What do the colors mean?
Posted on 05/29/2020 6:18:34 AM PDT by lightman
If you’re looking for the next batch of Pennsylvania counties to move to green, or the last stage of the Wolf Administration’s coronavirus pandemic reopening plan, we suggest you look north and west.
That is, after all, where the 20 counties that have been in the yellow phase for at least two weeks are. State Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine has said in the past that how counties in the yellow phase continue to fare over a 14-day period against the metrics used to move them there from the state’s red phase in the first place is a key barometer for continued advancement.
Other things taken into consideration include how much out-of-region commuting workers do, ICU capacity, the percentage of the workforce in jobs in the “physically closed” employment category, population density, and the percentage of the population that is over age 60. The availability of coronavirus testing and contact tracing capabilities are also important factors.
Gov. Tom Wolf said earlier this week that he expected to move more counties into the green phase, effective June 5.
On case data alone, you’ve got to think large areas of the state’s southwestern corner will go green. While not a full reopening, green permits the reopening of restaurant dining rooms, youth sports, public gatherings of up to 250 and gets you one step closer to post-pandemic life, whatever that will mean.
Of the 13 counties in that region that moved to yellow on May 15, all have maintained new case incidence rates of 27.5 or less per 100,000 residents over the last two weeks, and the only two counties with case rates higher than 20 on that metric are Allegheny, home to Pittsburgh, at 24.67, and Fulton, at 27.54.
The other 11 - Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Butler, Cambria, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Somerset, Washington and Westmoreland - range from zero (Greene) to 16.61 (Butler).
Three counties showing other high risk factors based on the most recent data dashboard prepared for the state by modelers at Carnegie Mellon University are:
Greene and Fayette, knocked for low ICU bed capacity, but given the low overall case rates there and the proximity to bed-rich Pittsburgh, that would not appear to be a showstopper. Allegheny County, which is marked down for its population density. That can’t change, though perhaps if the Wolf Administration is moving conservatively it could require Allegheny to show even better on other metrics before a move to green. Its recent case trends have also been a little flatter than its neighbors, which have been trending down nicely.
The other region that would appear to be ready for further scrutiny are the remaining seven counties in the state’s north central and northwest regions that were among the initial 24 counties moved to yellow on May 8: Centre, Clinton, Erie, Lycoming, Mercer, Northumberland and Union counties.
In the northwest, Erie has seen an uptick in case numbers in recent days which could be problematic, though its two-week incidence rate of 42.6 remains under the 50-case per 100,000 threshold.
Of the north central counties, Northumberland’s case rate is tracking a little high at 59.4 and has trended up a bit over the last week, but it’s only major risk on the CMU models is a lock of ICU bed capacity. That might be obviated, however, since the county is next-door to Montour, home to flagship hospital of Geisinger Health System, the largest hospital network in the region.
Union and Lycoming counties are showing nice drops in case rates, while Centre and Clinton counties have been pretty stable over the past week.
That’s what we can see from the charts. Of course, it’s up to Wolf, Levine and their advisors to make the call.
Next week, the first group of midstate counties will be completing their second week in yellow, and we’ll be able to take a deeper dive into their prospects for going green. That’s also when the last group of counties in the state’s red phase, including Philadelphia and its suburban “collar” counties and the Lehigh Valley, are scheduled to move to yellow.
The 625 new cases of COVID-19 reported Thursday by the state health department now put the statewide total at 70,042 since the first case was confirmed March 6. The rate of new cases, however, continues to fall. The health department also reported 108 more deaths, putting the official Pennsylvania COVID-19 death toll at 5,373.
What do the colors mean?
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‘not a return to the way things used to be...changing behavior for a ‘new normal...’
uh, no, Tommie and Richie, that’s not the way it’s going to be; there’s no f$%&ing reason not to go back to the way things used to be, just because your fascist minds can’t deal with it...
I travel about the central PA region, and regardless if it’s yellow or not, people are starting to revert to normal. Masks are required in some stores, but I’ve seen people go into Walmart without masking, and there’s no riot over it. I have contractors working for me and they don’t wear masks, nor do I.
Or why not just do your job, Governor, and enforce nursing home regulations? Seems a lot simpler and cheaper, in the long run.
I scream “like Hell” to that “green social”.
“But changing to a new normal”?
NO! We will not endlessly wear masks and lengthen lines for the fake 6’ claerance!
Amazing that anyone is taking orders from a balding middle-aged lunatic who thinks he is a woman. June 5 is as long as this is going to go. After this date, people will totally ignore stay at home orders or anything to do with COV19 regardless what Wolfe or his transsexual Health Secretary have to say about it.
The goalpost moving teams are suited up and ready to play.
Green phase sucks as well.
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