Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks

CNBC ^ | 04/23/2020 | Holly Ellyatt

[SeekAndFind]

Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.

But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.

“In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation is stable,” Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Herd immunity among a population, usually achieved through vaccination, is reached when around 60% of citizens are deemed immune. Without a vaccine for the coronavirus, however, scientists are looking at whether exposure to and recovery from Covid-19 leads to long-term immunity. Reinfections of coronavirus have been reported.

[aquila48]

“When I get some time I would like to learn how SARS and MERS went by the wayside.”

Well, get on it!

What else have you got to do? :)

[Buckeye McFrog]

What has S. Korea done to account for the nearly immediate and sustained flattening of the outbreak in that country?

A bunch of stuff that no American would ever sit still for.

[21twelve]

I just pulled an all nighter getting a report out. I procrastinated thinking they weren’t going to need it for awhile with everything shut down.

I was emailing with my cousin that was a nurse, then professor. She found out I had a few N95 masks so I sent her a couple. She said she was very leery of the homemade masks, “Knowing what we had to use when dealing with MERS and TB patients.”

[heartwood]

I see that “sampling and modeling data” indicate that 20% of Stockholm’s population has been exposed. The spokesman claims immunity, but exposure is the more accurate claim at this point.

This is the first mention I have seen of sampling. Do they mean antibody sampling, and how much is sampling and how much is modeling?

[Empire_of_Liberty]

Sweden took the right approach, many instinctively knew it but it was never going to happen here with a Republican President facing re-election.

---

I am not sure about a “right approach”. Sweden is almost in no way comparable to the US. The timing was different, too, and Sweden had more and later information to work with.

I want to see if I understand the 2nd half of your comment as something I agree with completely:

Donald J Trump would have been a 1-term President, if even allowed to complete his term, if he had come out with “America’s economy is the BEST, and we’re not going to change anything!”. This would have been as the death toll rose exponentially to levels not seen since 1918.

There’s no great answer to a biological attack, as we are discovering. But, to let the death toll rise (even only the at-risk and elderly) without action is to be ushered unceremoniously from the stage.

We would still face this crisis, and with the kind of person in charge who never let’s them go to waste.

[heartwood]

People practice veterinary medicine too.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

I find it interesting that there really isn't that much difference in the trajectory of cases between Sweden, Italy and the United States, despite the huge differences in rates of infection and approach to dealing with the pandemic. (yes, I know that is a log-normal chart). This is from "Our World In Data."

[ProtectOurFreedom]

“You either develop an immunity to it or it kills you.”

I’d wager there is a third case: you get mildly sick, don’t develop immunity to it, and get it every couple of years. IOW, a lot like the common cold (coronavirus causes about 20% of colds).

[Empire_of_Liberty]

Anybody else bothered by the term “herd (an animal term) immunity”? It seems every day we are being treated more and more like animals.....

---

I understand what you are saying, and bristle at the use, myself.

I would like to point out, though, how it can be descriptive, however, and therefore of some merit.

The term “herd immunity” should be recognized to describe a very specific and narrow aspect of “immunity”, or protection from disease. It only applies to the very simplistic “herd” model of human interaction. In that sense, it can be abused like we have seen many models become when they are inappropriately applied.

So, it might sound insulting, but it also emphasizes the limitations of trying to use it to apply to humans, as in very many instances we do not behave at all like “herds”.

[brookwood]

Closest countries to Sweden, and their fatality rates
Sweden 200
Denmark 68
Germany 64
Norway 35
Finland 31
I’m not a fan of lockdowns, but I am happy that the non-lockdown experiment is being done somewhere very far away.

[Arones]

Meaningless without using population of each country.

[blackberry1]

Remove NYC from the US numbers and what happens?

The NY Gove and NTC Mayon botched it......plain and simple and the whole country suffers because of their stupidity...

[blackberry1]

Remove NYC from the US numbers and what happens?

The NY Govand NYC Mayorbotched it......plain and simple and the whole country suffers because of their stupidity...

[aquila48]

“I’d wager there is a third case: you get mildly sick, don’t develop immunity to it, and get it every couple of years. IOW, a lot like the common cold (coronavirus causes about 20% of colds).”

I see that as a type of immunity in the sense that the body by some mechanism or other is able to defeat it, or else you would be constantly sick with it if it’s a stalemate.

As for a certain number of people getting sick with cold every year, that might be due to the cold virus mutating.

It’s a constant battle, kinda like the Israelis vs the Palestinians/arabs or BDS.

[shanover]

My one theory is that some probably had this idea from the beginning in America and advisors said it would be political suicide to lock down a demographic by age especially in a election year. The campaign lies would write themselves.

[1Old Pro]

protect the vulnerable, quarantine the very vulnerable, allow low risk to mingle with masks and gloves, let all others rip.

[Captain Rhino]

From an analytical viewpoint, the South Korean line on the graft is way too flat not to be suspicious.

This is a cumulative day by day plot. The essentially flat slope of the line says that almost no additional cases have been reported in South Korea since the line leveled off. Given the rates of asymptomatic and very moderate symptoms being reported for COVID-19 (about 80% between the two), the aggressive testing and active tracing of contacts by South Korean public health authorities should be uncovering and incorporating those cases.

For comparison, look at the line for South Korea’s neighbor, Japan. Japan has COVID-19 case rates and a total number of cases comparable to the state of Virginia. This is a remarkable accomplishment since the population of Japan is approximately 14 times the size of Virginia. Yet, its line on the graph is climbing because new cases, even though small in absolute numbers, are still occurring and are being added to the total as they are reported.

I am NOT claiming that South Korea is deliberately misreporting or anything similar. There has to be some sort of anomaly in the reporting methodology that is generating that flat line. It is simply not creditable, with one caveat. That caveat is that the level line is generated by the results of 100% of the population being tested for the virus and the borders are closed. If that is the case, I stand corrected.

[JesusIsLord]

From an analytical viewpoint, the South Korean line on the graft is way too flat not to be suspicious.

Thanks for your insight.

[Black Agnes]

If the at risk have been protected, who exactly is dying in Sweden?

[Swirl]

my post from a couple of days ago:

A comparison between Sweden (open) and a locked-down US state of similar population, Virginia (Tuesday’s Cov-19 data)

Sweden
Population: 10.2 million
confirmed cases 15,322
deaths 1,765
deaths per 1M pop 175

Virginia
Population: 8.6 million
confirmed cases 9,630
deaths 324
deaths per 1M pop 39

considerably more people are dying in Sweden even when normalized by population