Posted on 05/15/2020 5:57:16 AM PDT by marktwain
In a March 15, 2020 article about a bear encounter by Caroline Wellbery, a bear biologist makes a hyperbolic claim. It is not unusual for people to make hyperbolic claims about bears, which are not founded in facts or data. It is irresponsible for experts in the field to do so. From the washingtonpost.com:
There is a bigger chance of getting hit twice by lightning, Craighead says, than being mauled by a bear.
As with any statistical assessment, it depends on a number of assumptions. If you are talking about the United States as a whole, Craighead's claim is false.
Over the last decade, the number of people killed by lightning per year, according to weather.gov, has been 26. The number of people struck by lightning is about 10 times that number, or about 260 a year, or about 1 out of 1.27 million in a year. The number struck by lightning has been falling. The expected lifespan in the United States is about 79 years.
Assuming that each person has half of their life to live after the first strike, at any one time, there are about 79/2 x 260 people who have been struck by lightning once, or 10,270 living in the United States. Each of those, in a given year, has a chance of being struck by lightning again. Because the odds are so small, they are, essentially, additive, so, for a given year, they are very close to 10,270/1.27 million, or .008 per year, or about 1 person every 123 years.
(Excerpt) Read more at ammoland.com ...
“... or about 1 person every 123 years.”
In truth, there are actually data on this. Several years ago, I looked this up, and there were 7 people in the US who had been hit twice by lightening and survived.
I looked it up in reference to comparing the odds of winning the Powerball vs getting hit by lightening twice. The twice-struck odds were almost 10 times greater than buying the winning Powerball ticket.
Those who are struck are in a pool of people who are much more likely to be struck.
Just as those who are mauled by a bear are in a pool of people much more likely to be mauled by a bear.
The article says comparing bear attacks to lightning strikes is silly, just propaganda.
I looked it up in reference to comparing the odds of winning the Powerball vs getting hit by lightening twice. The twice-struck odds were almost 10 times greater than buying the winning Powerball ticket.
I think you mean the odds of getting struck twice are 10 times less likely, but the syntax is unclear.
I found a conversion kit for Tiger repellent stones. You can easily convert them into lightning strike stones.
Yes. Whatever you said is what I meant. Posting In the morning with less than a cup of coffee is something I should avoid.
If I remember correctly, about 3-4 of them were fishermen in Florida.
I’d have a better chance of getting hit by lightning twice than hitting a bear sitting in the middle of the fairway with my driver.........He’s safer there than in the woods.
Great joke thanks to Lee Trevino
and they work. I have been carrying them for years.
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