the virus lab in Wuhan, probably accidentally, and did not arise from a bat to human transfer.
What ever software application you are using is every bit as reliable at predicting the future as the ones that are being touted by today's experts, which is to say, it is another SWAG.
Yo, Travis, where are your hockey stick graphs that predict 2.2 million future deaths.
Please, don't pretend that you were not a future's doom and gloomer, like you have been trying to do with some posts.
In another 6 days it will be two weeks, and you will really go 'dark' on FR.
Are you 'scrubbing' past posts? You sure have gone quiet, almost silent.
I can get a rough estimate using the FWHM (full width at half-maximum) on the bar graphs. Your numbers are plausible.
‘It would be a really lousy bioweapon.’
good point...
Stories that Chinese factories are shutting down again because worldwide depression means no one is buying their stuff.
If it is a bioweapon they just shot themselves in the foot with it.
Or, conversely, a very clever bio-weapon that is designed to wound, not kill, cause economic damage without overt mass casualties, not destroy a people, but render them less capable of offering resistance to Chinese global aims.
That being said, we know that Chinese scientists tinkered with corona viruses in the Wuhan lab. They added genes to produce viruses not found in nature. The current pandemic may very well be caused by such a manufactured virus.
The only question in my mind is whether the virus was released by accident or deliberately.
Pretty much everything is still open in my country, Public Services, Banks, food stores, drug stores, gas stations, home improvement stores, most sit down restaurants are doing take out, of course all Fast Food joints are doing take out.
People are working in all those places - and many people are visiting them.
About the only places that are closed are schools and manufacturing.
Social distancing is hit or miss around here - but people are polite and everybody is making due.
Scored a 9 roll pack of TP yesterday.
Stump your toe, go to the ER.
Sneeze, quarantine the city you live in.
Vaccinate everyone with RFID device and tell them itis for the good of the sheople.
I choose not to conform to the new norms. I will continue to shake a persons hand.
There is a lot we don’t know long term...such as the reinfection rate, immunity and whether the virus could leave people open to an entire host of deadly issues. You can’t base a model on the reported death rate to date. I am personally not going back to work without a mask and hopefully better testing.
None of those things could be modeled in the early hockey stick graphs either.
We really should not deconstruct our entire culture over a 100-year event.
” It would be a really lousy bioweapon.”
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Not if the intent was to bring the world to its financial knees.
Not if it was a test that still had plausible deniability.
The authors of this virus can now throw the world into a panic every flu season at their whim.
Seems like a very effective bioweapon to me.
The standalone CV stats are worthless because the CDC by their own design has artificially inflated the deaths statistics to count all related deaths as CV, as long as CV was present.
It’s been an excellent proof of concept. Tweak the parameters and let one go, say, in early October, and you can control the election.
What’s a few hundred thousand dead Chinese if they can control the world?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.